Trading Journal - July

Originally posted by Seanote


He has too much money to die. Banks, S&Ls, and Wall Street will never let him die. He'll buy additional years to his life when that time comes.
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Good point. He may already be dead and a body double is replacing him.

Actually, this points up a serious issue. To me, it seems the risks in this market are very asymmetrical and all to the down side. I don't need to list all the possibilities, but any one of them could give us a quick 20-30% drop. I don't see much on the upside except a slow grind. Probably over time we end up higher, but my fear is there is outsized event risk on the downside. In some ways this is always the case, and it always seems easier to build an intellectual case for being bearish. Still, there is real event risk out there, and I am getting increasingly nervous about it.
 
Originally posted by AAAintheBeltway


Good point. He may already be dead and a body double is replacing him.

Actually, this points up a serious issue. To me, it seems the risks in this market are very asymmetrical and all to the down side. I don't need to list all the possibilities, but any one of them could give us a quick 20-30% drop. I don't see much on the upside except a slow grind. Probably over time we end up higher, but my fear is there is outsized event risk on the downside. In some ways this is always the case, and it always seems easier to build an intellectual case for being bearish. Still, there is real event risk out there, and I am getting increasingly nervous about it.
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Excluding outside factors other than the economy itself, it is a mute point that we will decline over the next couple weeks/months. This rally has generated from little and insignificant economic news and most importantly on LOW VOLUME. There is no news or volume to sustain these levels and when Wall Street, analysts and CNBC finally swallow their pride they'll admit we're beginning the second leg of this bear market as I mentioned in a previous post a month or so ago. This 2nd leg will set new lows, then we'll rally some. The 3rd leg and final leg of this bear market may not hit for 6 months or a year, but when it does...... Imagine when you can buy QQQ @ $13 and MSFT @ $30. All the market technicians (most who are in their late 20s and 30s) keep looking at TECHNICAL trends and signals. They don't realize, which a more experinced trader would, is Market Sentiment is the main force, especially in a bear market. Who's pumping money towards long stock for the long term right now? I don't know anyone. Portfolio managers keep hyping this bull rally because they "feel" they have to do something. Deep down they have the same feeling I do about this market but they sure as hell can't tell their clients/share holders that and sit tight on losers. Their last resort is to go on TV and attempt to convince everyone how much this rally will sustain and make sure you don't miss out on these historic buying opportunities. We can decipher thru their BS and stick with our strategy and sentiment because we only report to ourselves. Those guys should be locked up for disseminating their information and lack of cajones! I bet if we looked at their "other" accounts, ie. parents, friends, partnerships..... all you would see is SHORT SHORT SHORT.... and some puts.
 
Sentiment is the big thing now and it's awfully negative. How else can the market feel after trllions have been wiped. Unfortunately with globilization Greenspan's wrecking ball has damaged Europe as well. But don't you think our boy Bush and his buddies are going to try turn this around somewhat close to November?? If sentiment is still negative then he Bush has absolutely no chance to be reelected . I think that's what all the Iraq stuff is all about. Myself I believe we are closer to a depression than ever and all it's going to take is one more big blunder.
 
''Good to see you back''-AAAinthebeltway quote.[So. America]Like [LUV}the unforgettable patterns of kind people,great beefsteak,huge trends of gamebirds.[Argentina,Uruguay]

September should be interesting,historicaly has been the worst,[down]past 50 years for the SPY family.[Watch for my downtrend pattern also.]

Interesting,Seanote you mentioned possibility of MSFT-$30. Might be. At [or if] $30 or 40 [approximately ]I think you might see an elephant size rally at those levels peradverture.:cool: QQQ looks very weak,tired last month,last week,last day. SPY-family looks strong last 20-30 days.[Price, +buy volume]

MSFT,SPY-family are still real close to 50 day moving average. Might see some more strong rally[or plural].Compared to last [2001]August,had huge buy volume in both.
October known for ''bear killing''

_________________________
''Rare book collecting also a passion''-Bruce Kovner-top trader
 
Originally posted by murray t turtle
''Good to see you back''-AAAinthebeltway quote.[So. America]Like [LUV}the unforgettable patterns of kind people,great beefsteak,huge trends of gamebirds.[Argentina,Uruguay]

September should be interesting,historicaly has been the worst,[down]past 50 years for the SPY family.[Watch for my downtrend pattern also.]

Interesting,Seanote you mentioned possibility of MSFT-$30. Might be. At [or if] $30 or 40 [approximately ]I think you might see an elephant size rally at those levels peradverture.:cool: QQQ looks very weak,tired last month,last week,last day. SPY-family looks strong last 20-30 days.[Price, +buy volume]

MSFT,SPY-family are still real close to 50 day moving average. Might see some more strong rally[or plural].Compared to last [2001]August,had huge buy volume in both.
October known for ''bear killing''

_________________________
''Rare book collecting also a passion''-Bruce Kovner-top trader
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LMAO!!

it has been said in the past that murray t turtle makes some, uhhh, PERPLEXING posts..now i see why!! lol! sorry murray t, nothing personal! still love ya! ;)
 
September trading moves;

[1]QQQ looks weakest [down] of them all; except the gold stocks.

[2]NYSE gold stocks[some] look nice,strong-10 years to 5 minute candlecharts. That's my opinion and up trends last Sept ember in gold stocks may or may not mean uptrends this Sept.:cool: Dividends may help.

[3]Might help-somthing Mr.Dark horse asked about earlier. Think I'll quote Mr. Rich ard Dennis this September ''Exspect extremes''[Jack Schwager book]

____________________

Still like that song ''Streets are paved with gold''
 
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