Just got back from NYC this weekend where I was talking to a bond trader friend of mine, who is at one of the majors.
He used to kid me about my doom and gloom pessimism, etc... now we're trading notes about which banks are most likely to fail.
Once this stuff starts hitting the mainstream and being believed by folks on the institutional side with size behind them its not a good thing. Perhaps even becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Going overseas to trade, maybe not such a terrible idea. However, choose wisely unless you find yourself in a worse situation with that nation undergoing its own instability caused by a US financial system collapse. And see below. There might not be much worth trading.
The big question is really what will replace the current system if it fails and fails spectacularly. You can't realistically place the entire country into penury or slavery. At some point, the enforcers will simply stop following orders. And then things will really break down as the rule of law is percieved to be unjust by a majority of the populus. That's a great way to foment a revolution, and that's a bad idea. Government usually requires the consent of those being governed and most people eventually will do the right thing (note:eventually might be longer than we all care).
I don't know what will happen. Here's a few things I am surmising.
- Static systems as opposed to dynamic ones.
- Great interest in restoring and preserving a status quo.
- Lack of job mobility and regional mobility.
- Planned economies a possibility
- Flat, static, low volatility markets
- End of conspicuous consumption & shortages of new goods
- Much more free time & less work - more self sufficiency.
In other words, a giant leap backwards. For a while. Then something else will happen.
That's my guess in a spectacular failure situation. Whether that ever comes to pass, however, well my guess is as good as anyone else's. Our current financial system may ultimately have a mind of its own.
