TRADING IS SIMPLE ... (TheRumpledOne)

Quote from oraclewizard77:

Why not use a non trending up stock like MSFT and see if your code works. Its easy in hindsight to recognize a bull market and design a strategy that works for it, but then in a bear market, all these strategies blow up.

MSFT is not a "cow" by definition and that's why it shouldn't be used. Had you read the thread, you would know that.

Most traders make the mistake of using a method on any instrument INSTEAD OF doing the statistical analysis and see which instruments work best with the method.

You would NEVER use penny stocks for BUY ZONE trading.

You would NEVER use "cows" for RUN FOREST RUN type trading.
 
Quote from Wide Tailz:

I was just thinking the same thing. Buy 'n hold would have generated about $8k during the same time period, but with larger dd's

More to come......

:cool:

I am not sure how you are coding this so I can't comment if you are following it as designed. But your results look good. You are proving what I have been posting about for years. Most are too blind and/or too stubborn to SEE.

I would love to see your code.
 
Quote from atticus:

Tango/Hosea... You should have given it a rest for a few days before coining a new nick. You owe me $10MM.
No, that's not me. I don't beleive in his/her nonesense either and his constant TRO baiting all over the net is boring in the extreme. No, my questions to TRO were entirely genuine I was just pointing out a few things, perhaps in an inflamatory way I know, and also mentioning some of the things I guess TRO would fire back, if he bothered at all; not trolling but I highly doubt if TRO will fully address my concerns as in all the years I've seen him also posting here there and everywhere I've yet to see him fully address ANYTHING when asked.
 
Quote from Good1:

TRO, i just found this list of the top ten forex liquidity providers:

1. Deutsche Bank 18.06
2. UBS 11.30
3. Barclays Capital 11.08
4. Citi 7.69
5. RBS 6.50
6. JP Morgan 6.35
7. HSBC 4.55
8. Credit Suisse 4.44
9. Goldman Sachs 4.28
10. Morgan Stanley 2.91

So when you say, "drain the banks", would these kinds of banks be what you mean? From what i can gather, whenever a small retail trader makes money in the supposed forex market, it comes out of the accounts of these kinds of banks. Would you concur?

No, you are not even close to the truth, and TRO will not tell you, so here I go again. Retail rarely interacts with Prime Brokers. When you open and fund an account with a Spot Currency broker you are put on a hub, the lowest tier is were most traders are. At this point you are executing against liquidity provided by other small traders and the brokers "inventory", these are "units that are floated in the liquidity so that you can buy and sell, even if there is no small trader liquidity at that price, also if your broker has an investment arm, you might have their liquidity on your hub. The next tier up generally costs 80-100k US, with a minimum of 40k units executed per trade. For this you might have one Prime Broker added to you Hub.

Just because you see trades going off at 10Mio units a pop, does not mean a small trader will execute against them. So while Drain The Banks is catchy, and I like the way it sounds, butt it is not entirely accurate. Now, TRO will bury my post with three billion of his over-sized charts.

By the way TRO and I are about the same age and I don't need charts that big, so there must be another reason he uses them :D

The Ever "Has Anybody Here Seen My Old Friend Cable, Can You Tell Me Where He's Gone" VIPER
 
Quote from TradeViper:

No, you are not even close to the truth, and TRO will not tell you, so here I go again. Retail rarely interacts with Prime Brokers. When you open and fund an account with a Spot Currency broker you are put on a hub, the lowest tier is were most traders are. At this point you are executing against liquidity provided by other small traders and the brokers "inventory", these are "units that are floated in the liquidity so that you can buy and sell, even if there is no small trader liquidity at that price, also if your broker has an investment arm, you might have their liquidity on your hub. The next tier up generally costs 80-100k US, with a minimum of 40k units executed per trade. For this you might have one Prime Broker added to you Hub.

Just because you see trades going off at 10Mio units a pop, does not mean a small trader will execute against them.

I think i covered this already in a thread called Forex: Where does the liquidity come from...or something like that. I really don't believe that small traders are providing liquidity for each other. On the other hand, it's not as if Morgan Stanley is taking the other side of my trade either. I understand it like i understand casinos. They are not playing against any player. They are playing the odds, the numbers, the statistics. If Morgan Stanley provides enough liquidity to the brokers who facilitate the trades of small traders, they will come out ahead because more will lose than win. If that were not the case, then they would quit that aspect of business, and let the "lower" tier work it out for themselves. Sure, some brokers may be trying to play the same game...take as many trades as possible to win by odds. But it appears to me the main are just facilitating and taking fees/spreads. So the way i see it, a small traders winnings come from Morgan Stanley the same way a gamblers winnings come from the casino. Do they come from other losing gamblers? In a roundabout way yes, i suppose. But nothing direct.

