Trading NADEX Knock-Outs
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I purchased USDCAD, but am not using a take-profit target at the moment given how much room is available above for the pair to climb the 19-minute price range.
(Note to Self: The five-minute chart did not let you see enough by giving you a wide enough view, so you converted all the standard indicators to 15-minutes. Your proprietary candlestick body multiplied by 12 indicator could not be easily converted, of course, so you left it as it was and discovered that, as with the 19-hour price flow, generally speaking, when candlesticks are painting in the bottom half of this range, you should only be selling. When they are painting in the upper half, you should only be buying.
Since AUDJPY is in the upper half of BOTH of these ranges [the new measure approximates 8.25 hours], technically, you should be looking for opportunities to buy this pair ONLY under these extremely bullish conditions, and not to sell it.)
(Note to Self: The five-minute chart did not let you see enough by giving you a wide enough view, so you converted all the standard indicators to 15-minutes. Your proprietary candlestick body multiplied by 12 indicator could not be easily converted, of course, so you left it as it was and discovered that, as with the 19-hour price flow, generally speaking, when candlesticks are painting in the bottom half of this range, you should only be selling. When they are painting in the upper half, you should only be buying.
Since AUDJPY is in the upper half of BOTH of these ranges [the new measure approximates 8.25 hours], technically, you should be looking for opportunities to buy this pair ONLY under these extremely bullish conditions, and not to sell it.)
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Correction: The new measure approximates 2.36 hours and NOT 8.25 hours.
(This concept based on the confluence of the lower or upper halves of three key price ranges [i.e., two-and-a-third hours, 9 hours and 18 hours] is looking very interesting. I am anxious to pursue it further. It leaves virtually no room for doubt as to whether one should be looking to buy or sell any given currency pair.)
(This concept based on the confluence of the lower or upper halves of three key price ranges [i.e., two-and-a-third hours, 9 hours and 18 hours] is looking very interesting. I am anxious to pursue it further. It leaves virtually no room for doubt as to whether one should be looking to buy or sell any given currency pair.)
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All of the Knock-outs from yesterday to which I assigned a take-profit target either bought or sold to close for the $8 net return...
The only loss was one of the USDCAD Knock-outs. However, thank goodness the Knock-out that left more wiggle-room to maneuver, should price wish to fall farther, settled at full value to help offset the damage.
I went back to AUDUSD to note when the trigger signal to sell the pair actually sounded. It turned out to be ten hours (halfway between the last two vertical lines) after I initially entered the position (the first vertical line).
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Thursday | April 14, 2022 | 1:30 PM PST
I'm going to call the latest NPP forecast methodology, the one involving the 2⅓-, 4- and 18-hour price ranges, "bias overlap," and plan on making all my future trading decisions with this principle in mind.
Because its bias overlap is bullish, AUDJPY can be bought when the 20- and 45-minute baselines reverse north again, but unfortunately, I will not be around to monitor this. And since the bullish overlap leaves a whole lot of room for price to pull back, I will NOT send "middle knock-out" orders to buy the pair either.
Without going into details, based on market structure, price ranges and bias overlap, these are the orders I plan to send in at this time, but with a ten-pip profit-target now:
Hmmm... there are none available. NADEX must already be closed in observance of Good Friay.
I'm going to call the latest NPP forecast methodology, the one involving the 2⅓-, 4- and 18-hour price ranges, "bias overlap," and plan on making all my future trading decisions with this principle in mind.
Because its bias overlap is bullish, AUDJPY can be bought when the 20- and 45-minute baselines reverse north again, but unfortunately, I will not be around to monitor this. And since the bullish overlap leaves a whole lot of room for price to pull back, I will NOT send "middle knock-out" orders to buy the pair either.
Without going into details, based on market structure, price ranges and bias overlap, these are the orders I plan to send in at this time, but with a ten-pip profit-target now:
Hmmm... there are none available. NADEX must already be closed in observance of Good Friay.
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Friday | April 15, 2022 | 2:40 PM PST
Not being able to trade via the Nadex platform today motivated me to perform some analysis, which found me introducing/injecting the 45-minute price range envelope into the Bias Overlap NPP methodology. Certain aspects of this measure are more-or-less consistent, but to take full advantage of them, I had to move down from 15-minute charts to one-minute charts.
And yet, to get the whole picture, I then had to move up from one-minute charts to five-minute charts. These are my conclusions…
Though you are using the 45- (and 20-) minute baseline(s) to represent reversals in the intraday trend, rely on the 1¾-hour baseline (which lags during reversals) to reveal the ultimate (overall general) direction in which the intraday price flow is tending to drift.
Fluctuations (reversals) within the 45-minute price range are confirmed by the 15-minute baseline, along with its positional relationships with the proprietary 5- and 10-minute measures.
It appears to be hypothetically possible to reap returns over and over again by entering NADEX Knock-Out positions as these "inner reversals" switch from a course opposed to the slope of the 45-minute baseline to a trajectory aligned with it, and then exit with one's profit as soon as this situation reverses.
