Quote from bmwhendrix:
The rat experiment is flawed. The outcome was not random, it was preset to be 60%. However, the students did not know of the rig and the rats just learned where food was most of the time. It was a static markets.
Now put the rats in a dynamic market where the long term outcome will be 50/50 but with some short term trending and ranging, and there may well be an algorithm to take advantage of such action that will beat 50%.
I hate to me Mr. Judgmental Condescending Ego Expert... here are my thoughts:
1.) The analogy between rats and Yale students is a great story. Analogies are laughable means to prove something to be true. Try publishing it in a scientific paper - you'll be recommended to get a refund from your alma mater.
2.) bmwh is correct - the rats were preset at 60%. That is not true of the market. Although TRO may be pointing out the difference between analysis and trading noise - either way,
this is absolutely not an explanation for the system!
3.) The crowd of "there is no intraday trend" is not correct, as much as they'd like to be. It's like saying Lehman shouldn't of been bailed out. News trading on technical off of daily charts is excellent and a different ball game, but the fact that plenty are making lots of money off of intraday empties almost every bit of creditably one has in claiming they're not a "noise trader."
4.) Drain the banks, IMO, is about money management, and proves that one can make plenty of money by combining basic sentiment (desk chatter) with maybe basic analysis (ex Stochastics) with GUESSING, just by keeping losses tight and letting winners run more than your losses. It's not difficult - if you have not experienced this yourself, spend a few minutes and trade something using this method, and watch how your PnL is positive.
5.) One of TRO's videos says he has experienced "1,000 indicators" in his "10 years of trading". If this were a Goldman interview (or any big interview for that matter), you'd almost certainly kibosh your goal of a job offer. This shows a terrible understanding of data, not so much from a math point of view but a judgement and ego/mantra point of view. People who have bad judgement and believe they're experts haven't realized that they're wrong almost all of the time ("when one realizes that they are always, always wrong, they then become correct - and can move forward"). 1,000 indicators in 10 years would be about 100 indicators a year, or 1 indicator every 3-4 days on average. I doubt TRO kept up that record. Maybe it was a memory fluke on camera... I don't know for certain!
5.1) Making fun of "squligely line guys" also reflects the same points I made above. I think TRO should express this as how nice horizontal lines are and the benefits of them.
Thank you, TRO, for the youtube channel and DTB system - very good reading, and nice to get a refresh on what some ego freak shows on this board seem to of never learned!
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