Trading Methods & Techniques
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Magna
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Nicodemus,
Interesting observation which I've also had in the last month or so. I used candlesticks from day one, like them, but notice that the various flag formations do "jump out" considerably more with bar charts. I struggle with this because while I definitely like that advantage of bars, I also like the tremendous advantage of instantly seeing close-up and close-down days with candles (something that's not the least bit obvious with bars). And with candles I can also instantly determine the main "body" of the move vs. the extremes (i.e., wicks or shadows), again something difficult to quickly discern with bars. As of now I haven't settled on anything.
Interesting observation which I've also had in the last month or so. I used candlesticks from day one, like them, but notice that the various flag formations do "jump out" considerably more with bar charts. I struggle with this because while I definitely like that advantage of bars, I also like the tremendous advantage of instantly seeing close-up and close-down days with candles (something that's not the least bit obvious with bars). And with candles I can also instantly determine the main "body" of the move vs. the extremes (i.e., wicks or shadows), again something difficult to quickly discern with bars. As of now I haven't settled on anything.
I believe that you have the best of intentions here - that you have appointed yourself to be the protector of the "little guy", the poor, ignorant trader who cannot look out for himself.
I find several flaws in your logic though. First and foremost, every trader must learn, whether he is learning from books, free posts on threads at places such as msn, or in chat rooms, to take responsibility for his own trades, and his capital.
When I buy a book on candlestick charting, I have no guarantee that if I buy a stock that meets the criteria of a reversal, or continuation, it will actually make me money. At the same time, trading the same set-up may make money for another trader. How about the author, will he make money every time he trades one of his set-ups? If not, does that invalidate the set-up?
When I attend a 4 year university, am I guaranteed success? Why are the professors of finance there, teaching fundamental analysis, accounting, marketing, etc etc.? And if it is because they couldn't hack it in the real world, does that mean what they are teaching has no value. Why doesn't every student enjoy the same success or failure, they were all there?
I could go on and on but life calls.
My point is, you seem to have no place for personal responsibility in your thinking. The bottom line, we can take a group of people, show them a set-up and trade it ourselves and the results will not be everyone makes the same profit(loss) - there are too many variables.
I agree that constant hyping of web sites and services diminishes the value and integrity of the board. Having someone take the amount of time your are talking about, to prove their methods or abilities have value is a waste, - because the only thing that really matters is what will make you money, not them. And the way to learn is to explore. Everything you know was taught to you by someone.
Eric
I find several flaws in your logic though. First and foremost, every trader must learn, whether he is learning from books, free posts on threads at places such as msn, or in chat rooms, to take responsibility for his own trades, and his capital.
When I buy a book on candlestick charting, I have no guarantee that if I buy a stock that meets the criteria of a reversal, or continuation, it will actually make me money. At the same time, trading the same set-up may make money for another trader. How about the author, will he make money every time he trades one of his set-ups? If not, does that invalidate the set-up?
When I attend a 4 year university, am I guaranteed success? Why are the professors of finance there, teaching fundamental analysis, accounting, marketing, etc etc.? And if it is because they couldn't hack it in the real world, does that mean what they are teaching has no value. Why doesn't every student enjoy the same success or failure, they were all there?
I could go on and on but life calls.
My point is, you seem to have no place for personal responsibility in your thinking. The bottom line, we can take a group of people, show them a set-up and trade it ourselves and the results will not be everyone makes the same profit(loss) - there are too many variables.
I agree that constant hyping of web sites and services diminishes the value and integrity of the board. Having someone take the amount of time your are talking about, to prove their methods or abilities have value is a waste, - because the only thing that really matters is what will make you money, not them. And the way to learn is to explore. Everything you know was taught to you by someone.
Eric
Magna
Administrator
dufferdon,
I think your desire for CPA validated trading results is a fruitless quest.
if I register in an accredited university engineering program and take a bridge building course I can be very sure that the tools I am being given will be able to be used to successfully build a bridge at least by the profession in general and that the professor responsible for the course has achieved clearly recognized and verified professional standards.