During ranging markets, the most significant (and thus, potentially profitable) of these reversals occurs near the 0.10% derivation level/band. If price does not turn around at this level, the pair is likely initiating a new intraday reversal.
A turn in the 15-minute baseline is confirmed as a fully-fledged reversal if it fails to return to and cross back over the 70-minute baseline. Conversely, it is confirmed as merely a pullback if and when the 15-minute baseline does cross over the 70-minute measure. (It tends not to go beyond 0.20% deviation in more volatile/liquid markets, or beyond 0.30% deviation in even the most extreme markets.
Using the above criteria/guidelines will hopefully prevent you from being taken in my head fakes and false positives so that you only enter positions that will unfold to yield positive outcomes.
Not being able to trade via the Nadex platform today motivated me to perform some analysis, which found me introducing/injecting the 45-minute price range envelope into the Bias Overlap NPP methodology. Certain aspects of this measure are more-or-less consistent, but to take full advantage of them, I had to move down from 15-minute charts to one-minute charts.
And yet, to get the whole picture, I then had to move up from one-minute charts to five-minute charts. These are my conclusions…
Though you are using the 45- (and 20-) minute baseline(s) to represent reversals in the intraday trend, rely on the 1¾-hour baseline (which lags during reversals) to reveal the ultimate (overall general) direction in which the intraday price flow is tending to drift.
Fluctuations (reversals) within the 45-minute price range are confirmed by the 15-minute baseline, along with its positional relationships with the proprietary 5- and 10-minute measures.
It appears to be hypothetically possible to reap returns over and over again by entering NADEX Knock-Out positions as these "inner reversals" switch from a course opposed to the slope of the 45-minute baseline to a trajectory aligned with it, and then exit with one's profit as soon as this situation reverses.
During ranging markets, the most significant (and thus, potentially profitable) of these reversals occurs near the 0.10% derivation level/band. If price does not turn around at this level, the pair is likely initiating a new intraday reversal.
A turn in the 15-minute baseline is confirmed as a fully-fledged reversal if it fails to return to and cross back over the 70-minute baseline. Conversely, it is confirmed as merely a pullback if and when the 15-minute baseline does cross over the 70-minute measure. (It tends not to go beyond 0.20% deviation in more volatile/liquid markets, or beyond 0.30% deviation in even the most extreme markets.
Using the above criteria/guidelines will hopefully prevent you from being taken in my head fakes and false positives so that you only enter positions that will unfold to yield positive outcomes.
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NUMERICAL PRICE PREDICTION BIAS OVERLAP PROTOCOL
So the thing is, while I bear in mind that the 1¾-hour baseline reveals the ultimate direction in which the intraday price flow is tending to drift, I must not forget to use the four-hour measure to keep track of the direction in which the day-to-day price flow is drifting.
And even more importantly, though the 45-minute baseline tracks the intraday trend, the intraday bias is conveyed by the three-hour measure. And generally speaking, the three-hour bias will not be violated by the 45-minute price flow.
For example, if the 45-minute measures are headed north, and the three-hour measures are headed south, though I would want to enter bullish positions, I better have in mind that their present direction is not going to last a relatively long period of time because they are fighting against the three-hour price flow!
So, in a nutshell, I'd say what I ought to be doing is ONLY entering positions when the 15-minute baseline is reversing direction within the 45-minute price range envelope(s) to resume a course aligned with the slopes of similarly angled 1¾-hour, 3-hour and 4-hour baselines—ESPECIALLY if the 45-minute price flow is headed the same way.
That said, if, in the process of performing such a maneuver, candlesticks cross to the other side of the 70-minute baseline, to avoid getting caught in a head fake/false positive (i.e., a fully-fledged reversal) trades should not be executed until and unless the candles return to the "proper" side of the 70-minute measure.
UPDATE:
Oh yes! Plotting these two measures on my five-minute charts is adding so much clarity I will be anxious to see how it translates into performance results next week.
Further analysis revealed that there were two important measures from the one-hour chart configuration that I failed to plot on the five-minute version. They were the day-to-day price flow, or the four-hour measure, and the proprietary three-hour measure, which cannot be duplicated using standard indicators, and must therefor be substituted by an approximation.
So the thing is, while I bear in mind that the 1¾-hour baseline reveals the ultimate direction in which the intraday price flow is tending to drift, I must not forget to use the four-hour measure to keep track of the direction in which the day-to-day price flow is drifting.
And even more importantly, though the 45-minute baseline tracks the intraday trend, the intraday bias is conveyed by the three-hour measure. And generally speaking, the three-hour bias will not be violated by the 45-minute price flow.
For example, if the 45-minute measures are headed north, and the three-hour measures are headed south, though I would want to enter bullish positions, I better have in mind that their present direction is not going to last a relatively long period of time because they are fighting against the three-hour price flow!
