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Trading is NOT a business
- Thread starter TFtrader
- Start date
Hi TFT ,
What you say has been said by many people before with statistical skills .
However let me ask you about the methods you used for testing and selection of criteria for entry/exit and adaptation of these criteria to whether the market is up , down or ranging.
If you let Tech Analysis software do it for you , automatically you get a mess and without breaking up into sections for differing states of the market you allow the Random Walk Theory to share the results.
I would be interested to hear more.
PC
What you say has been said by many people before with statistical skills .
However let me ask you about the methods you used for testing and selection of criteria for entry/exit and adaptation of these criteria to whether the market is up , down or ranging.
If you let Tech Analysis software do it for you , automatically you get a mess and without breaking up into sections for differing states of the market you allow the Random Walk Theory to share the results.
I would be interested to hear more.
PC
Quote from Optionpro007:
Very clever. Jack's prodigy here.
I am looking at a blueprint I drew up of Jacks Trading System - its not bad.
But it won't work, the problem - his signal generator (you know, that critical body of Logic that allows Jack to trade seamless from one pivot point to the next)...well...
...Its uses a Trilithium Powered Warp Drive Engine!
I don't know about you Optionpro007, but I don't know how to build a Trilithium Powered Warp Drive Engine.
If you replace it with a Common Sense Engine, the signals won't be as good, but it just might work - so I will give it a try.
Thought You would want to know.
The End (...Thank God)
Back to the subject at hand...
TFTrader,
There are a lot of successful traders and investors out there - it is a buisness.
I don't beleive you even know what a trading system is. Try reading "Inside The Black Box" by rishi k narang.
If you succeed in designing one afterwards, then read "The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies" by Robert Pardo - and dump whatever back tester you are using if it does not adhere to the principles outlined in his book. Back testing can produce false positives - you need to understand the art.
Finally, realize the prefect combination of optimized indicators does not make for a trading system, your trying to create a Magic Bullet (same thing old Jack Hershey tried to do a failed)
Also over-optimization can produce a brittle system prone to sever failure when the markets change slightly.
Difference between you and Jack however, you realized you were unsuccessful (after 6000 hours) and hung up the spurs - poor old Jack is still trying.
Now go on TF, go do your home work and try again.
TFTrader,
There are a lot of successful traders and investors out there - it is a buisness.
I don't beleive you even know what a trading system is. Try reading "Inside The Black Box" by rishi k narang.
If you succeed in designing one afterwards, then read "The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies" by Robert Pardo - and dump whatever back tester you are using if it does not adhere to the principles outlined in his book. Back testing can produce false positives - you need to understand the art.
Finally, realize the prefect combination of optimized indicators does not make for a trading system, your trying to create a Magic Bullet (same thing old Jack Hershey tried to do a failed)
Also over-optimization can produce a brittle system prone to sever failure when the markets change slightly.
Difference between you and Jack however, you realized you were unsuccessful (after 6000 hours) and hung up the spurs - poor old Jack is still trying.
Now go on TF, go do your home work and try again.
Quote from deadbroke:
An American investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Greek village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. Inside the small boat were several large yellow fin tuna.
The American complimented the Greek on the quality of his fish and asked, "How long does it take to catch them?" The Greek replied: "Only a little while."
The American then asked why didn't he stay out longer and catch more fish? The Greek said he had enough to support his family's immediate needs. The American then asked, "But what do you do with the rest of your time?"
The Greek fisherman said, "I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play cards with my friends, I have a full and busy life."
The American scoffed, "I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should spend more time fishing and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat with the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats, eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats.
Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution.
You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Athens, then London and eventually New York where you will run your expanding enterprise."
The Greek fisherman asked, "But, how long will this all take?" To which the American replied, "15-25 years."
"But what then?" The American laughed and said that's the best part. "When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions."
"Millions ... Then what?" The American said, "Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play cards with your friends."
Thank you! LMHO
Chasing the Same Signals
http://au.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470824883.html
http://au.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470824883.html
Quote from deadbroke:
An American investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Greek village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. Inside the small boat were several large yellow fin tuna.
The American complimented the Greek on the quality of his fish and asked, "How long does it take to catch them?" The Greek replied: "Only a little while."
The American then asked why didn't he stay out longer and catch more fish? The Greek said he had enough to support his family's immediate needs. The American then asked, "But what do you do with the rest of your time?"
The Greek fisherman said, "I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play cards with my friends, I have a full and busy life."
The American scoffed, "I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should spend more time fishing and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat with the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats, eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats.
Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution.
You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Athens, then London and eventually New York where you will run your expanding enterprise."
The Greek fisherman asked, "But, how long will this all take?" To which the American replied, "15-25 years."
"But what then?" The American laughed and said that's the best part. "When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions."
"Millions ... Then what?" The American said, "Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play cards with your friends."