I don't see how comparing training for bridge building and trading is the least bit valid. If you took any range of people with varying skills and intelligence, had them follow a plan using the same materials, they would come up with the exact same bridge. Time after time. And that's whether the professor teaching the "accredited" course had ever personally built a bridge in his life.
He is asked to put up about $200 to $300 per month at a chatroom to see if there is something really useful there...This will typically cost the consumer $500 to $1000.
That's true, and it's a relatively small price to pay for education, for extended "trial" if you will, to see if the chatroom is effective and suits your style. Gawd, when I think of the thousands upon thousands upon thousands of dollars I wasted at various university levels for useless courses, books, etc. it boggles the mind in comparison.
Having tried a number of chatrooms I found it quickly became obvious to me which ones were worth the "education" and which ones were not for me. Imposing your accountability standards, besides the impossibility of it, would exclude the many fine teachers and mentors who might no longer trade, or like many sports trainers and coaches are superb at what they do although they don't or can't personally play the sport.
And even if the trading teacher still trades, submits to your quarterly CPA review, shows an ongoing profitability...so what. That doesn't mean the student-trader is any more likely to succeed, as there are far too many factors outside of the teaching that impact the bottom line. After all, this is not bridge building. Using your example of Tony Oz, re-read the threads on using his scans and you will see continual frustration, losses, etc. And it has nothing to do with his scans, as Tony is quite effective and successful using them. So him submitting to an ongoing CPA review will accomplish nothing.
I think your desire for CPA validated trading results is a fruitless quest.
if I register in an accredited university engineering program and take a bridge building course I can be very sure that the tools I am being given will be able to be used to successfully build a bridge at least by the profession in general and that the professor responsible for the course has achieved clearly recognized and verified professional standards.
I don't see how comparing training for bridge building and trading is the least bit valid. If you took any range of people with varying skills and intelligence, had them follow a plan using the same materials, they would come up with the exact same bridge. Time after time. And that's whether the professor teaching the "accredited" course had ever personally built a bridge in his life.
He is asked to put up about $200 to $300 per month at a chatroom to see if there is something really useful there...This will typically cost the consumer $500 to $1000.
That's true, and it's a relatively small price to pay for education, for extended "trial" if you will, to see if the chatroom is effective and suits your style. Gawd, when I think of the thousands upon thousands upon thousands of dollars I wasted at various university levels for useless courses, books, etc. it boggles the mind in comparison.
Having tried a number of chatrooms I found it quickly became obvious to me which ones were worth the "education" and which ones were not for me. Imposing your accountability standards, besides the impossibility of it, would exclude the many fine teachers and mentors who might no longer trade, or like many sports trainers and coaches are superb at what they do although they don't or can't personally play the sport.
And even if the trading teacher still trades, submits to your quarterly CPA review, shows an ongoing profitability...so what. That doesn't mean the student-trader is any more likely to succeed, as there are far too many factors outside of the teaching that impact the bottom line. After all, this is not bridge building. Using your example of Tony Oz, re-read the threads on using his scans and you will see continual frustration, losses, etc. And it has nothing to do with his scans, as Tony is quite effective and successful using them. So him submitting to an ongoing CPA review will accomplish nothing.
Magna
Administrator
Nicodemus,
Has there been a thread on candles vs. bars?
Not that I've ever seen and, truthfully, I don't think it would be of much value. Each has their advantages and disadvantages, and each is more (or less) applicable to various trading styles. Ultimately, as it all comes down to pattern recognition, it will depend on your final (heh heh) trading methodology as to which is more suitable. Neither approach is "better" or "worse" than the other.
Has there been a thread on candles vs. bars?
