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Trading Lessons/Insights From Coin Flipping
- Thread starter tradingjournals
- Start date
Quote from masterjaz_99:
So, please help us, by showing how you determine a random equity curve from a non-random equity curve. That would prove far more productive than attacking Mike...
I never attacked Mike. He attacked me first as he always does by calling me names. I never attack anyone first. I only defend myself. He is a seriously disturbed individual. He will attack you also if you stop giving him head...
Now, the answer to your stupid question above is trivial.
Random equity curve is one that is generated by a random process
Non-random equity curve is one generated by a deterministic process like a rule-based system
You can distinguish those two by the generation processs but not from secondary processes like an equity curve. Equity curves are not invertible functions. keep that in mind. It is like you are told that someone covered 100 miles in 1 hour and you would like to know the type of the car. Stupid, isn't it? You and Mike are making stupid nonsensical arguments and you are asking stupid questions even some high school students know the answers.
Quote from Habusa:
No one should think trading is simple
Trading is like being a doctor hard complicated work and randomness plays a part
Trading is simple, but not easy is a better way to describe it. But KISS still works, an example would be the following:
1. Move to UK
2. Open a spread betting account with a reputable firm
3. Transfer £30k into account (or more)
4. Bet on upside moves in Live Cattle futures whenever weekly CCI goes below -100 or -200
5. Bet £30k/current price per $1 move
6. Stop is at $0
7. Target is either +$10 move or when CCI weekly goes above 100 or 200
Simples!
Let's take a look at 25 runs with the entry conditions as posted earlier. Each value is a resulting PnL. The AVG is the average of 25 runs:
No Condition
42325
-8275
25975
111700
-287
11650
32150
-29400
10025
7100
-27450
-17237
9112
2975
23400
-34912
38725
-4775
34587
-5812
-32262
16950
-30212
105037
-2225
AVG 11154.56
Ok, so does anyone have any conditions that might affect this coin flip entry?
I'll start off with a couple:
C1 = Yesterday's daily close.
C2 = Day before yesterday's daily close.
Buy = Cover = TimeNum()==125400 AND rand < 0.50 AND C1 > C2;
Sell = Short = TimeNum()==125400 AND rand >= 0.51 AND C1 < C2;
25 Runs:
C1 > C2 & C1 < C2
-71612
-95225
-95287
-37150
-30325
-37262
-49375
-27037
-95887
-95150
-31775
-6000
-56312
-53662
-26862
-17175
-20037
-95950
-43575
-37862
-22762
-75400
-54537
-68550
-18150
AVG: -50516.76
Seems that this particular conndition virtually guarantees that we lose money when combined with a coin flip entry.
What about if we reverse this condition?
Buy = Cover = TimeNum()==125400 AND rand < 0.50 AND C1 < C2;
Sell = Short = TimeNum()==125400 AND rand >= 0.51 AND C1 > C2;
25 Runs:
C1 < C2 & C2 > C1
97087
110500
39300
22025
27175
90937
47662
29675
50837
48050
16125
91800
78362
15575
45450
67662
7687
-20150
51925
23512
43725
79475
36325
33075
1900
AVG: 45427.84
Here's something funny... all but one of the runs was profitable and the avg. PnL was 45k. Something is going on here... Will the results change if I did 1000 runs? Likely not...
Can we infer that time of day and 2 days of closing prices have some value in this particular example?
Mike
No Condition
42325
-8275
25975
111700
-287
11650
32150
-29400
10025
7100
-27450
-17237
9112
2975
23400
-34912
38725
-4775
34587
-5812
-32262
16950
-30212
105037
-2225
AVG 11154.56
Ok, so does anyone have any conditions that might affect this coin flip entry?
I'll start off with a couple:
C1 = Yesterday's daily close.
C2 = Day before yesterday's daily close.
Buy = Cover = TimeNum()==125400 AND rand < 0.50 AND C1 > C2;
Sell = Short = TimeNum()==125400 AND rand >= 0.51 AND C1 < C2;
25 Runs:
C1 > C2 & C1 < C2
-71612
-95225
-95287
-37150
-30325
-37262
-49375
-27037
-95887
-95150
-31775
-6000
-56312
-53662
-26862
-17175
-20037
-95950
-43575
-37862
-22762
-75400
-54537
-68550
-18150
AVG: -50516.76
Seems that this particular conndition virtually guarantees that we lose money when combined with a coin flip entry.
What about if we reverse this condition?
