Trading is gambling- Only if you make it gambling

[newwurldmn]

Has elitetrader devolved into just a few threads rehashed?

 

[ElCubano]

It's gambling no matter how you look at it. Those that say "No! I'm a skilled trader so I'm not gambling!" is just fooling themselves. Because a poker player can be a skilled poker player, but at the end of the day, he is just a profitable gambler. And just about everything we do in life is a gamble. Hopping in our car to drive somewhere is gambling, we are gambling with our lives when we drive. Drinking a glass of water can be gambling. What if we accidently shove the glass of water down our throat and it breaks or suffocates us? That can be gambling. Just because we aren't at a casino doesn't mean it's not gambling.

Stop trying to sugarcoat everything and just accept it how it is. We are gambling and some of us are better at it than others. Some of us may even know how to count cards, others may be profitable from cheating (Insider info or manipulation). And at the end of the day, we're all gamblers, which some of us are still in the denial stage to protect their egos.

Exactomundo!!! Anytime money is placed on an uncertain outcome its GAMBLING. That being said there are profitable gamblers.

 

[ElCubano]

when you get into a car and drive aren't you gambling with your life?

When my girlfriend drives the probabilities increase tenfold.

 

[nitrene]

It's 100% gambling and if you trade you are a gambler. There's uncertainty. Poker players are all gamblers too. It's gambling with positive expectation, for a small percentage, perhaps .

I remember reading about a WSOP finalist who was an options trader turned Poker pro. I forget his name, it was back during the GFC in the 2008 tournament.

 

[nitrene]

I mean the r/WSB crowd and its YOLO 0DTE crowd loading up on daily SPY calls is surely gambling.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

But more is required than just an optimized backtest.

Good Morning TrAndy2022,

Very interesting comment.

Can you please explain a bit what you mean?

Thank you

 

[semperfrosty]

When my girlfriend drives the probabilities increase tenfold.

White knuckles!

 

[PennySnatch]

Gambling: The activity of risking money on the outcome of something, such as a game or horse race, hoping to make money.

Sounds like trading to me. But like any activity, with time (years) and practice (thousands of live trades), you can get better at guessing the outcome.

 

[TrAndy2022]

Good Morning TrAndy2022,

Very interesting comment.

Can you please explain a bit what you mean?

Thank you

if you backtest you need to know what is the strategy behind and WHY it should WORK. Then you can do the optimization and run the strategy. If you do not know the reasons or have a good guess then the strategy is not sound, so the chances that you just gamble are much higher.

So you need to know the dependencies and influence variables to know the WHY. I give you a simple example. Interest rates are affecting the valuation of the stock market. Lower interest rates makes the stock market more attractive. So rate cuts next year on lower inflation data, see CPI monthly red news on Forexfactory, are helping the stock market to have a larger bull run. So you know the dependency between interest rates and stock market and also the influence variable which are rate cuts here. All in all it is kind of market understanding you get over time. Now the technical strategy could be here to buy any dip in the stock market. So you optimize and time your entries because of the understood reasons, why the SP500 should increase in 2024 and 2025. That would be a sound strategy and is no gambling as a result. That is what I meant with my previous post.

 

[semperfrosty]

I remember reading about a WSOP finalist who was an options trader turned Poker pro. I forget his name, it was back during the GFC in the 2008 tournament.

Googled it.

Was it Andy Frankenburger?

Following graduation, Frankenberger took his ambition and energy to Wall Street and succeeded as an equity derivatives trader. He made a lot of money. He loved his job. Then, during the absolute pinnacle of his success as a trader, Frankenberger did the unthinkable.

He quit.

Frankenberger decision to leave a highly-successful and lucrative career on Wall Street reveals a lot about the man he is, and what he most values in life. Frankenberger explained his decision this way: He could have hung around for another year or two and continued to make a lot of money. But he felt he was not growing as a person. He sought new challenges.

After taking some time off, Frankenberger began playing tournament poker. He played in several mid-grade tournaments around the country. Much to his surprise and delight, he quickly discovered an affinity for the game. Indeed, the lessons he had learned from his previous life -- of risk management, maintaining emotional control, and complex problem solving – served him well at the poker table.

Last year, Frankenberger started playing full-time on the tournament circuit. He traveled around to major tournaments. He won two major events in 2010, in the process earning an honor as the tour player of the year. But as impressive as Frankenberger’s rapid ascent seemed, he had yet to prove himself on poker’s grandest stage.

That all changed on the night of June 19th, 2011 when at 1:45 am Frankenberger defeated the runner-up Joshua Evans, giving the New Yorker his first WSOP title.

If there’s such a thing as validation for a poker player, the WSOP gold bracelet brings all that to its recipient -- and more. But for Andy Frankenberger, his victory in poker’s most prestigious tournament series reveals that life’s winners can and will succeed in any endeavor they so chose.