Trading Journal - May
- Thread starter Seanote
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IMO -
Naz has broken April 2001 low on a 2-year chart. Dows next major support is in the 9,500 area. The average trader instinctively is predicting a turnaround because it's bound to happen. I'm not and nor do I agree with the school of thought that we are going see single digits on the QQQs, this is the worst market ever.... so on and so on. The fact is earnings (even though they have been revised 5 times before reporting) are stabling out somewhat, stocks are trading closer to book value and once these accounting irregularities and investigations subside all of the fluff will be filtered out while establishing a stronger base moving forward. Obviously I've been short and will continuing to maintain that overall position for now, but be cautious for a reversal that could happen soon. The street is looking and begging for any positive signs of turn around and all of the shorts, like myself, will be covering soon enough which will fuel added demand. I don't think the bounce up will be long lived, but it will be significant enough to clean out the bears and make them re-evaluate their position. I also believe the bounce up will pull back somewhat and create a new support level quite a bit higher than the support we are currently attempting to establish. Remember, you do not always have to trade the high flying techs and dow components. The last couple of months have been a prime example of adapting your trading technique/strategy to current market conditions. The small and mid caps have been doing very well over the last couple of months nearing and setting highs while 95% of traders continue to stay in the large cap and/or tech sector. I'm a firm belive in technology and it's longevity (mainly the telecom sector) once all of the capitulation takes place, but that's long term.
Naz has broken April 2001 low on a 2-year chart. Dows next major support is in the 9,500 area. The average trader instinctively is predicting a turnaround because it's bound to happen. I'm not and nor do I agree with the school of thought that we are going see single digits on the QQQs, this is the worst market ever.... so on and so on. The fact is earnings (even though they have been revised 5 times before reporting) are stabling out somewhat, stocks are trading closer to book value and once these accounting irregularities and investigations subside all of the fluff will be filtered out while establishing a stronger base moving forward. Obviously I've been short and will continuing to maintain that overall position for now, but be cautious for a reversal that could happen soon. The street is looking and begging for any positive signs of turn around and all of the shorts, like myself, will be covering soon enough which will fuel added demand. I don't think the bounce up will be long lived, but it will be significant enough to clean out the bears and make them re-evaluate their position. I also believe the bounce up will pull back somewhat and create a new support level quite a bit higher than the support we are currently attempting to establish. Remember, you do not always have to trade the high flying techs and dow components. The last couple of months have been a prime example of adapting your trading technique/strategy to current market conditions. The small and mid caps have been doing very well over the last couple of months nearing and setting highs while 95% of traders continue to stay in the large cap and/or tech sector. I'm a firm belive in technology and it's longevity (mainly the telecom sector) once all of the capitulation takes place, but that's long term.
As you aptly alluded to, the bounce will happen and right soon. We have options expiration coming up next week, I believe, and we can be sure of a bounce in this area (if not sooner).
Just finished reading a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Fooled By Randomness) which I HIGHLY recommend to readers of this thread. Amazing what role chance plays in this market. Good luck!
Just finished reading a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Fooled By Randomness) which I HIGHLY recommend to readers of this thread. Amazing what role chance plays in this market. Good luck!
TODAYS EXECUTIONS:
11:40:23 CPWR SHRT 2000 7.00
09:53:14 AMGN BOT 2000 49.01
OPEN POSITIONS:
LONG .SJXQL 5 17.00 +69.50
SHORT CREE 2000 12.34 +1.28
SHORT SUNW 5000 6.61 +0.52
SHORT VZ 2000 40.23 +0.24
SHORT CPWR 2000 7.00 +0.20
LONG PALM 10000 3.63 -1.14
LONG DIS 2000 24.86 -1.97
CLOSED P&L: $4,760 OPEN P&L: $25,170
MTD P&L: $10,730 YTD P&L: $170,062
11:40:23 CPWR SHRT 2000 7.00
09:53:14 AMGN BOT 2000 49.01
OPEN POSITIONS:
LONG .SJXQL 5 17.00 +69.50
SHORT CREE 2000 12.34 +1.28
SHORT SUNW 5000 6.61 +0.52
SHORT VZ 2000 40.23 +0.24
SHORT CPWR 2000 7.00 +0.20
LONG PALM 10000 3.63 -1.14
LONG DIS 2000 24.86 -1.97
CLOSED P&L: $4,760 OPEN P&L: $25,170
MTD P&L: $10,730 YTD P&L: $170,062
In my previous posts. I will post my stop/target for each position that I preview in my opening comments and plays each day. This doesn't mean a take each position. I don't always follow my stops/targets to the exact penny due to profit taking and some plays (not many) I hold as a longer term play vs. swing trade. The stops I have set are based solely on TA which I will deviate from if my trading plan and golas warrant a change.
wow - arent you glad you didn't get that fill on liquidating those sox puts a couple of weeks ago.
What a break! Good Trading!
What a break! Good Trading!
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