Trading is gambling- Only if you make it gambling

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All your previous posts make it clear you're a very bright guy and I bet you'll see soon that you can quantify your trading ideas by constructing specific rules for entries and exits and then testing them.

Focusing on the concept of market inertia has been most helpful to me, i.e., under certain chart entry conditions price bars are more likely to continue moving upward or downward for a few or several more price bars (body in motion staying in motion until acted on by another force...), while under most other chart entry conditions such continued movement is less likely.

I believe you have mentioned that you prefer to trade without indicators (maybe a moving average? not sure). All my systems use indicators to quantify momentum, trend direction and volatility, and I've never developed rules-based trading systems whose entries and exits are based on pure price action, but I know it is possible.

I'm confident that one can identify chart conditions where market movement is more likely to continue (inertia) using price action techniques and then design specific entry and exit rules to test around these concepts. After that, one can scroll back on the charts and start moving them forward one price bar at a time and test whether the rules have merit. Then one can adjust the rules in a logical way to try to improve the results and test again.

The best examples of this method in practice that I have seen are the journals created by Volpri and NoDoji. NoDoji's journal includes input from other price action traders too and is in the Hall of Fame threads if you might be interested.

Great post!

My understanding of inertia was a description of something that was not moving/changing but I see now that it is a term used to describe the fact that something already moving will continue until acted upon by another force.I guess in trading terms this is the core strength of the trend?

I can immediately see some ways to to measure this in a rule based system.
 
Casinos are also gambling with their capital even though the odds are in their favor.

Trading is 100% gambling as you are placing a bet on an uncertain outcome.

It cannot be refuted.
Good Morning zghorner,

I like your comments.

Question for you please.

1. How can the trading outcome(s) be certain rather than uncertain?

Thank you
 
.

All your previous posts make it clear you're a very bright guy and I bet you'll see soon that you can quantify your trading ideas by constructing specific rules for entries and exits and then testing them.

Focusing on the concept of market inertia has been most helpful to me, i.e., under certain chart entry conditions price bars are more likely to continue moving upward or downward for a few or several more price bars (body in motion staying in motion until acted on by another force...), while under most other chart entry conditions such continued movement is less likely.

I believe you have mentioned that you prefer to trade without indicators (maybe a moving average? not sure). All my systems use indicators to quantify momentum, trend direction and volatility, and I've never developed rules-based trading systems whose entries and exits are based on pure price action, but I know it is possible.

I'm confident that one can identify chart conditions where market movement is more likely to continue (inertia) using price action techniques and then design specific entry and exit rules to test around these concepts. After that, one can scroll back on the charts and start moving them forward one price bar at a time and test whether the rules have merit. Then one can adjust the rules in a logical way to try to improve the results and test again.

The best examples of this method in practice that I have seen are the journals created by Volpri and NoDoji. NoDoji's journal includes input from other price action traders too and is in the Hall of Fame threads if you might be interested.
Thank you for your encouragements.

What happened in the first two weeks in January is the reason why I need to quantify. In Jan I switched over to the thinkorswim platform and did two weeks of paper trades. Nothing worked. I had two weeks with net paper losses. Prior to this year, from July to Sept, I paper traded and from Sept to Dec I live traded. Both were profitable every single week with profits of about 0.4% per day.

I have not done anything different and I don't think it is the platform. It seems the stock behaved different after the new year.

Since I am relying on general patterns and shapes, no indicators, no lines, I can't quantify what went wrong. Need to get back to basic and start over.
 
Arbitrage or front running big orders (SOES bandits).

SOES was better? Hehe. (Remember that nick here?)

(Of course, SML will never have a small order in stocks, because he is going to do 100 contracts in ES futures, by hook or by crook, to get his 1 million bux).
 
SOES was better? Hehe. (Remember that nick here?)

(Of course, SML will never have a small order in stocks, because he is going to do 100 contracts in ES futures, by hook or by crook, to get his 1 million bux).

5 million ON.Then 1 million per year.

In between call of duty challenges.
 
Thank you for your encouragements.

What happened in the first two weeks in January is the reason why I need to quantify. In Jan I switched over to the thinkorswim platform and did two weeks of paper trades. Nothing worked. I had two weeks with net paper losses. Prior to this year, from July to Sept, I paper traded and from Sept to Dec I live traded. Both were profitable every single week with profits of about 0.4% per day.

I have not done anything different and I don't think it is the platform. It seems the stock behaved different after the new year.

Since I am relying on general patterns and shapes, no indicators, no lines, I can't quantify what went wrong. Need to get back to basic and start over.

Do you really believe that the market changed? Don't you think that its just displaying charts differently than you are used to?

If you aren't using indicators and scripting and all of the advanced tools then you aren't utilizing the full power of the platform.

I am discovering and developing something new on it everyday. I can do some great profitable back testing strategies and paper trading.

But I still have some psychological barriers to work through preventing me from getting the same performance during live trading.

I either hesitate and arrive too late or over anticipate and arrive to early.
 
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