So, in a nutshell, I'd say what I ought to be doing is ONLY entering positions when the 15-minute baseline is reversing direction within the 45-minute price range envelope(s) to resume a course aligned with the slopes of similarly angled 1¾-hour, 3-hour and 4-hour baselines—ESPECIALLY if the 45-minute price flow is headed the same way.
That said, if, in the process of performing such a maneuver, candlesticks cross to the other side of the 70-minute baseline, to avoid getting caught in a head fake/false positive (i.e., a fully-fledged reversal) trades should not be executed until and unless the candles return to the "proper" side of the 70-minute measure.
UPDATE:
Oh yes! Plotting these two measures on my five-minute charts is adding so much clarity I will be anxious to see how it translates into performance results next week.
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Tuesday | April 19, 2022 | 3:30 PM PST
It appears that this is where I begin to go deep with respect to this new (in certain respects) approach to trading Forex. But, given that it evolved out of this journal, rather than start a new thread, I will simply treat it as the next "chapter" under this same topic/title.
And with that, I will start with my analysis of AUDUSD. When making Bias Overlap forecasts, just as important as the 20-minute baseline are measures such as the 45-minute price range envelope, the 1⅔-hour baseline, and the four-hour trend. (Note that the eight-minute baseline was not even mentioned. Clearly, we must now be taking a slightly longer-term view of the Forex market.)
Seeing as how the four-hour trend is currently bullish, I only want to be buying this asset. Ideally that would be if and when price finds support (i.e., the 20-minute baseline transitions from a southbound trajectory to a course headed north) at or near the lower region(s) of the 45-minute price range, between 0.7356 up to 0.7372. This means waiting quite a while, given as how the pair is currently surging... up at around 0.7390.
But wait, it's even worse than that, because a long position should not be entered from the lower level(s) of the 45-minute measure until after the price range envelope has transitioned from bearish to bullish (I do believe).
No, that's not true because the envelop is already bullish. So, nix that last statement and go with what said originally.
It appears that this is where I begin to go deep with respect to this new (in certain respects) approach to trading Forex. But, given that it evolved out of this journal, rather than start a new thread, I will simply treat it as the next "chapter" under this same topic/title.
And with that, I will start with my analysis of AUDUSD. When making Bias Overlap forecasts, just as important as the 20-minute baseline are measures such as the 45-minute price range envelope, the 1⅔-hour baseline, and the four-hour trend. (Note that the eight-minute baseline was not even mentioned. Clearly, we must now be taking a slightly longer-term view of the Forex market.)
Seeing as how the four-hour trend is currently bullish, I only want to be buying this asset. Ideally that would be if and when price finds support (i.e., the 20-minute baseline transitions from a southbound trajectory to a course headed north) at or near the lower region(s) of the 45-minute price range, between 0.7356 up to 0.7372. This means waiting quite a while, given as how the pair is currently surging... up at around 0.7390.
But wait, it's even worse than that, because a long position should not be entered from the lower level(s) of the 45-minute measure until after the price range envelope has transitioned from bearish to bullish (I do believe).
No, that's not true because the envelop is already bullish. So, nix that last statement and go with what said originally.
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Given the long wait, I might be able to reap a handful of bucks within the next hour or so via one of the ridiculously risk-to-reward structured in-the-money binary option contracts (in my demo account, since I no longer make trades like this in my live account), based on the strong probability that the pair is not going to violate the upper regions of the 45-minute price range, and on repeating patterns...
Final Outcome...
The USDCAD is seeing its one-hour baseline-crossing below the four-hour measure. This is often followed by an extended trip in that same direction, so I will be curious to see if that's what happens this time. If so, a binary put option might be the right call.
(A binary put option would have worked our well, but I never purchased one.)
Final Outcome...
The USDCAD is seeing its one-hour baseline-crossing below the four-hour measure. This is often followed by an extended trip in that same direction, so I will be curious to see if that's what happens this time. If so, a binary put option might be the right call.
(A binary put option would have worked our well, but I never purchased one.)
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I'm not waiting for the ideal moments for these demo trades. Yet and still, I would like to have more of a definitive means of forecasting when a turn really is going to follow through or not. In the meantime, it's looking like reading structure via the 45-minute price range in conjunction with the four-hour trend is more reliable than anything else.
With this is mind, I am purchasing an AUDUSD knock-out, seeing as how price is at the bottom of the first level of the 45-minute price range with a bullish four-hour trend line. I'm buying the top knock-out, the one with the most favorable risk-to-reward ratio, due to the excellent structure of this particular setup, and I'm setting my take-profit target at ten bucks...
With this is mind, I am purchasing an AUDUSD knock-out, seeing as how price is at the bottom of the first level of the 45-minute price range with a bullish four-hour trend line. I'm buying the top knock-out, the one with the most favorable risk-to-reward ratio, due to the excellent structure of this particular setup, and I'm setting my take-profit target at ten bucks...