My mistake, I was referring to the DOW. Jury is still out on QQQ.
I commend you for your conviction and tenacity, hope you are correct that we won't go there. However, in the grand scheme of things, in the long term, if we are persistent and don't give up, bears and bulls can both profit from their convictions.
If this is a true re-accumulation attempt, "they" will keep price down here while the mass long term index investors start losing their jobs and have no choice but to sell to the pro boys in order to survive.Not fear selling but out of necessity selling is what will force the long term buy and hold crowd to give up chips.
of course both can make money... it's all about probability... and short term success rate is so low it's not even worth trying unless you really enjoy the game, aside from looking for money, because money can be made so much more easily via other ways... long side success rate is much higher, even them dumb mom pops with blind 401k can retire in the end on that.... that's the point. probability of success.... it applies to a single trade, also to ones financial life.
I said in the past day trading, or short term for that matter, can have better success when vola is high.... any basic trend follow can make money. just for me personally I need to have the value proposition lined up, thats why I shorted 2000 but not 2008... 2000 was obious bubble... 2008 it was nuetral for me as I don't follow real estate closely.
regarding re-accumulation.
- that's why the action is so violant. corona comes and goes too quickly. china/korea already shown the peaking pattern lasts not that long. unlike a real bubble of 2000, or a systemic sickness in sub prime, the unwind can take years... corona is a short term shock and the shake operation must be swift to gain maximum benefit. right equity is still 'ridiculously cheap' even in Warren's words if the rates stay down here.... right now we are not 'staying' here, we are even going lower on the rates!
- I also mentioned getting to almost the same vix peak in 2008, that was a 55% down for the qqq, this time we only did about half.... internal strength!
or from a different angle... right now we are about 25% down... exactly the maximum peak to valley in december 2018... but vix peak was only 36 in dec 2018! me boys really did it this time by pumping so much fear into it... 24/7 360 degrees of media bombardment plus all the politicians CYA on a nothing burger.... human stupidity at the highest level.....
goes back to one of my earlier point - do NOT respect the market.... human stupidity all over.... but respect the boyz... you see how they operate.
summer 2015 - big shake on China slow down.... China has always been slowing right, why was aug2015 THAT significant
Jan 2016 low oil scare - low oil good for economy right, plus a few years ago they already scared us once with peak oil? but a shake is a shake, whatever story works.
and wht the fck was feb 2018, vix 50, i don't even remember what the story was.
and of course Oct to Dec 2018 the inflation scare, such bs story when the rest of the world was going negative rates.
and again this time they floated the low oil BS again, but only to kill it couple of days later as corona obviously works much better for pumping fear so forget oil for now.... nobody talking about it even we are already at lower oil than the initial shock couple of weeks ago? why does oil not matter now?
you have to admire the boyz, how they execute these operations.
so there are no holes in my theory right.... I am a physical chemistry PhD.... the approach is scientific, you put out a hypothesis, they you look for evidence to prove or defeat it.... so far too much supporting evidence.
