Quote from Bullz n Bearz:
Guys, I have to be honest here. I don't think trading is a lucrative business and here is why most people lose at trading.
The markets ARE very random and they cannot be predicted.
I wonder if you have any test data that shows your trading method produces profitable results.
A tool does not have to correctly predict the future to be useful.
A mousetrap
<img src=http://www.showcatsonline.com/images/mousetrap.jpg \img>
1) does not predict the future, and
2) sometimes catches a mouse.
===
Following are the results of a trading simulation using 37.52 years of weekly historic price data for Altria Group Inc. stock symbol MO. This method buys at the following trading session open if the weekly closing price is greater than the 40 week exponential moving average value, and sells if the weekly closing price is less than the 40 week exponential moving average value. This model simulates trading long positions only.
Number of trades 45
Total profit $ 668036
Profit after subtracting $ 10.00 commission, slippage per transaction: $ 667136
Heat is 7.00 per cent of equity.
Greatest drawdown is 0.0599 (5.99 per cent).
Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is 17.78 per cent.
Initial capital is $ 100000
Growth rate is about 18 % per year, greatest losing streak is about 6 %.