Not that I've ever seen and, truthfully, I don't think it would be of much value. Each has their advantages and disadvantages, and each is more (or less) applicable to various trading styles. Ultimately, as it all comes down to pattern recognition, it will depend on your final (heh heh) trading methodology as to which is more suitable. Neither approach is "better" or "worse" than the other.
Ericdh says to dufferdon:
>My point is, you seem to have no place for
>personal responsibility in your thinking.
Wow, did you ever miss his point. He is actually *promoting* personal responsibility for *all* involved.
I have a responsibility to choose the car that is right for my needs, but the manufacturer also has a personal responsibility NOT to mislead me by telling me that the car gets 80mpg when in fact it only gets 30.
Magna:
>Imposing your accountability standards, besides
>the impossibility of it, would exclude the many
>fine teachers and mentors who might no longer
>trade
First off, if someone tells me they are an educator...fine. In the sports world, some of the best coaches and trainers have never turned a four minute mile, but there training result speak for themselves. But if a site is selling calls, like many sites are (or at least using them for marketing), then a smart person could reasonably ask for some evidence that the calls are real and profitable.
And where do you get this "impossibility" of it? It's quite possible and not that hard...For a moment, compare Underground Trader with MTrader T/A: At Underground Trader, if you go to the trade logs and compare them to the nightly recap there is simply no way to match them all up. If you do the same at Mtrader T/A, they match up precisely.
Now, while neither system is fraud proof, whose records would give you the most confidence as being "real"?
JB
>My point is, you seem to have no place for
>personal responsibility in your thinking.
Wow, did you ever miss his point. He is actually *promoting* personal responsibility for *all* involved.
I have a responsibility to choose the car that is right for my needs, but the manufacturer also has a personal responsibility NOT to mislead me by telling me that the car gets 80mpg when in fact it only gets 30.
Magna:
>Imposing your accountability standards, besides
>the impossibility of it, would exclude the many
>fine teachers and mentors who might no longer
>trade
First off, if someone tells me they are an educator...fine. In the sports world, some of the best coaches and trainers have never turned a four minute mile, but there training result speak for themselves. But if a site is selling calls, like many sites are (or at least using them for marketing), then a smart person could reasonably ask for some evidence that the calls are real and profitable.
And where do you get this "impossibility" of it? It's quite possible and not that hard...For a moment, compare Underground Trader with MTrader T/A: At Underground Trader, if you go to the trade logs and compare them to the nightly recap there is simply no way to match them all up. If you do the same at Mtrader T/A, they match up precisely.
Now, while neither system is fraud proof, whose records would give you the most confidence as being "real"?
JB
neo, hr,
How are things going? Haven't chatted with you for a while.
==============================================
"So basically my fear of pulling the trigger comes from hearing "it can go up, or it can sink down noone really predicts the future" too much. I can be looking for a stock that is waay outside upper BB and normally ODDS say go short as a SKY. but thern I think Hey, this may be another bull market, lemme enter on this pullback. Throw in multiple timeframes and there you have a confused wannabe trader with awesome enthusiasm but no real guidance. And I cannot afford to try it all and get left without any more money and opportunity to try some more. im not whining here but the more I try the more I feel that only way to start trading and not loose too much and get frustrated and dissappointed is to have a mentor , someone whos been through it all and who can guide you little by little. Now, when I could get Candletrader or Tony to move to Croatia he he ..."
==============================================
You've read a lot of stuff, probably far more than I have and you've observed the market far longer than I have. However, it strikes me that you are still doing things in your head. Mark Douglas puts it beautifully in Trading in the Zone, "You can try to eliminate risk by learning about as many market variables as possible. (I call this the black hole of analysis, because it is the path of ultimate frustration.) Or you can learn how to redefine your trading activities in such a way that you truly accept the risk, and you're no longer afraid" (pp. 14-15).
