Trading Lessons/Insights From Coin Flipping

[intradaybill]

Quote from Mike805:

To imply that I don't know the difference between deterministic and stochastic process is very short sighted. This is an experiment bill.

If you understood the difference you wouldn't be mixing random (pseudo thereoff) processes with deterministic ones. I am glad I helped you realize that.

However the thing in life Mike is not only learning from others who are patient enough to put up with your abrasive character but to also try to improve yourself and start behaving like a human, not like an animal.

 

[Mike805]

Quote from intradaybill:

I don't see what I missed. I said that removing time + random produces positive performance. Before you agreed to that.

Do you want to stay alone in this thread? If everyone leaves, you got no chance to learn anything.

Nope. Never agreed to that. You have the autocorrelation conclusion backwards. Please sit in the corner until you admit your mistake.

I'm pretty sure I'm not alone in this thread, and, if you keep acting like a total douchebag, I'll start complaining about these "everyone is an idiot" comments you constantly make.

Maybe I should start a poll?

Is this intradaybill character a:

(1) Good ol' fashioned troll?
(2) Douchebag, pure and simple?
(3) Just an a**hole.

I'm voting for 1 now as you won't leave this thread alone.

 

[Mike805]

Quote from intradaybill:

If you understood the difference you wouldn't be mixing random (pseudo thereoff) processes with deterministic ones. I am glad I helped you realize that.

However the thing in life Mike is not only learning from others who are patient enough to put up with your abrasive character but to also try to improve yourself and start behaving like a human, not like an animal.

Hate to break the news to you... but, I mixed on purpose.

Haven't learned a thing from you. Zip, zilch, nada. In fact, I think in discussing these topics, you've caused me waste a lot of keyboard energy better spent elsewhere.

Ok, I'm done feeding this troll.

 

[Mike805]

Quote from intradaybill:

When the random component is removed, C1 > C2 for long and C1 < C2 for short has a win rate of about 54% and a profit factor of about 2. This shows that there is certain high degree of autocorrelation in the data.

Very wrong bill. I was expecting more.


//SetOption( "PriceBoundChecking", 1 );
SetTradeDelays(0,0,0,0);
SetOption("InitialEquity",100000);
SetOption("MaxOpenPositions",1);
SetOption("CommissionMode",3);
SetOption("FuturesMode",True);
//Per share slippage and fees
SetOption("CommissionAmount",0);
SetPositionSize(1,spsShares);
MarginDeposit =5000;
//PositionSize = -10;
RoundLotSize = 1;

H1 = TimeFrameGetPrice("H",inDaily,-1);
L1 = TimeFrameGetPrice("L",inDaily,-1);
C1 = TimeFrameGetPrice("C",inDaily,-1);
O1 = TimeFrameGetPrice("O",inDaily,-1);
C2 = TimeFrameGetPrice("C",inDaily,-2);
O2 = TimeFrameGetPrice("O",inDaily,-2);


time = TimeNum()==125400 ;

Buy = Cover = time AND C1 > C2 ;

Sell = Short = time AND C1 < C2 ;

 

[Craig66]

So, if you take out the random bit it gets worse?? (sorry if I'm missing something here).

 

[intradaybill]

Quote from Mike805:

Very wrong bill. I was expecting more.

[crappy code snipped]

Hey stupid, I admit I used C0 > C1 for long and C1 > C0 for short and I just used daily data because I do not have intraday data for that long period. True, if C1 and C2 are used, performance is negative, as expected.

Why don't you try those instead clown? You asked for rules. Try these. Use the intraday bar close at the time you evaluate your conditions.

 

[intradaybill]

Quote from Mike805:

Is this intradaybill character a:

(1) Good ol' fashioned troll?
(2) Douchebag, pure and simple?
(3) Just an a**hole.

There are other possibilities that cannot fit in your tiny mind. Like there are other possibilities for your childish examples that mix deterministic and random systems that you cannot and will never think of due to incapacity and lack of knowledge.

Mike, do not expect anyone here to reveal anything to you that can save you from your trading misery. Once you made some money but you lost it all and much more, you know what I mean...

 

[Mike805]

Quote from Craig66:

So, if you take out the random bit it gets worse?? (sorry if I'm missing something here).

Yep.

 

[shortie]

what changes with the removal of the random condition is the holding time. this alone could explain the deterioration of P&L

 

[Craig66]

Quote from shortie:

what changes with the removal of the random condition is the holding time. this alone could explain the deterioration of P&L

The average holding time in the original report is about the same as the report with the random condition removed so I'm not sure it's that...so in summary:

1. Random condition + entry time = good
2. Random condition + entry time + prev day condition = bad
3. Random condition + entry time + flipped prev day condition = better than 1
4. Entry time + flipped prev day condition = bad

I'm stumped for now...