Trading is easy

dozu888 said:
View attachment 186961

Treat this as poker -

- what hands are they holding? retail and pros;
- what is the story of today?
- what price action has validated/negated the previous story?
- if the previous story was negated, how valid is the next story?
- timing in the earning cycle?
- what is the overall 'great plan'? - the valuation context

With the above in mind, the story unfolds like this:

- the sell-off from the end of Jan, to the first arrow, was driven by the 'inflation' fear. The severity of the sell off was somewhat expected due to the sentiment change among retail... at the end of Jan, https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment the sp500 was close to 50%, while in 2016-2017 it was mostly in a long/short ratio of 10:90.

- on 2/9, the low almost reached the 10/27 gap. This was worth a gamble as it was already the 2nd leg down, and the first test is likely to hold. The fundamental reason is worth mentioning though - price does not hold without a reason. The pros managed to leave in the dust those who sold before 10/27... wouldn't want to give them a 2nd chance to get back on the train.

- The new high made on 3/12 negated the 'inflation' story... so it was a bogus story. This gives less 'credibility to the next story'... which was - the trade war. The timing also made sense, as the April earning season was still far away.... so here we had another sell off in March.

- By early April, time was about to run out as the typical earning run takes 3 weeks. So it's time to pull up again. The earnings were really strong, yet the price action demonstrates the will of the professionals to shake more apples off the tree.

- There was, of course, a 3rd sell off in late April, but the line in the volume window indicates that sellers are running out of gas - or in other words, weak retail hands have been mostly cleaned up.

- This is further confirmed by the 10 days or so in the circle - the dry up. The pros achieved 2 things - to collect a few more chips, and to confirm that it is now safe to pull up further.

So, trading is not that easy, but after some practice the above thought process becomes automatic. I had some good buys that I posted in a different forum, for the last few months of volatility, as well as past sell offs in 2011, 2015, 2016.

The market is not fractal, it breathes in a certain rhythm.... Trading takes the least effort when you breath in the same rhythm.

Good luck.
More...
Trading is definitely easy, but not in the way that you describe within a novella of text.
 
trading is easy, if you can see, what the market is doing

it is a nightmare if you analyse the market using any form of analysis.....

'trade what you see' may be a cliché....but that is the only reality.

and here is million dollar tip, literally: what you see, will continue, until it is exhausted...

if you analyse, that will tell you, it will fall or...it will go up...and exactly the opposite will happen. and you will search for a reason why it happened and then you will find the reason, and then next time the same thing will happen... only for a different reason

soon, you will say to hell, with the fcking analysis just trade what you see and go straight to bank

in my case it was NOT soon, it was after 12 years.....

IMO
 
Last edited:
Harperpro said:
agreed, you need to be consistent with your traders and profits to make living out of trading. one or a weeks profit won't do the trick.
More...
it is easy to play good amateur golf but to play pro golf.....you need to be good.

So the PGA tour advertisement..... 'these guys are good'

IMO
 
Last edited:
ironchef said:
Trading is hard. Trading option is harder. Making a living trading options is :banghead::banghead::banghead::D:D:D.
More...

I know that feeling...Paying it forward, sir...

ON: "...Another slow week. After today's performance, which will be updated next week, I am batting zero for this week as compared to last. Today was a peach due to a sloppy error on my part. Ahh, trading is joyous"

Algofy: "...And when you say joyous you mean stab your eyes out miserable right?"

ON: "...More like a thousand paper cuts sprinkled with lye while getting toenails slowly chewed off by a rabid marmot that's on fire..."

Algofy: "now that sounds more like it :)"

Thanks algofy for the humor. Come back soon.
 
looks like this leg up is about done... timing wise pulling up big now doesn't make much sense.... we are about 4 weeks away from the July earning run, so shaking it around here is more reasonable.... it's not like the trade war is over lol.

but, long term it doesn't matter much... qqq should have a double in it by the time Trump is done... goodness the 10 year is almost 2% and SP is forward yielding 5.9%...

what the f is everybody waiting for..
 
I will never say that trading is easy because it is not an easy thing. You need to have super powers to predict the market 100% correct everytime.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top