Trading Math - Part I

Quote from bwolinsky:

Might have been the quickest profits on my sim trades before I go live with a 60 cent profit on GC in less than 15 seconds. And it is trend following price physics and it does get in and out all day long and there aren't any monthly losses so close drawdown is zero, win percentages trend following wise are 85-99+%, not the 40% you've seen, and I don't see any system with risk/rewards of 1:20, the profit factor is above 15 on the longs, but the return on Max Portfolio drawdown is a whopping 275 times.

No, I doubt a trend following system can get much better. You should really look into it.
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Yes, interesting.

You must know, i dont care much about all that names, the traders give their styles.

I only trade my setups and thats all. In and out of the trade in the given time.

I also did research on "Let it go trades", what you might could say is a like trend following system. but i only trade the cycles, doesnt matter if the bigger picture is in a trend or not....

But this "Let it go trades" are much more difficult to manage, only for holding it longer to gain a better risk/reward on the trade.
On the one hand, it sounds like a good idea.
But on the other side, i am a skilled trader and i can make quicker money and more money with leveraging up, while doing more trades in the same time. thats why i have decided i dont need that.

i am happy what i have, and i dont need more.
Keep it simple.

Best Regards....

IMO, trading is about making money, not having the best possible system. how you make money, doesnt matter, ONLY the results are counting...
 
Quote from intradaybill:

Statement 1:

For any trading system, with any parameters, if there is no target quit time or target profit after which it quits, eventually there will be total ruin.

I invite all the brains here to either prove or disprove Statement 1.

...and learn something...
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Yes, Bill, this petty example of ruin is quite elementary, really.

Given no quit time or target profit, it is really the no quit time that'll prove as T goes to infinity then the risk of ruin approaches 1.

I don't feel like expressing this mathematically.
 
Quote from HATEtheRisk:

Yes, interesting.

You must know, i dont care much about all that names, the traders give their styles.

I only trade my setups and thats all. In and out of the trade in the given time.

I also did research on "Let it go trades", what you might could say is a like trend following system. but i only trade the cycles, doesnt matter if the bigger picture is in a trend or not....

But this "Let it go trades" are much more difficult to manage, only for holding it longer to gain a better risk/reward on the trade.
On the one hand, it sounds like a good idea.
But on the other side, i am a skilled trader and i can make quicker money and more money with leveraging up, while doing more trades in the same time. thats why i have decided i dont need that.

i am happy what i have, and i dont need more.
Keep it simple.

Best Regards....

IMO, trading is about making money, not having the best possible system. how you make money, doesnt matter, ONLY the results are counting...
More...

Well, I see 9 figures in sight for me and for my most important family and friends, too.

Trading is about making money, you're right, but I think there is something to be said for theories that have validity and sound basis as well as at least 100 pages of explanation. Which could be more technical in nature than in defining the parameters of the system.

I like pairs trading and price physics which is the best form of trend following that has ever been theorized and the results only a complete imbecile would try to deny wrt their robustness.
 
Quote from Random.Capital:

Is this a correct paraphrasing:

"If you stay in a trade forever, you will eventually lose everything."

Which itself is a paraphrase of:

"Everything goes to zero, eventually."
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Yeah this was probably the most obvious from the start and still is but then it would have been a really short thread. :cool:
 
Quote from bwolinsky:
Quote from intradaybill:

Statement 1:

For any trading system, with any parameters, if there is no target quit time or target profit after which it quits, eventually there will be total ruin.

I invite all the brains here to either prove or disprove Statement 1.

...and learn something...
More...
Yes, Bill, this petty example of ruin is quite elementary, really.

Given no quit time or target profit, it is really the no quit time that'll prove as T goes to infinity then the risk of ruin approaches 1.

I don't feel like expressing this mathematically.
More...
Or to be more honest about it, you're not capable of expressing it mathematically.

To quote yourself: "Seriously, why don't you quit pretending or acting like you know or understand this subject?"

Your utter failure to recognize the connection between this and Gambler's Ruin is both laughable and pathetic. Another slackwit with delusions of intelligence.

A simple question for a simpleton: If the win rate is 100%, does the risk of ruin still "approach 1"? :p
 
Mike805 came in without having read the whole thread and noticing that I reformulated the problem better and he lets his poops all over the place again, along with the idiot kut2k2 and some other degenerates, so I will have to say bye for now and thank DontMissTheBus for his contrinution and polite behavior.

Mike805, we are talking about a terminal stop and/or target...read before you make poops...
 
Quote from kut2k2:

You're a slackwitted mouthbreather with delusions of intelligence and reading comprehension. I tried to get you to find out what "disproof" means but once again you proved that a fool can be led to knowledge but it won't make him think.

BTW your presumed knowledge of mathematics is laughable:

Actually, asshole, P{T|0} = 0. That was even stated upfront.

It's back to remedial math for you, maybe the eighth time will stick. :D
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You should see a doctor immediately...
 
Quote from kut2k2:

Good-bye to this thread.
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Go and never come back. Actually you should not have posted your copy and paste here without even giving credit to its author. Please take Mike805 with you. You need eachother.

Go pls...
 
What I don't understand is why there is so much anger? I have yet seen a thread in my 8 years here at ET that would not end up in the mutual insults and outright anger! That is why I do not participate in these discussions anymore although I have much to say on the subject. I have studied the problem discussed here professionally and thoroughly for years. But inviting the flurry of angry remarks is not what I want to get in to. All of you are not intelligent enough to keep this discussion with the spirit of mutual respect and genuine care for other people's opinions.

Cheers,
MAESTO
 
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