Trading Lessons/Insights From Coin Flipping

[masterjaz_99]

Quote from blox87:

Mike and others here who are being civil, Thank you for your time and insight about this subject.

Question about your results that you just posted ?

What role if any does time have an affect in this experiment? I noticed the largest winners and losers were held for 159 bars each.

Blox,
Welcome, and I must say, of the get-go, I like the way you are thinking. You are not bogged down with the fact that this is a thought experiment and these are random trades, but you are trying to see 'through' the data and analyzing the underlying structure (which, given it's a random generation, may not exist, in this case...something to ponder...).
As for the 159 bars, my guess is it is either a coincidence or a function (or limitation) of Mike's software random number generator. The largest loss (short, I believe) is also 159 bars. I am assuming, and Mike can correct me, that in this test a bar is 1 day. Actually, my guess is that 159 bars represents 1 trading day or something close as the average # of bars is also close to 159 and the system trades daily, roughly, unless the position does now swap from long to short.

Feel free to add thoughts and comments, and thanks for pointing out all that is positive in this thread

masterjaz

 

[JSSPMK]

So what insights can be derived from coin flipping?

 

[intradaybill]

Quote from JScott:

Mike, I guess you had to say it again nonetheless . . .

Good traders need good discipline . . .

If you don't have the discipline to refrain from making a childish post on a thread where people have no agenda and simply are sharing information, then your discipline is lacking. Trading will be difficult for you.

JS

This guy is psychotic. You are wasting your time. He is calling me buddy of a guy I do not even know. He is calling me names and other people too when they do not agree with him. He should be treated, seriously. He is too aggressive and abusive with other people. He cannot stand for a minute a different view. He has comprehension problems and possibly some other serious type of disorder. It's a pity. What a waste. He has never said something that made sense and he has never helped any newbie here to understand anything. He is here just to attack people.

 

[intradaybill]

Quote from Mike805:

Yikes ... you sound like your douching buddy, intradaybill (aka twice-a-day-douche).

[snipped nonsense]


Hmmm...

(1) gooddouche (too simple)
(2) gotgangbanged (too crude)
(3) goldenShower (potential ...)
(4) go-go-gadget-dick (too weird)
(5) gooberdouche (potential..)
(6) goochgobbler (too crude)


That's enough for now... more to come.

Suggestions always welcome, in fact they're encouraged!

You should be ashamed of yourself. You are using Elite Trader to unload your frustrations. I receive many thanks from people because of the help I provide to them in this forum. I try to be helpful. You have problems Mike. You need to see a doctor. Seriously, before it is too late for you. For your own good. This, your reaction, is typical pattern of people who slowly grow too aggressive in life with serious side effects for others, even danger to their lives. Shame on you Mike.

 

[shortie]

Quote from Mike805:

Okay, so the first step towards enlightment and progress is admitting that one is clueless. Your post above essentially admits your level of knowledge, so maybe now we can make some progress here. Just take a few deep breaths and accept the fact that you're in a bit over your head.

Here is some code that uses a pseudo random generator to generate entries and exits at a specific time (5 minutes prior to market close). The system either goes long or short at 12:55pm (PST), it can hold if its long and no short is generated...

Ran on ES futures, 1 contract per trade.

AFL Code:

SetTradeDelays(0,0,0,0);
SetOption("InitialEquity",100000);
SetOption("MaxOpenPositions",1);
SetOption("CommissionMode",3);
SetOption("CommissionAmount",0);
SetPositionSize(1,spsShares);
rand = Random();

Buy = Cover = TimeNum()==125400 AND rand < 0.50;

Sell = Short = TimeNum()==125400 AND rand >= 0.51;


These are the results:

...

why is the exposure only 3.47%? the way i understood it: the script is always in the market switching long/short/long/short etc. depending on a random# at each step.

is this a representative equity curve?

could you comment on your choice of the trading instrument and the entry/exit time?

do i understand the script correctly for the given string of random#s:
50
51
50
50
50


you will get:
enter long
sell long, enter short
cover short, enter long
stay long
stay long

 

[tim888]

Quote from masterjaz_99:

there is a bifurcated Elite Trader readership, those that appreciate a good thought experiment and the sharing of knowledge, and those that are stuck in their box, thinking their way is the only way, and would rather attack posters rather than the ideas said posters present.

I am new here. I appreciate the use of thought experiments in physics and elsewhere in science but given that I am a pragmatist I never assigned high value to them.

I can understand the negative reaction of some members here who maybe strongly believe that trading is about results, not thought experiments. What are you trying to accomplish? Can you explain that in a couple of sentences so that a phycisist like me can undertstand it?

 

[Bakinec]

Mike, what if you run the test again, will it be also profitable? Sorry, I really have no clue about how these random generators work or what true randomness is, but I assume it's like a coin flip. I guess what I'm saying is, maybe this one time, this "random" process of entering trades, randomly got "lucky", so to speak? If you run this test a hundred times, and it would prove profitable, that would be more convincing. Bah, to be honest, I don't even know what I'm talking about here, so ignore if you wish.

 

[tim888]

Quote from Mike805:

So, what's happening here? Why do we see a 50% win rate with an apparent "edge"?

Win rate is actually 49.11%. What is your explanation for these results?

 

[shortie]

Quote from Gubinec:

Mike, what if you run the test again, will it be also profitable? Sorry, I really have no clue about how these random generators work or what true randomness is, but I assume it's like a coin flip. I guess what I'm saying is, maybe this one time, this "random" process of entering trades, randomly got "lucky", so to speak? If you run this test a hundred times, and it would prove profitable, that would be more convincing. Bah, to be honest, I don't even know what I'm talking about here, so ignore if you wish.

random # generator with 50/50 chance of the outcomes = coin flip

one caveat to Mike's code is that he uses a pseudo random # generator and that may have some caveats. but my limited understanding is that for most practical purposes it can be considered truly random. certainly in this case it should not be an issue.

 

[tim888]

Quote from shortie:

random # generator with 50/50 chance of the outcomes = coin flip

one caveat to Mike's code is that he uses a pseudo random # generator and that may have some caveats. but my limited understanding is that for most practical purposes it can be considered truly random. certainly in this case it should not be an issue.

I don't think this is the important issue here. I think that Mike805 is trying to demostrate that the performance of some money managers and traders can be attributed to pure luck and not to some edge. Maybe it would be better for him to explain what motivated his test and I apologize if he has already done that.