Trading Ideas/Potential Trades

you could make a case for buy or sell side & make it look good
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I would love to see a valid case for buy side. I think it would be difficult to make it stick. I invite you to try. (Man I love a good debate!!)

all your opinions mean nothing if your wrong....agree ?.
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Of course!! Is that not the essence of speculation????? That was a sarcastic question right?


Maybe when you trade real money with the fund, the first thing that will come to mind is understanding risk
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Come now chartwiz, let's not get personal here. I've been trading "real money" for 7 years. Keep the discussion focused on the analysis, stay professional, and most importantly, be an adult.


the last thing I need to do is commit money short overnight & have big gaps against me because it was a 50 50 shot
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There's a distinct difference between professional traders and daytraders that don't hold over. In fact, sometimes, the best play is when the market opens gap against your net, and you trade it properly. Gaps are not something to fear! I don't scalp, I'll leave the change for others. Again, please provide at least SOME sort of market analysis to back your opinions. Simply saying "you shouldn't trade because you could be wrong" is probably the silliest thing I've heard all year. But I bet you were joking right?

would wait for the dailys to break up or down
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That's the point. My models are suggesting they have.

plus if I need to be the first person in the trade or trend, then I am a gambler not a trader, I rather be patient & let the trend tell me where to commit capital
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Please refer to the 60-min intraday chart of the Nas (I bet you didn't get that far down, it's ok, relax and enjoy). Getting short at this juncture is certainly not the first in line. In fact, it's almost a bit late, but there's still time. I am suggesting to you that waiting any longer would miss the move completely.

But of course you have every right to relax and enjoy your holiday and sincerely hope you are doing just that. Thank you for the dialogue. I invite you to present a bit more market relative analysis if you wish because your commentary and thinking are valuable, in my opinion.

We shall pick this back up I assume after you've taken a look at the market. But if you do get the itch to present your buy-side case, I would LOVE to hear it. I haven't heard a single buy side case for the past 5 days, let alone a good one. No, that's not true. My massage therapist made some comments similar to yours. IN fact, VERY similar.

Cheers,

Pejman Hamidi
 
I always hate contrary opinion...but Pej, you are right, everyone thinks we are going down. I posted some nice charts to that effect a few pages back, and everyone and their dog agrees with me. Kinda sucks actually coz I like to be a lone on these kind of things. Oh well, we will see what happens.

As for the "too late" comment..I dunno what to say really. Traders who think like that tend to be former traders sooner rather than later. There are always retracements that you can use to get back in. Good luck. Hope everyone had a great time for the Holidays.

B
 
Everyone seems to think we are going one way. Notice what happens when the majority seem to feel that way....The Week after SEPT 11th was a great example with all of the posts here saying don't short. Well long term traders who shorted got their heads handed to them if they didn't cover. The market will move in the opposite direction that the public thinks it will go.

I personally try to have no opinion. (I HAVEN"T SEEN CHARTS OF THE 2 STOCKS I SCALP ALL DAY FOR WEEKS) and don't plan to. Having an opinion is great just cut your losses when you are wrong.

Robert Tharp

http://communities.msn.com/rtharpsland
 
Brandonf wrote:

everyone thinks we are going down
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I feel quite the opposite. In my analysis of the financial medias bias, they are leaning towards the buy side saying things like "Argentina can't hurt us, therefore it must be bullish". Also, in reviewing sentiment indicators, the retail is firmly on the long side. Also, go check out the Ameritrade Index. Again, a good proxy as to what the public thinks. I haven't really heard any aggressive bearish arguments lately. I've heard a lot of buy side arguments, but not a single good one or one that I would care to listen to because it's the same regurjitated fluff about "looking into the future". There is a great deal of public complacency right now.

As for the "too late" comment..I dunno what to say really. Traders who think like that tend to be former traders sooner rather than later. There are always retracements that you can use to get back in.
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Good point brandonf. I want to clarify my "too late" comment by saying that specifically in regards to the potential set-up seen on the mult-day, 60-min chart, the appropriate entry point is a retracement to test the neckline following the initial breakdown. The retracement took place at the end of last week, and we are now at the "conservative" entry point. The more aggressive position would have been laid on at the implied top of the right shoulder, with the next entry being the actual break through the trendline/neckline. The least aggressive entry is the retracement to test. Therefore, any future retracements will "technically" not reach the current level. I hope this clarifies it. But nevertheless, good point on the importance of patience.

rtharp says...

Everyone seems to think we are going one way.
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rtharp, I highly respect your opinion, so I would like to know which direction you feel the masses are leaning on? As I stated above, I get the strong sense that the masses are optimistic at this juncture, but based on the false expectations instilled by companies like Juniper last quarter, followed by their confession last week that they will miss their numbers, the market is extremely vulnerable to downside activity because prices are discounting relative perfection and zero shocks.

As you said, there is nothing wrong with being wrong. It is a part of the game. Not speculating when you have a strong opinion is a mistake. The ability to cut ones losses makes speculation much more practical.

Pej
 
I enjoy chatting with you........non of my posts are to be reflected as a negetive to you,.............I agree as i said with your opinion to the short side..........but I personally have no desire to be long or short & commit funds here...........but I enjoy this chatting, your a good solid person & you know what your doing,.........Chris
 
Pej

I tend to stay away from the general market opinions for a few reasons.

