Quote from tradingjournals:
My question was aimed at explaining it in the context of coin flipping so that the questions of applicability of laws/etc is not an issue. So the questions related to arc sine law in the context of coin flipping remains.
The issue of laws is important because the arc sine law is a counter-intuitive result. It says basically that the expected first return time to zero is infinite!
Let us try to understand the contradiction here. As n , the number of tosses, becomes very large, the number of head events and the number of tail events should both approach n/2 for a fair coin. Winnings should be equal to losses in the case of two players.
The arc sine law considers the fraction of
time during which gains remain positive. The result is that it must be either close to 0 or close to 1 but not equal to 1/2, the intuitive result, as the clowns claim it to be.
I claim the result is wrong.. I further claim that the correct answer is that we do not know the fraction of the interval gains will be positive because ...
...answer deleted
I deleted my answer above because I do not plan to give food for thought and for publishing another paper to some clowns when if I write the same paper they will not publish it because they control the peer review process.
One thing I can tell you. Science, in particular mathematics and physics, is full of clowns who have an ego problem, cannot make a buck running business, cannot even run a deli store but they think they can discover the secrets of the world. 99.99% of physicists and mathematicians have some type of autism disorder
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asperger_syndrome
If you want to make money, forget those clowns and use your intuition. Their "intuition defying results" is a by product of their inability to understand the self-evident principles that govern math and physics, and as a consequences, physical reality.
