Trading in US. All big moves happen overnight

[Wallace]

agreed

here's a 60min chart of the ES for most of Nov
pale grey lines are the daily 5pm EST Close - 6pm Open
white lines indicate a few peak - trough examples and their coincidence with the
high/low volume, and 'out of hours' price moves
some of the high volume bars are 4pm, others 11am
volume kicks in every morning at 9:30am

one thing that can be seen is that profits are not being taken - based on volume -
on trades entered at the beginning of a trend, exiting at the end of the trend —
see the 11/10 - 11/13 white lines period as an example
it's a coincidence if a peak/trough/reversal does occur during rth high vol period

does that mean then that a lot of ES rth trades are hedges for stock trades ? -
that is trends aren't being traded, or are they
the 5 yr chart shows both volume and open interest has been building since 2002
this chart clearly illustrates the end/new contract exits/entrances/roll-overs - and
that the oi is now staying above the 1.5m level - trend trading

as Free Thinker said 'hold overnight', exit and re-enter after the daily close
having a trading partner in the Asian/Europe timezone is another strategy
otherwise the 'extra' volume is the many intraday traders scalping a few ticks, but
it's a living isn't it

 

[Petrobras]

Quote from Rickshaw Man:

Being flat at the end of the day excludes you from all the major moves. Small account size pretty much keeps you out due to the increased volitility. Just like Wednesday we will gap open the flatline all day.

so lets talk about what matters.

-day-trade and make money

-find a way to ride the trend and gaps (if you can. swing trading a couple days off the extreme prices of the range)

we seem to be in a range in SPY SPX for the "swing traders" chart lets use the last 6weeks

We've had both good down moves and good up moves on that chart

if you start talking about the 2 year and 5 year then we are not talking the same language


Here is wensdays chart you mentioned. Plenty of money to be made day trading

 

[Mercor]

The markets move where the news is. Right now its all about the Euro.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Rickshaw Man:

Being flat at the end of the day excludes you from all the major moves. Small account size pretty much keeps you out due to the increased volitility. Just like Wednesday we will gap open the flatline all day.

Most of you guys should not be trading the ES. Move to FX, which will start trading on Sunday evening and will keep trading till Friday afternoon. There is a currency that correlates to any market you choose. If you choose Oanda, you can very tightly manage your risk.

After you have a six figure cap, then come back to ES

 

[the1]

Easier solution, go to bed early and get up early. There's a lot happening between the hours of 6am and 9:30am ET, and then you have a few hours after the opening bell to get some icing. Holding a trade overnight brings too much risk because you don't know whether the news will be good or bad.

Quote from Free Thinker:

easy solution. hold overnight.

 

[GordonTheGekko]

Is anyone actually successfully trading overnight gaps with a >50% win rate and decent confidence factor?

 

[Cdntrader]

Quote from Rickshaw Man:

Being flat at the end of the day excludes you from all the major moves. Small account size pretty much keeps you out due to the increased volitility. Just like Wednesday we will gap open the flatline all day.

its just because of Europe. Europe is running the show for now. it won't always be that way.

Anyways if you are so hot to trade overnight, trade the DAX @ the 3am open.

Stay away from overnight ES..very illiquid at times.

 

[FrankSlaughtery]

Quote from Cdntrader:

its just because of Europe. Europe is running the show for now. it won't always be that way.

Anyways if you are so hot to trade overnight, trade the DAX @ the 3am open.

Stay away from overnight ES..very illiquid at times.

or try 6E

 

[AK100]

Most idiots don't want to hold 'overnight' because they think it's risky.

What they don't realise though is they actually carry more risk day trading because by definition their profits are limited to the range of that day.

Folks, look at a chart, there's far more to a market than the next two 5 min bars......

 

[mastacoli71]

Quote from GordonTheGekko:

Is anyone actually successfully trading overnight gaps with a >50% win rate and decent confidence factor?

Nobody can answer this question because they simply don't have the stats. They make big and loose big. All you hear about is the big winners when it is working and then in one day they blow up cause they build confidence and hold too much overnight and get stubborn. Been there done that.

If one is going to hold overnight, make sure there is compelling reason and that risk one is taking is fully understand. Holding for the simple fact that we have big moves overnight is not a reason.