Also, 'lower' or 'bottom' tier means nothing to me. 'Hub' means even less. I only understand more shenanigans, less shenanigans, more latency, less latency, higher transaction fees, lower... fair, not fair. If you're saying you can buy your way into a more fair system, then say that.

I haven't been to ET in weeks and today i find this message. Hmmm...

Good1
 
Quote from TheRumpledOne:


I would love to see your code.

PM'd it to you over a week ago but perhaps your inbox is off limitz.....

:confused:

I agree that cows do not produce great tails. Found this out the hard way myself.
 
A must read!! THINKING FAST AND SLOW by Daniel Kahneman


<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/jKl21h3D9Zw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
Quote from Wide Tailz:

PM'd it to you over a week ago but perhaps your inbox is off limitz.....

:confused:

I agree that cows do not produce great tails. Found this out the hard way myself.

I just checked my PM box ... Thanks.
 
Quote from JPassion:

No, that's not me. I don't beleive in his/her nonesense either and his constant TRO baiting all over the net is boring in the extreme. No, my questions to TRO were entirely genuine I was just pointing out a few things, perhaps in an inflamatory way I know, and also mentioning some of the things I guess TRO would fire back, if he bothered at all; not trolling but I highly doubt if TRO will fully address my concerns as in all the years I've seen him also posting here there and everywhere I've yet to see him fully address ANYTHING when asked.

I always answer questions that are civilized in nature.

If you do not like my answers, perhaps you need to ask better questions. Many times the question has been answered. Other times, the person asking the question must discover the answer for themselves.

People have a tendency to complicate simple things.
 
Quote from JPassion:

TRO

You generally state there is no trend yet in your video you speak of trend?

How you explain these price turns in the video has me confused:

If all you are doing is waiting for the current bar to be a different colour from the previous bar and hitting a line, how is this any different to your 'horizontal line' strategy? Or the 'famous' 'buzzard reversal'. There's no difference whatsoever as far as I can see and even on the chart you post I see whipsaw after whipsaw as price hits the line, then falls again thus changing color. You mention price testing the low first the going up and hitting the line. Yeah, well we can't see what really happened inside that H1 candle you love to post can we?? How many times did it really bounce around within the hour and take out your famous 10 pip (including spread) stop?

Now if what you mean is the 'price turn' candle closes a different color to the previous candle and you then enter on the following candle..that's just another variation of your 'rat' entry and I still fail to see why an indicator is required to see that an arbitrary price bar closed a different color to the previous arbitrary price bar.

You also say in the video the reason for entering the market has no bearing on outcome. I agree to some extent. In which case your entry method and indicator are, ergo, useless.

So you have a 10 pip stop, a useless entry method and no defined exit (which is what you state makes you money).

Here comes the 'exit playbook'


:(


True, I don't believe in "trend" because trend is what the trader says it is... it is conceptual in nature. However, after the fact, traders look back and point to where the trend started (turned). In each and every case a PRICE TURN occurred. Therefore, those who use "trend" in their trading should be aware of PRICE TURN and when the last price turn occurred.

You ask how it is different. Did I say it was different? Do you see a difference? The difference is that price turn tells the trader what is happening with price based on when the last turn occurred - 1) turning up, 2) trending up, 3) turning down or 4) trending down.

This has nothing to do with the horizontal line though you can use price turn with a horizontal line to decide whether or not to enter a trade, trade direction and where to enter.

Buzzard reversal includes a price turn but not every price turn is a Buzzard reversal.

Yes, a Rat Reversal includes a price turn.

"You also say in the video the reason for entering the market has no bearing on outcome" Yes, that is true. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN after you enter a trade therefore your reason for entry does not guarantee you a profit.

"So you have a 10 pip stop, a useless entry method and no defined exit (which is what you state makes you money). " Any tool is "useless" if you don't know how and when to use it.

I see you are familiar with the EXIT PLAY BOOK.

Your "questions" have been answered. Best of luck to you. Thanks for posting.
 
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