Trading Intuition
- Thread starter ChrisRT
- Start date
This is so bizarre, considering the timeliness of this tread. I hadn't had the feeling of a "mis-price" since Oct.3rd. I've just been treading water from mid Oct. on. This am. I had the most powerful feeling in months that this could be a crash day or week. Granted I have been bearish for a couple of weeks but not with any of that KNOW I'm right type of urgency. This morning I felt like Livermore selling futures higher on the day and I swear I could SEE the tape 40pts lower when the color was still green. I often ask myself after a day like this, why trade any other time? I guarantee I'll give half this money back in the next month on trades that I have no business making. I think when one's intuition puts them in moves this powerful, that under no circumstances should you cover. You wind up losing your position and then out of frustration taking a bad trade i.e. trying to pick a short term swing low when the least path of resistance is down.
P.S. How much is my intuition shaped in a vacum or a product of realizing that 1. Put/Call ratio has been way too low for over a week 2. Below 21 day MA 3.IBM 4.Enron 5.Argentinia 6.Isreal 7. Rejection of value above DIA 10,000 and NAZ 2,000
P.S. How much is my intuition shaped in a vacum or a product of realizing that 1. Put/Call ratio has been way too low for over a week 2. Below 21 day MA 3.IBM 4.Enron 5.Argentinia 6.Isreal 7. Rejection of value above DIA 10,000 and NAZ 2,000
I too am a great believer of intuition. I started trading from a very rigid and formal background, not very âfree flowingâ and open to intuitive experiences. But my mechanical systems I worked on were always behind my own feelings for where prices were going. In fact I get so strong a feeling at where prices will have support/resistance that many times I donât even use charts at all. I know my stock so well I can look at it and say at this price it will hold, and so forth. There must be some combination of experience and brain computation that computers cannot yet predict, if ever, in terms of emotions of the market.
Eventually it will always come back, the problem is letting go. Letting go of any pre-conceived notions of where I âthinkâ the price âshouldâ be. I might look at a chart or some indicator and say, yup it must rise from here. Then I feel odd, especially since I know the market doesnât care at all what I think. I donât care about past performance that much, other than learning from my mistakes, but those are my conscious mistakes, from being too rigid.
Eventually it will always come back, the problem is letting go. Letting go of any pre-conceived notions of where I âthinkâ the price âshouldâ be. I might look at a chart or some indicator and say, yup it must rise from here. Then I feel odd, especially since I know the market doesnât care at all what I think. I donât care about past performance that much, other than learning from my mistakes, but those are my conscious mistakes, from being too rigid.
This is more of where my impulses engaged that I was most interested in. Many times there are areas of congestion where buyers match sellers in a very narrow range. Most of the time, I sat out these congestion moves awaiting for some break in the range and enter on that side of the break. However, many impulses had me entering within this range "knowing" which side it would break.
Obviously this feeling was never 100%, but it served as a basis for entry that doesn't go within conventional trading systems..i.e., you can't teach a computer to enter long or short on such a hunch.
Lately, I watch these congestion areas with a much less frequency in impulses, and therefore much less activity in an average month as I distinguish for myself between intuition and "guessing" which side breaks. This lack of impulse has probably lead to a lessening degree in confidence in certain setups as well such as basing near lows, entering into resistance of the range low, looking for a breakdown continuation signal, etc.
Maybe my overanalysis of it all or inquiry into continues to hinder the process of getting back to that "zone" that an earlier post had talked about, but I still enjoy the insights of those on both side of the fence "real feeling vs. smoke and mirrors".
Personal intraday examples such as Pabst's are always interesting to me and sometimes add to the inspirational element of our trading that some need.
Regards,
Chris
Obviously this feeling was never 100%, but it served as a basis for entry that doesn't go within conventional trading systems..i.e., you can't teach a computer to enter long or short on such a hunch.
Lately, I watch these congestion areas with a much less frequency in impulses, and therefore much less activity in an average month as I distinguish for myself between intuition and "guessing" which side breaks. This lack of impulse has probably lead to a lessening degree in confidence in certain setups as well such as basing near lows, entering into resistance of the range low, looking for a breakdown continuation signal, etc.
Maybe my overanalysis of it all or inquiry into continues to hinder the process of getting back to that "zone" that an earlier post had talked about, but I still enjoy the insights of those on both side of the fence "real feeling vs. smoke and mirrors".
Personal intraday examples such as Pabst's are always interesting to me and sometimes add to the inspirational element of our trading that some need.
Regards,
Chris
This interaction is probably pretty positive then as I say what I say and someone is able to pick out the keys to my words and find where the "blame if you will" lays. Commisso, you and I talked earlier today in private and you will be happy to know I now have my copy of Bagger Vance in my hand..hopefully it sets me back on the right path.
My thanks,
Chris
My thanks,
Chris