I've never paper traded and personally I don't quite believe it. Paper trading may only be good to determine whether a method or a system works, but it won't teach you something about yourself. When real money is on the line, things change. Right now, you've got a lot of knowledge about strategies and supposed discipline in your head, but the truth of the matter is that they count only when you see your capital eaten away by a trade that is going against you. The removal of fear and recklessness can only come through experience and a painful process of remaking yourself. And there is no shortcut.
Trading has changed my personality. I wasn't a risk taker, but I am now far better in taking measured risks in my life than I was before. So trading has positive (or negative) ramifications throughout other areas of your life. However, until you faced those demons of greed, fear, recklessness and overcome them, good market analysis and strategies could give you a false sense of security.
Someone puts it aptly on this board. You can trade as a hobby; you can trade for your retirement, or you can trade as a full-time trader. And there are different levels of expertise and commitments demanded. Regardless, you still have to face the same demons of greed, fear and recklessness if you want to be successful, no matter what timeframes you are talking about. And it is only when real money is on the line that those demons will appear in full force. I'm not putting down on techniques and strategies, but I am just saying that no matter how good these are, you still have to fight those demons and overcome them.
Neo, I didn't have a mentor. I wished I could have had one. But haven't you learnt something from the more mature traders on this board? (I personally have.) Do you know that you are already being coached? No mentors can trade for you and I don't think any trader needs one single mentor.
I hope this helps.
Best,
stockopt.
How are things going? Haven't chatted with you for a while.
==============================================
"So basically my fear of pulling the trigger comes from hearing "it can go up, or it can sink down noone really predicts the future" too much. I can be looking for a stock that is waay outside upper BB and normally ODDS say go short as a SKY. but thern I think Hey, this may be another bull market, lemme enter on this pullback. Throw in multiple timeframes and there you have a confused wannabe trader with awesome enthusiasm but no real guidance. And I cannot afford to try it all and get left without any more money and opportunity to try some more. im not whining here but the more I try the more I feel that only way to start trading and not loose too much and get frustrated and dissappointed is to have a mentor , someone whos been through it all and who can guide you little by little. Now, when I could get Candletrader or Tony to move to Croatia he he ..."
==============================================
You've read a lot of stuff, probably far more than I have and you've observed the market far longer than I have. However, it strikes me that you are still doing things in your head. Mark Douglas puts it beautifully in Trading in the Zone, "You can try to eliminate risk by learning about as many market variables as possible. (I call this the black hole of analysis, because it is the path of ultimate frustration.) Or you can learn how to redefine your trading activities in such a way that you truly accept the risk, and you're no longer afraid" (pp. 14-15).
I've never paper traded and personally I don't quite believe it. Paper trading may only be good to determine whether a method or a system works, but it won't teach you something about yourself. When real money is on the line, things change. Right now, you've got a lot of knowledge about strategies and supposed discipline in your head, but the truth of the matter is that they count only when you see your capital eaten away by a trade that is going against you. The removal of fear and recklessness can only come through experience and a painful process of remaking yourself. And there is no shortcut.
Trading has changed my personality. I wasn't a risk taker, but I am now far better in taking measured risks in my life than I was before. So trading has positive (or negative) ramifications throughout other areas of your life. However, until you faced those demons of greed, fear, recklessness and overcome them, good market analysis and strategies could give you a false sense of security.
Someone puts it aptly on this board. You can trade as a hobby; you can trade for your retirement, or you can trade as a full-time trader. And there are different levels of expertise and commitments demanded. Regardless, you still have to face the same demons of greed, fear and recklessness if you want to be successful, no matter what timeframes you are talking about. And it is only when real money is on the line that those demons will appear in full force. I'm not putting down on techniques and strategies, but I am just saying that no matter how good these are, you still have to fight those demons and overcome them.
Neo, I didn't have a mentor. I wished I could have had one. But haven't you learnt something from the more mature traders on this board? (I personally have.) Do you know that you are already being coached? No mentors can trade for you and I don't think any trader needs one single mentor.
I hope this helps.
Best,
stockopt.
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