Buy = Cover = TimeNum()==125400 AND rand < 0.50 AND C1 < C2;
Sell = Short = TimeNum()==125400 AND rand >= 0.51 AND C1 > C2;
25 Runs:
C1 < C2 & C2 > C1
97087
110500
39300
22025
27175
90937
47662
29675
50837
48050
16125
91800
78362
15575
45450
67662
7687
-20150
51925
23512
43725
79475
36325
33075
1900
AVG: 45427.84
Here's something funny... all but one of the runs was profitable and the avg. PnL was 45k. Something is going on here... Will the results change if I did 1000 runs? Likely not...
Can we infer that time of day and 2 days of closing prices have some value in this particular example?
Mike
Mike, you don't even seem to understand what your own program does. I see no parameters for spreads, liquidity issues, or commissions, yet these factors are extremely important to real trading with volume.
But here's the most damning evidance that you don't have a clue what you are talking about. If you think you've proven a profitable trading strategy then trade it. Why are you busy doing really poor verbal jousting slamming anyone who dares challenge it ? What on earth does anything have to do with coin flipping ? Trade it, make your money, and prove that you did so.
But here's the most damning evidance that you don't have a clue what you are talking about. If you think you've proven a profitable trading strategy then trade it. Why are you busy doing really poor verbal jousting slamming anyone who dares challenge it ? What on earth does anything have to do with coin flipping ? Trade it, make your money, and prove that you did so.
Quote from Mike805:
Here's something funny... all but one of the runs was profitable and the avg. PnL was 45k. Something is going on here... Will the results change if I did 1000 runs? Likely not...
Can we infer that time of day and 2 days of closing prices have some value in this particular example?
Mike
"Will the results change if I did 1000 runs? Likely not... "
I am not going to take your word for it because you got none Mike.
Just run the system without the random conditions. What do you get?
For C1> C2 and C2 < C1 you should get a win rate about 54% and PF about 2.0. Cool Mike... You just proved you are an idiot...
Quote from Nine_Ender:
Mike, you don't even seem to understand what your own program does. I see no parameters for spreads, liquidity issues, or commissions, yet these factors are extremely important to real trading with volume.
But here's the most damning evidance that you don't have a clue what you are talking about. If you think you've proven a profitable trading strategy then trade it. Why are you busy doing really poor verbal jousting slamming anyone who dares challenge it ? What on earth does anything have to do with coin flipping ? Trade it, make your money, and prove that you did so.
I'm not intending to prove anything here. Of course I understand what my program does. It's a simple stupid program.... two lines of code . Do you understand what it does?
You're apparently not aware of ES liquidity (non issue) and I've already mentioned this isn't meant to overcome spread and commissions.
Why are you still choosing to post in this thread? Seriously? You've already shown you don't quite grasp expectation, and, the idea of random variables is beyond your knowledge level. Until you have something better to contribute than the following:
(1) Liquidity, spreads and commissions (duh)
(2) Proven trading strategy (who cares... )
Then shut it! Seriously, think of something more tangible than the obvious.
Oh yeah, obviously, there may or may not be any "realism" in these experiments, but they turn out results that are open to discussion .
Quote from intradaybill:
"Will the results change if I did 1000 runs? Likely not... "
I am not going to take your word for it because you got none Mike.
Just run the system without the random conditions. What do you get?
For C1> C2 and C2 < C1 you should get a win rate about 54% and PF about 2.0. Cool Mike... You just proved you are an idiot...
Yep intradaydouche, that sounds about right. Do you wonder why I choose those particular conditions?
Seem awfully simple don't they...
Hmm... any insight other than calling me an idiot?
Mike
P.S. Bill, how many people have you called an idiot, loser, stupid etc on this site? Please count it up, you might be shocked to see the number.
Quote from Mike805:
Yep intradaydouche, that sounds about right. Do you wonder why I choose those particular conditions?
Seem awfully simple don't they...
Hmm... any insight other than calling me an idiot?
You keep on insulting me Mike, what do you expect? Do you want me to call you Sir? You do not deserve honors Mike.
Back to the issue. The simple rule C1 > C2 is a profitable system and your introduction of a random entry condition turns it unprofitable on the average. Why are you so intrigued Mike? This is expected by a 10 year old. If you add more runs maybe you will get different averages. 1000 is way smaller than infinity.
Mike I do not like people who do not have a point in advance but try to discover what the issue is by insulting others in the meantime. You are not sure of your own conclusions and your results even disprove you. You have not made a clear statement of what you are trying to demonstrate. This is because you are not sure what you are trying to demonstrate.
P.S. Stupid is common here. An example is you. You are vulgar Mike. This is different.