First I do arbitrage so I am unaffected by the markets general direction.

2nd when the arbitrage opportunities aren't around (which they usually are) then I trade a heavily overbought/oversold system (which I'd be rusty at for a small time as I haven't traded that for over 4 months).

I like what Ed Seykota once taught my father and some other students.

.......

Do you see this chart? (he points to a chart that is across the room from all of the students)....??

Everyone answers yes.

Which was is the trend going?

From across the room the audience could see that the security was making new highs and all agreed up.

Ed quickly proclaims. Good now you guys can read a chart. This one is uptrending.

That's all there is to it.


For me personally I used to go into each trading day with a list of shorts/longs. I would look at CNBC and see the 3 cash indexes on the corner of the screen. If they were all red I would only play shorts for the day. If they were all green I'd only play longs for the day.

If they were mixed I'd play both sides but reduce my position sizing. When trades didn't do what I expected or went against me I stopped out. When they worked I would reduce my position size by peeling out shares till the day ended. Overall I made great money doing this. That's how I analyze the market. I can get 500 traders in the same room and get 500 responses to where the market is going. Overall I try not to spend all my time analyzing the market, I try to just react to highly profitable situations and find setups of high probability with high reward to risk ratio situations. So my opinion of the market isn't one you would truly want. I don't hold a magic wand nor am I right 100% of the time.

Hope that offers some different perspective.

now my view
WIth that statement I think the masses are out of the market for quite some time. THe Sept 11th was the panic selling we really needed to have some exhaustion. The public isn't running to put all of their money straight into mutual funds and stocks anymore. I no longer get advise from my personal trainers at the gym or waiters about how I should be trading. One of my co-workers who has d8trader on his license plate for his NSX isn't looked at with a lot of admiration, it's more like self pity (poor guys daytrades) So the majority are sitting still on the sidelines. In fact quite a few have been shorting this market all the way up since Sept 11th. I see more of a sideways market for awhile neither up nor down--but I'm ready to react if proven wrong.

Robert Tharp
 
I think you make the point as well as it can be made that a trader should be more concerned with what <s>he is going to do and not what the market is going to do. Each trader has 100% control over themselves, and none over the market.

B
 
To be concerned with what one is going to do, one must first interpret what the market is going to do.

In college, while I was studying Philosophy, the principle behind our discussions was for the pursuit of knowledge. All arguments were presented with an unbiased, open view, and the presenter was genuinely presenting his or her argument because they wanted to "assist the listener in broadening their knowledge", and the listener, when arguing their point was trying to reciprocate the "generosity".

In other words, my persistence in trying to generate dialogue is so that we present our analysis in open forum and learn from one another, or use one another to expand our understanding of the self.

There have been many times when I've presented a strategy to my traders in expectation of them executing specific trades, and in the process of explaining to them why I had a certain bias, I would catch mysel in error and would actually revise my strategy significantly. Had I not intended to share my assumptions with the jr's, I would have never had the chance to revise my models and would have ended up taking losses.

In this forum especially, never take anothers market opinion personally. Your opinion and you are diametrically opposed. In life, one does not live a rich life if they were constantly trying to take money out of another persons pocket. Nor would they be spiritually healthy if they always felt that others were trying to outsmart them and therefore he had to be deceptive. In the market, these traits are the foundation of any speculator.

When arguing in the sense that we're pursuing knowledge, never let it get personal.

Pej.
 
Pej.............

Markets trended up today so far out of a sideways range from last week ...........I know you felt last week & all weekend until last night that last week was the last chance to get short before a violent breakdown.........now what ? Do you cover shorts or add to your shorts or stay short ??.......made no sense to me to short over triples & over christmas

This was the reason I would not have been short overnight from last week & felt making a big analysis of the markets over the holiday & triples was just wasted energy to me.....flip of a coin at best ......

This is what I have been doing today in my office.....

I have been working longs all day today for short term trading...........Trin has been low from the very early going & markets broke out UP from sideways range ...........


Aside from short term buys today, I am looking for & working shorts in weak stocks not particpating into this uptrend today to take home overnight . Stocks that are weaker today/diverging with the SP index basically will be the best shorts....


I am now working stocks holding well in uptrend for short term buys & working shorts in stocks that are weak in uptrend for larger move...................if markets fail I will exit longs & stay with shorts....if markets rally...I will take longs into closeing mins & continue to work shorts on weaker stocks...........


I rather work shorts on weaker stocks in a uptrend in the market indexes.........than to guess a directin in the middle of a sideways range as the odds where 50/50 as I said.......

Trin is still low & markets having a correction here...watch the strong stocks for buys, leaders & weaker stocks for shorts........3:30-4:pm is the best time frame to get short weakest shares today......

I am not giving any stocks as I do not want to influence you or be influenced from any stocks I have the other side of a position on with you or anybody else.......

Goodluck

Chris
 
Yawn..I just stepped into the office for a minute. Looks like a nice trend day (UP). TRIN staying low, TICKs staying strong. Makes good sense that it would happen as we have had quiet a coil in volatility and everyone is leaning one way (short). Right now a lot of the top Nasdaq names seem to be at the 20ema's possibly ready for the closing bounce. Load up..its the last chance to buy before you miss the boat :eek: LOL

Brandon
 
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