Trading is easy

[wrbtrader]

here we go again... yield curve inversion, slow down somewhere in the world.... didnt we have this just a few weeks ago? and market pushed new high right?

so is this a 'fool me twice scenario'? also the media is overwhelmingly bearish... this confirms the 'fool me twice'...

therefore I am buying again.

also - at the moment the downward momentum is big... usually I'd not buy like this... but today's drop speed is partly due to the trapped dumb money who bot yesterday... buying on some news is usually dumb money.

I've seen you mention multiple time about "your pro boys" as if you're talking with institutional traders on a regular basis or talking to hedge funds on a regular or talking to professional retail traders that have a network with professional trading firms.

Regardless, the past several weeks...I've been watching 3 different major financial networks on TV and they have had numerous analysts with opposing views. Thus, the media seems confused to me...not overwhelmingly bearish nor overwhelmingly neutral.

In fact, most of the media that I've seen are very neutral with a wait n see policy until the next FOMC meeting.

P.S. The only pro boys/girls I know are a few actual relatives working for major financial institutions or employeesa at the exchange. The only none relative that I know that I would classify as a "pro boy"...he recently retire.

wrbtrader

 

[dozu888]

I've seen you mention multiple time about "your pro boys" as if you're talking with institutional traders on a regular basis or talking to hedge funds on a regular or talking to professional retail traders that have a network with professional trading firms.

Regardless, the past several weeks...I've been watching 3 different major financial networks on TV and they have had numerous analysts with opposing views. Thus, the media seems confused to me...not overwhelmingly bearish nor overwhelmingly neutral.

In fact, most of the media that I've seen are very neutral with a wait n see policy until the next FOMC meeting.

P.S. The only pro boys/girls I know are a few actual relatives working for major financial institutions or employeesa at the exchange. The only none relative that I know that I would classify as a "pro boy"...he recently retire.

wrbtrader

Oh I meant today’s headlines.

Pro boys. I use in a somewhat joking way lol. Of course the professionals don’t move in one direction. I refer to institutions that are big enough to influence the market. Via media and buying selling power.

 

[dozu888]

so in April I posted that due to the dumb money sentiment - forexIG around 30/70 long short, the corrections in 2019 will be similar to mid 2018.. this indicator combined with AAII sentiment has turned out to be quite reliable since 2015 when I started tracking.

repeated success is indicating strongly that my pro boys are looking at something similar.... they probably have more sophisticated tools... but the idea is the same -

fundamentally the yield gap has to close between SPY and LQD.... only makes sense as the corporations will just keep buying back to pick up this free spread.... hence DOW 40000 is fair value.

then along the way it's a matter of how deep the corrections need to be, to strike a balance between cleaning out the short term speculators, vs. not allowing too many sold-out flats to get back in... and that is determined by the dumb money sentiment.

I hope all this makes sense.

 

[ElCubano]

Listen to the pro boys or listen to the poor boys, their choice. Lol

 

[dozu888]

so in the last few days I posted 2 real time buys... and the logic behind those were not that complicated once you practice some..

this market really wants to go up, so you can either BTFD blind, or get a little fancy by doing the way I have shown.... either way should be fine long term.. 12.5% annual on the QQQ is a tremendous tail wind..

 

[dozu888]

so basically to summarize

- buy and hold QQQ/XLK as a baseline... anybody can do this...
- the next level is the earning cycles 4 times a year... this requires some skill but very basic and repetitive... usually it runs 3 weeks prior to the release, look for some 'bad news' to get in why my pro boys knock it down to get good price;
- the next level is the eco/geo/political events... the latest 2 buys are examples of 'old tales' e.g. trade war or yield curve, both have been told before but didn't prevent new highs, so panic drop on repeated tales tend to be good buy points.

 

[Edmond]

Trading is a LOT more like a fight than any other analogy I've found.

And in ANY fight, ANYthing can happen.

The ones you think are going to be easy, are the ones you are likely to find you really have your hands full, the ones you should have sat out somehow.

I agree, it's like a fight and anything can happen. I also look at it as a trick. They're always trying to trick us. Try and think like the tricksters.

 

[destriero]

Hey dozu, where's you blotter?

 

[dozu888]

had a blast yesterday at the US open tennis and then Mets baseball so I didn't comment 'real time' yesterday...

this happens a lot on a Friday when some stuff happens and people don't want to hold over the weekend so you have some 'risk premium' that can be picked up for free... basically just buy at close and sell on Monday anytime should give a good profit.

so this time is the trade war (again?)... how old does this need to get before chicken little get scared enough to sell, or not to buy.

this is again, why even though the path to financial freedom is laid out, it's still very difficult to execute, unless you just blind buy and don't get in touch with the 24/7 media at all.. most people simply can't take scare.

 

[ElectricSavant]

or buy the the last 15 minutes of the NQ

this happens a lot on a Friday when some stuff happens and people don't want to hold over the weekend so you have some 'risk premium' that can be picked up for free... basically just buy at close and sell on Monday anytime should give a good profit.