Trading NADEX Knock-Outs

[expiated]

The measure corresponding to the slope of the 45-minute baseline in the lower-panel price anomaly channel had climbed above 0.09. So then, it would seem that this might be reason to nix waiting for major pullbacks and looking instead to enter positions following minor pullbacks in the 2½-minute trend line.

You have already noted that a reading greater than 0.09 or less than -0.09 on the slope of the 45-minute baseline histogram in the lower-panel price anomaly channel suggests a trending asset supported by a substantial amount of momentum.

Well, go ahead and add this to the same category of observations...

When there are a number of bars on the lower-panel price anomaly channel histogram corresponding to the 15-minute baseline that are breaching the 0.0226 or -0.0226 level(s), this too suggests a trending asset supported by monster momentum.

Obviously, when BOTH conditions are present, you have all the more reason to look to enter positions following minor pullbacks in the 2½-minute trend line.

 

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I just realized that the simple moving averages I'm using to represent the 2½- and 6-minute baselines match up exactly and almost exactly with the same two moving averages I was using to identify and then confirm short-term reversals on one-minute charts seven years ago!

This solidifies the validity of these two measures (in my mind) if, after all this time, I've found that I've returned to them without even thinking about.

 

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Obviously, when BOTH conditions are present, you have all the more reason to look to enter positions following minor pullbacks in the 2½-minute trend line.

I just tested this out by purchasing an AUDJPY five-minute binary option put contract via the PocketOption platform...

Had I purchased a Nadex knock-out instead, I would have been able to cash out right now with a $20.00 profit.

 

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Thursday | May 5, 2022 | 5:30 PM PST
Trading Based on the Six-minute Price Range Envelope

These are initial observations, so I do not attest to their correctness at all, and they are, in fact, very much subject to change over the next few days (perhaps even likely to).

That said, when the eureka price range envelope is sloping sharply (i.e., beyond the 0.0226 or -0.0226 lower-panel histogram level) and price pulls back to a relative position within the six-minute price range envelope away from the direction of the trajectory of the 15-minute trend line to the point that it reaches the 0.65672 or -0.65672 level on the lower-panel price anomaly channel, start watching closely for a reversal in the 2½-minute baseline. Trades executed at such moments are likely to be profitable.

Or should price pull all the way back to the 1.61762 or -1.61762 measure before evidencing signs of coming out of the retreat, one has even greater justification for executing a trade.

And finally, at the 2.57852 or -2.57852 level(s), there is a significantly increased probability that the asset will reverse direction to revert toward the mean, regardless if it is positioned on the side of the 15-minute baseline that opposes the associated trend or is leading it.

 

[expiated]

Friday | May 6, 2022 | 12:30 AM PST
Glory Be to God

Both of these trades were profitable, despite the fact that I had to place the orders and then walk away, and in spite of the fact that the entry levels turned out to be nowhere near where the optimum levels were ultimately found.

In my mind, this attests to the validity of everything I'm about to write (or copy and paste) so I only hope that the favor I am encountering in this demo account continues (and actually accelerates) when I go back to trading my live account mid May based on the new Bias Overlap version of NPP.

 

[expiated]

HOW TO RECOGNIZE A REVERSAL IN THE 15-MINUTE PRICE FLOW

After pulling back to the half of the eureka price range envelope that is opposite the trajectory of the 15-minute baseline and reversing direction to form a hook that realigns the course of the 2½-minute baseline with the angle of the 15-minute baseline, the candlesticks will fail to follow through and suspend their progress so that they never make it to the other half of the channel.

Instead, they will almost immediately change course so that the 2½-minute baseline will turn itself back around and resume its trip away from the slope of the 15-minute baseline, and in the process, will in short order, begin pulling the slower measure in the same direction that it (i.e., the 2½-minute baseline) is going.

When this happens, a reversal in price flow from a 15-minute perspective, has just occurred.

 

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TWO MORE WAYS TO CONFIRM A REVERSAL IN THE 15-MINUTE PRICE FLOW

• The six-minute baseline will cross over to the other side of the 15-minute baseline.
• The corresponding baseline will begin angling in the other direction (but that was already mentioned in the previous post).

Recall that intraday reversals are also confirmed by candlesticks reaching and maintaining contact with the bands of the dynamic five-minute price range envelope.

 

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THIS IS AN INITIAL LIST OF ALTERNATIVE ENTRY LEVELS AND THEIR CORRESPONDING TAKE-PROFIT TARGETS…

PROSPECTIVE ENTRY LEVELS:

1. The "trailing" or "far" side (opposing the direction of the 15-minute measures) of the five-minute price range envelope.
2. The "trailing" or "far" side (opposing the direction of the 15-minute measures) of the six-minute price range envelope.
3. The "trade zone." This is defined as the area between sloping AND synchronized 15- and 45-minute baselines.
4. The "wrong half" of an obviously sloping 45-minute baseline (or price range envelope).

CORRESPONDING PROSPECTIVE TAKE-PROFIT TARGETS:

1. The "leading" side (ceiling or floor) of the five-minute price range envelope
2. The "leading" side (ceiling or floor) of the six-minute price range envelope
3. The inner-top band of the eureka price range envelope (at 0.08% deviation).

 

[expiated]

Much earlier today, I was expecting USDCHF to keep falling, especially since the six-minute baseline was bearish. Of course, the fact that candlesticks were painting at or near the extreme outer (lower) band of the 45-minute price range envelope was reason enough to at least entertain the possibility that the rate might reverse course, especially since the 2½-minute baseline was bullish. Yet, the 15-minute trend was so strong, I thought it might simply keep gradually pushing the limit lower. Yet, that's not what happened...

Of course, if and when I start trading full-time, hopefully around the middle of this month, this won't be an issue because I will simply wait for the market to show me for itself exactly when would be the perfect time to get in.

But in the meantime, I would like some way to get a better handle on where price is actually likely to go next. As I studied the pair’s moves, it seemed to me like the 2½-minute baseline was the one extreme where it might happen to be at any given time, and the six-minute baseline was the other.

I was therefore thinking that if I code the average of the two of them, I would get a "Projected Price Indicator" that would come very close to plotting the price that is eventually generated in real time.

Projected Price Indicator

 

[expiated]

Friday | May 6, 2022 | 7:12 AM PST

This Bias Overlap trade is looking for a $7.00 profit, with the take-profit target set at the upper inner band of the eureka price range envelope at 0.08% deviation.