Trading Long Straddles

Quote from kinggyppo:

everybody should have a basic working knowledge of excel, it is an amazing program, especially people going into finance. Very easy to port the indicator based data into and out of excel, this is pretty basic stuff. Now if only I could get excel to tell me tomorrow's close.
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If you could rule out 2 numbers in an european roulette wheel, or 3 numbers in an american one, and you could find a casino with no limits, you could own the world in less than a couple of days.

If you could know where all the options and futures bets are placed (wait you can!), you could rule out a few prices where the market is unlikely to go. All could be changed by a new bigger bettor entering the action, but then you could remove your bets from the market, or reverse them. (The Savannah Move / The Reverse Savannah Solo.).

Using EXCEL in a casino is against the law. Be forewarned!.

:confused: :eek::D
 
Quote from eudaemon:

If you could rule out 2 numbers in an european roulette wheel, or 3 numbers in an american one, and you could find a casino with no limits, you could own the world in less than a couple of days.

If you could know where all the options and futures bets are placed (wait you can!), you could rule out a few prices where the market is unlikely to go. All could be changed by a new bigger bettor entering the action, but then you could remove your bets from the market, or reverse them. (The Savannah Move).

Using EXCEL in a casino is against the law. Be forewarned!.

:confused: :eek::D
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I was in a casino a few years back, saw 13 red numbers in a row on the roulette wheel, I dropped a couple hundred, the best was the look from the bit boss, I said I know gamblers fallacy, sure enough red came up again, had a little sweat on my brow when I doubled down, got my black and got the hell out of there, pit boss told me he saw 27 in a row one time!!
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

I was in a casino a few years back, saw 13 red numbers in a row on the roulette wheel, I dropped a couple hundred, the best was the look from the bit boss, I said I know gamblers fallacy, sure enough red came up again, had a little sweat on my brow when I doubled down, got my black and got the hell out of there, pit boss told me he saw 27 in a row one time!!
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Say that by some algo you accurately can rule out 2 numbers, and place equal bets on all other 35 numbers (european wheel has 37 numbers). What is the SURE outcome per each roll of the ball?.

Compounded?.
 
Quote from eudaemon:

Say that by some algo you accurately can rule out 2 numbers, and place equal bets on all other 35 numbers (european wheel has 37 numbers). What is the SURE outcome per each roll of the ball?.

Compounded?.
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your odds are still 1/35 no, or are you saying that you then become the house in which case you would have edge over the long term of roughly 5.26%, not sure how you would compound it.
 
Start with 1000 one dollar chips, and physically do it (sim it in EXCEL). Life will simplify after that. I promise. Remember 2 numbers are ruled out (maybe more if you are skilled, but let's not go there), and you bet in the other 35 numbers an equal bet in each.:cool:

How much do you make per roll?.

It's so simple that people don't see it!.
 
Quote from falconview:

You got me curious about that one. Care to explain the outcome and how it works out?
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You make one winning bet that pays 35 to 1, and 34 losing 1:1 bets to hedge the negative variance. So f...ing simple that it hurts. You win net every roll.

This is the last I post on the subject. Converting that to the futoptions game is a bit harder, but simpler!. So f...ing simple that IT REALLY HURTS!.:D But you don't get to place as many bets per hour...not even close.:(
 
Learning Excel again, doesn´t really thrill me. Used to know it 20 years ago, but haven´t used it since. Isn´t there a FREE CALCULATOR for LONG STRADDLES on ThinkorSwim someplace?
 
Of course I meant all 35 bets are made on the same roll of the ball. The more numbers you can rule out, the bigger your % edge. Much easier than predicting where it is going to land.
 
Reading a bit on Long Straddles. Seems in a 1 month to 2 month straddle buying system. If you apply this money management rule, you boost your profits overall.

1) Close STRADDLE after it loses 10% of the spread value.

2) Let gaining Straddle run.
 
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