Quote from gober:
...I don't think the hammer patterns work really well in HK...
I don't know what your stats are but here's a brief summary of the most recent price action of the Hang Seng HSI futures via the 2min through the 60min chart.
* 17 valid Bullish White Hammer patterns
* 4 failed patterns (initial stop/loss reached before either reaching a WRB pt1 or a trigger price to prompt moving the initial stop into a profitable trailing stop)
* 1 questionable trade (loss or profit depending upon the entry)
* 2 contingency plans activated of those failed patterns that resulted in 2 profitable short positions that reached profit levels to erase the prior losing hammer trade
* 12 of the 17 bullish white hammer patterns reached a WRB pt1 profit level (12 profitable results out of the initial 17 pattern signals).
* 5 of the 17 profitable bullish white hammer patterns reached a WRB pt3 level and beyond (big profits).
* Some had wide stops while others did not have wide stops...depending upon your definition of a wide stop.
If your recent stats aren't similar, I highly advise for you to re-read this thread and to write down the rules (criteria).
With that said, I've attached a particular 30 min chart because it represents a few things I mentioned in my prior post to you.
There were two profitable Bullish White Hammer patterns...both reaching a WRB pt1 level.
However, see the first BWH on Feb 7th Weds, pretend it didn't reach that WRB pt1 and lets pretend it retraced with you still in the trade when that
contingency plan appeared (I've discussed in-depth in this thread that particular contingency plan)...
Pretending its a losing position, you reverse the Long position into a Short position.
The Gap down at the Open the next trading day is a WRB pt1.
As the HSI continues downwards, it reaches a WRB pt2 around 20416.
Now, the actual WRB pt2 formed around 20525 with plenty of time remaining in that particular 30min interval.
Not shown on the chart is a key s/r zone.
Simply, if you had contract remainders after covering some of that Short at the WRB pt1...that key s/r zone if a good cover area for the remainders as the HSI reached the s/r zone.
Lets take a quick look at the second Bullish White Hammer pattern on Feb 12th Monday that resulted as a profit as shown on the chart.
Remember a few times in this thread I said that Bullish White Hammer patterns also behave as key s/r zones?
Now take the range of that White Hammer Line from the bullish pattern and look at the price action that developed afterwards within that range.
(Do the same for the BWH on Feb 7th Weds).
Anytime I get a pattern signal within a s/r zone...I tend to either do one or two of the following:
* Increase my position size
* Hold profitable trades much longer beyond a WRB pt2 level.
* ADD to the position, within the s/r zone, if my initial entry was below my normal position size.
Yet, no pattern signal developed within the s/r zone of that Bullish White Hammer pattern on Monday.
I just wanted to show that regardless if a valid Bullish White Hammer pattern is profitable or fails...
You can still exploit its price action long after the Bullish White Hammer pattern.
Useful information (s/r zones) for someone that trades breakouts or fades breakouts.
P.S. Based upon what I said above about s/r zones...guess where the s/r zone is on the below prior chart I posted in my first reply to you.
Do you see what the price action did later around 1436hrs?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1365752
Mark
(a.k.a.
NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term