The S&P Composite has been down 12 of the last 15 weeks. This is what I call "urgent selling." Urgent selling is often equated with bottoms, even if they are only temporary bottoms. We never got the sort of fear and pessimism that is characteristic of great bottoms.
Nevertheless, anytime a major average declines on 12 out of 15 weeks, that ratio expresses a certain amount of bearishness. Let me put it this way -- 12 weeks out of 15 on the downside is very unusual.
On Friday the McClellan Oscillator turned positive (plus 29) for the first time in six weeks. This is a definite change, and it must be respected. The normal expectation would be for at least a few weeks of McClellan action on the upside and maybe more than a few weeks.
Keep in mind that the monthly charts which show a bearish head-and-shoulders patterns in both the S&P Composite and the D-J Utility Average. These formations are long-term bearish. They tell us that the bear market potential is still very much there. But the trouble doesn't have to start next week. The S&P has not broken support yet -- support comes in at around 950.
All the above considerations singal that a secondary correction or bear market rally could be at hand. The advance could last as long as a month, but it will be vital to judge the quality of such a rally -- IF IT OCCURS.
Nevertheless, anytime a major average declines on 12 out of 15 weeks, that ratio expresses a certain amount of bearishness. Let me put it this way -- 12 weeks out of 15 on the downside is very unusual.
On Friday the McClellan Oscillator turned positive (plus 29) for the first time in six weeks. This is a definite change, and it must be respected. The normal expectation would be for at least a few weeks of McClellan action on the upside and maybe more than a few weeks.
Keep in mind that the monthly charts which show a bearish head-and-shoulders patterns in both the S&P Composite and the D-J Utility Average. These formations are long-term bearish. They tell us that the bear market potential is still very much there. But the trouble doesn't have to start next week. The S&P has not broken support yet -- support comes in at around 950.
All the above considerations singal that a secondary correction or bear market rally could be at hand. The advance could last as long as a month, but it will be vital to judge the quality of such a rally -- IF IT OCCURS.
