Trading Journal - July
- Thread starter Seanote
- Start date
When a market trend hits the front page of the newspapers, it's time to be careful. As an investor/swing trader this is the time to cool it if you're thinking about going long anytime soon. This week could easily see a further decline, next week could see the worst crash since 1929 -- or next week could see the beginning of a corrective rally. I don't know and nobody else knows.
If we get a rally or a rallying day or week or month, I'd use it to unload any common stocks (except golds), assuming you still have common stocks. When it comes to major moves, I've always been a "counter." By that I mean I count the weeks and watch to see when the averages go to extremes. Wall Street is a two-way street. Stocks don't go straight up in a bull market and they don't go straight down in a bear market.
The S&P has been down 14 of the last 17 weeks. That's extreme. The S&P has been down 7 out of the last 8 weeks. That too is extreme. Maybe this market is heading for all-time records on the downside, and that wouldn't surprise me. After all, we're in the process of correcting the greatest stock market bubble in US history. But when the S&P is down 14 out of 17 weeks, bears have to be careful. A rally here could blow your account up.
It seems that the media has finally conceded that this is a bear market. True, they don't understand the scope of this bear market. True, the analysts continue to recognize "values" in certain sectors and so forth, but the sentiment is changing, and we are now moving into the second psychological phase of this bear market. Often the first two phases are separated by a good rally. On the negative side the Dow has not yet violated its September low, this despite the fact that the S&P and the Nasdaq have.
I'd say that the main reason why almost all the Wall Street strategists and analysts have missed this bear market is that they never learned to read the language of the market. Bullish economics are great in a bull market. In a bear market, bullish economics can leave you looking stupid. Stocks are still overvalued as we can see with the S&P selling at 37.3 times earnings while yielding a paltry 1.74%.
This bear market, despite any short-term movements, has a long way to go. It's ultimately going to produce "great values." If you still have capital and have not been successful trading in and out during this correction you might want to swallow your pride and sit on the sidelines to preserve capital. Doing this will allow you to acquire solid companies at great values if you can hold 1, 2 or more years.
If we get a rally or a rallying day or week or month, I'd use it to unload any common stocks (except golds), assuming you still have common stocks. When it comes to major moves, I've always been a "counter." By that I mean I count the weeks and watch to see when the averages go to extremes. Wall Street is a two-way street. Stocks don't go straight up in a bull market and they don't go straight down in a bear market.
The S&P has been down 14 of the last 17 weeks. That's extreme. The S&P has been down 7 out of the last 8 weeks. That too is extreme. Maybe this market is heading for all-time records on the downside, and that wouldn't surprise me. After all, we're in the process of correcting the greatest stock market bubble in US history. But when the S&P is down 14 out of 17 weeks, bears have to be careful. A rally here could blow your account up.
It seems that the media has finally conceded that this is a bear market. True, they don't understand the scope of this bear market. True, the analysts continue to recognize "values" in certain sectors and so forth, but the sentiment is changing, and we are now moving into the second psychological phase of this bear market. Often the first two phases are separated by a good rally. On the negative side the Dow has not yet violated its September low, this despite the fact that the S&P and the Nasdaq have.
I'd say that the main reason why almost all the Wall Street strategists and analysts have missed this bear market is that they never learned to read the language of the market. Bullish economics are great in a bull market. In a bear market, bullish economics can leave you looking stupid. Stocks are still overvalued as we can see with the S&P selling at 37.3 times earnings while yielding a paltry 1.74%.
This bear market, despite any short-term movements, has a long way to go. It's ultimately going to produce "great values." If you still have capital and have not been successful trading in and out during this correction you might want to swallow your pride and sit on the sidelines to preserve capital. Doing this will allow you to acquire solid companies at great values if you can hold 1, 2 or more years.
Originally posted by moffitt
I cannot understand how the DJII & Comp & S&P can all get trashed. Yet the nasdaq 100 is down a fraction?????
Maybe because most of the speculative money was in the Naz and it has already corrected a good bit more than the Dow and S&P 500.
Nice end of day rally,,,KLAC
a real money maker. $$$
Pat
a real money maker. $$$
Pat
I'm still holding MRK and I do post everyday I trade whether they are winners or losers. I am considering to stop posting trades all together to see how much more profitable I can be. I will still post market commentary but possibly no trades or P&L for a while. I'm taking the day off today so I will update everything tonight or tomorrow morning.