Trading is easy
- Thread starter dozu888
- Start date
there is a luck component of course.
I have also posted about financial freedom super cycle - you just need to catch 1 of those and that's it.. examples outside of stocks, being real estate in Vancouver, Bay Area, Shanghai, Hongkong, London.
these super cycles are so long and massive, it's quite difficult to argue how much of catching one is skill vs. luck
there is a luck component of course.
I have also posted about financial freedom super cycle - you just need to catch 1 of those and that's it.. examples outside of stocks, being real estate in Vancouver, Bay Area, Shanghai, Hongkong, London.
these super cycles are so long and massive, it's quite difficult to argue how much of catching one is skill vs. luck
Reminds me of Florida before 2008, people flipping houses right and left, buddy was begging me to get into it down there, and I was already out of the stock market in 2007, got fooled thinking that was the top, but I stayed out even when market went higher and was shorting the Index futures/hedged. I remember buddy called me as he just closed his 5th house and wanted me to fly down to see how easy it was to flip houses, I passed and he said I didn't know how to make easy money, several months later he was filing bankruptcy. Yeah, for a number of years flipping houses was good deal to make money, but unless you know when to reverse or stop, many go down with the ship with hugest number at the highs.....Took me 23 tries at finding the highs when Crude went to 147-ish, so long term trading is a coin flip and the last trade is usually the best trade of long term profitable. But when you have figured out scalping, you have to grind it out, boring nonsense of price being random and still have patterns. I never remember any trade at end of the day, it like herding Mexican jumping beans, they all the same. Boring though is good.
That is precisely my fear: That trading options these days is like flipping houses in Vegas back in 2000-08. Sooner or later the music is going to stop and I will be the one holding the bag.
I have posted before - I personally guarantee that the market won't and can't crash in the foreseeable future.
fundamentally there are no other asset class in the world with the quality as SP500 that is forward yielding 6%..... the good stuff like prime real estate or US treasuries are yielding about half of that.
sentimentally retail dumb money are mostly on the sidelines.
these are far cry from any previous crashes, from both angles above.
All in, guys!
fundamentally there are no other asset class in the world with the quality as SP500 that is forward yielding 6%..... the good stuff like prime real estate or US treasuries are yielding about half of that.
sentimentally retail dumb money are mostly on the sidelines.
these are far cry from any previous crashes, from both angles above.
All in, guys!
I still see what has happened since February being left shoulder and we will go much much higher, economy is doing well, plenty of jobs but still wages not caught up yet.
But those who believe history can't or won't repeat....won't see it coming till too late. For me it is better to center around risk management than profits, get risk as close to zero, profits will come.
Just want to put a couple of thoughts here, seeing the bearish sentiment around the boards lately, which is normal after a drop.
- the Oct-Dec drop, followed by the Jan to Mar run to new high (I mainly look at NDX, but SPY and DIA stories are similar)... the pro boys basically told you the Oct-Dec thing was 'ha, just kidding'... keep that in mind.
- based on the retail's positions, e.g. forexIG or AAII, I made a post a few days ago that going forward the expected corrections should be around 5-10%, similar to mid-2018.. the negative sentiment is understandable, as too many people have missed the big run from 2009... this bull market is very unpopular, which is good.
- but remember the question I asked before... find me another asset class, high quality as the sp500, and yielding 5.x% forward.... you will find nothing close... 10 year is approaching 2%, prime real estate markets rental yields are below 2%... historically P/E is not cheap, but you also gotta thing that right now treasury has a 45 P/E, and prime real estate is 50+.... we are not in Kansas anymore.... cheap/dear is relative, among asset classes... economy may slow down? so what, even if we have 0 growth for the foreseeable future, this kind of yield spread will motivate companies to borrow and buy back till there is nothing left to buy back.
- we are in June, timing wise another month or so of shake makes sense... no trade deal in sight... time to collect chips for the July earning run.
good luck.
- the Oct-Dec drop, followed by the Jan to Mar run to new high (I mainly look at NDX, but SPY and DIA stories are similar)... the pro boys basically told you the Oct-Dec thing was 'ha, just kidding'... keep that in mind.
- based on the retail's positions, e.g. forexIG or AAII, I made a post a few days ago that going forward the expected corrections should be around 5-10%, similar to mid-2018.. the negative sentiment is understandable, as too many people have missed the big run from 2009... this bull market is very unpopular, which is good.
- but remember the question I asked before... find me another asset class, high quality as the sp500, and yielding 5.x% forward.... you will find nothing close... 10 year is approaching 2%, prime real estate markets rental yields are below 2%... historically P/E is not cheap, but you also gotta thing that right now treasury has a 45 P/E, and prime real estate is 50+.... we are not in Kansas anymore.... cheap/dear is relative, among asset classes... economy may slow down? so what, even if we have 0 growth for the foreseeable future, this kind of yield spread will motivate companies to borrow and buy back till there is nothing left to buy back.
- we are in June, timing wise another month or so of shake makes sense... no trade deal in sight... time to collect chips for the July earning run.
good luck.
Sometimes it IS easy. My first day was easy. I started with a $10k account. Made almost $900 first day even with PDT limitation. A month and a half later, I am hovering down around $9900. Well, I did use the IB debit card a time or two, TBH. Anyway I need another one of those easy days and I just won't trade when it isn't looking easy! It sure as hell isn't easy every day, that's for sure. Some days the charts just keep jabbing me and kicking me in the teeth and I swear I think they are laughing at me. Chart looks good, I put some money in play, and the price slides enough to almost make me cry and that little green line starts looking like an unobtainable objective instead of my starting point. Then I get stopped out or it just stupidly stays flat for an hour and I close out, only to watch the price play one last trick on me. There are times when I am GLAD I can only do three trades a week. At least I have not tanked my first account yet. I will say this though... it is more engrossing and entertaining than blackjack at the casino and I am losing a lot more slowly. Yeah, I like it. But making real money isn't easy except on those special days with a perfect setup.
Oh, who am I kidding. I LOVE IT! But I am sure as hell not finding it easy to make money at it yet.
Oh, who am I kidding. I LOVE IT! But I am sure as hell not finding it easy to make money at it yet.
in the history of markets crashes are far and wide apart.....
what is worse than a crash is when the markets do nothing.....
corrective moves typically, hardly move, in any direction
and after a fast move like Dow has just had, what is likely is not price correction, but a time correction....with the market not having any trend for along time
this will frustrate both,bears and bulls.
and often this is what market loves to do.
I would not be surprised if the markets do nothing for 2-4 years
Ahh, no, those times have passed. The Markets are going to continue to go all Indiana Jones and shit on us, until well into the next presidency.