Trading Journal - June

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Originally posted by Seanote
Watch MO, still negative after the DOW ran up 110 points. This is usually a big signal that there is no instituional buying interest or the big boys are continuing to short holding the price down. This is more a swing trade signal. IMO

My motto is...if a stock should be going up during a futures rally,but doesn't,go short when the futures turn back down;and if a stock should be going down during a futures selloff,but doesn't,go long when the futures turn back up.
 
Originally posted by NUTSNEAL
Take a look at June open interest in MO
Major bell curve with peak at 55 strike. I have noticed often these large companies have a major tendency toward the peak of the open interest at expiration. Also, the June 60 puts are $2.60 offer.

The most important indication is the OI in the at-the-money calls vs. puts. June is flat but there's huge gap in the July's.
 
Sorry I didn't make my point clear.

What I was getting at is that I have noticed that as we get close to option expiration, there is a tendency for the price of the stock to gravitate toward (and often very very very close to) the strike where the large open interest is. In the case of MO, I was getting at that this could create a GRAVITATIONAL PULL (or tendency) to hold the stock price to the $55 area!

As with any observation it certainly is not perfect. I just always try to have as much evidence in my favor as possible for any trade.

I would be interested in observations (of any kind) others have found helpful in improving their trading accuracy.

Sometimes the evidence I weigh convinces me to take a trade, but often just one additional piece of evidence convinces me to pass on a trade I might otherwise take.

Again I want to thank Seanote for this thread!!
 
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