Trading Gold (Metal, ETFs, Futures)
- Thread starter kmiklas
- Start date
You'll never succeed as a trader...if you're not resourceful, and smart, and inquisitive and observant and open-minded on your own
You kind of have to be like Nicholas Cage in National Treasure 2004 movie --
...that's kind of a bad example, actually, since in the movie he kind of had alot of help along the way -- but you get the point, more or less
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Keith,
Start with exchange education for what you need. You will get familiar with the expert authors. There is a mountain of literature. Go down the wrong path, and you could find yourself building a nuclear bunker for the end of the world or joining a terrorist group.
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/browse-all.html#pageNum=1#filters=cmegroup:Products/Metals
Additionally, any book on the mining industry may provide even better insight.
Start with exchange education for what you need. You will get familiar with the expert authors. There is a mountain of literature. Go down the wrong path, and you could find yourself building a nuclear bunker for the end of the world or joining a terrorist group.
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/browse-all.html#pageNum=1#filters=cmegroup:Products/Metals
Additionally, any book on the mining industry may provide even better insight.
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If you going to buy the physical, can't beat older pre-civil war 1800's gold coins, but since you asking, will be taken as you need some experience in collecting, if you just adding gold new coins, best to buy at some point Gold in futures markets are dropping so you buy at bottom of or falling cycles of the commodity and not as much as 20% higher. You will most of the time have older gold U.S. mintage and not crap you see on TV, no jewelry as you only get the worst deal ever buying that at very high and sell another lifetime from now.
Think in terms of stocks with dividends, and again you track Gold commodities like BYP, BYL, although small EGO is nice low stock and think can take off. I like NEM better than ABX and small dividends.
But when in doubt, don't.
Think in terms of stocks with dividends, and again you track Gold commodities like BYP, BYL, although small EGO is nice low stock and think can take off. I like NEM better than ABX and small dividends.
But when in doubt, don't.
The best information I have found on precious metals is on google scholar. Look for studies on the bullion market there is some really good stuff out there on the structure of the market and what drives price.
The Hows and Whys of Gold Price Manipulation
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/17/hows-whys-gold-price-manipulation/
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/17/hows-whys-gold-price-manipulation/
Things to look at before jumping into a gold stock / option:
- all in sustaining cost (AISC)-very, very important!
– cash on hand
- debt to equity
- ferret out seasonal gold price studies (rough guidance for exit / entry)
Follow / chart the better miners (stay away from penny stock
nonsense)Just a few random remarks I have saved in the past because I thought they were interesting and might be useful in the future. I didn't save all the references. Some of the articles might be a year of so old, but I started collecting them last Summer.
I was going to do some research and try to write my own analysis of the gold industry and try to define where the most gold is mine, who owns the most, ratio of paper traded gold to physical gold, ratio of gold to silver etc.
Sometimes I would see something on line and tell myself I was going to go back and copy it, then I would lose the link....
Then, my laptop went bonkers and I lost my earliest entries ..no back up copy.. then I lost interest in the idea.
I also wanted to learn more about Nixon taking us off the gold standard.
FDR is the one that outlawed the possession of gold in 1932 and bought it from our grandparents at $29 an ounce and then 6 months later priced it at $35 an ounce.
Technically, as far as I am concerned; this is when we left the gold standard.
Nixon made it formal in 1971 and it had something to do with OPEC/Value of the Dollar and the price of oil, but I can't find a proper reference to it.
I was trying to find a legitimate source of information but the info I was looking for was like a cop, you can never find one when you need it.
------------------
http://www.gold.org/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/?s=gold
---------------
There are 35k tons of gold in the world since 2010 China and Russia have bought 5k tons
Venezuela began selling its gold reserves in March 2015, according to IMF data. At roughly 367 tonnes, Venezuela has the world’s 16th-biggest gold reserves, according to the World Gold Council. In contrast, China and Russia both added to their gold holdings this year, the data show.
Gold prices have risen 15 per cent this year. Last year Venezuela’s central bank swapped part of its gold reserves for $1bn in cash through a complex agreement with Citi.
The late president Hugo Chávez had said he would free Venezuela from the “dictatorship of the dollar” and directed the central bank to ditch the US dollar and start amassing gold instead. In 2011, as a safeguard against market instability, Chávez brought most of the gold stored overseas back to Caracas.
The gold swap is another indication the country is desperate for cash. Venezuela and its national oil company PDVSA have some $6bn to repay in principal and interest payments this year, according to Russ Dallen of investment bank Caracas Capital Markets.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c674defa-2281-11e6-aa98-db1e01fabc0c.html#axzz49iwwlqCD
Gold output across the globe hit an all-time high in 2015, climbing 1.8 percent to 3,211 tonnes. Much of this growth was led by Mexico, whose output increased double digits (18 percent) from 112 tonnes in 2014 to 133 tonnes last year. Indonesia grew 20 percent, Kazakhstan 29 percent.
This year, global production is expected to level out as project development budgets were slashed during the three-year gold bear market. But with gold prices rebounding, miners are in a good position to be much more profitable.
Below, explore and discover the world’s top 10 gold producing mines.
View As: One Page Slides
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-10-gold-producing-mines-in-the-world-2016-9/#1-muruntau-10
------------------------
My point is that Russia’s most potent weapon may not be its nuclear warheads. The fastest-evolving “weapon” in Russia’s geopolitical arsenal is that nation’s hoard of gold, along with Russia’s national currency, the ruble.
It means that the ruble is as much a part of Russia’s tool kit of governance as Russia’s army, navy or air force, up to and including those nuclear missiles that were discussed in the 60 Minutessegment.
In July of this year, the central bank of Russia added 200,000 ounces of gold to its reserves.The one-month uptick in Russian gold reserves — 200,000 ounces — is approximately equal to the entire annual output of Barrick Gold’s Turquoise Ridge gold mine in Nevada.
Gold is part of Russia’s national plan.
In his 2011 book Currency Wars, Jim used an example of “what if” Russia and China combined their gold reserves to form a gold-backed currency to compete against the dollar. Take current Russian reserves of about 1,500 tonnes and add Chinese reserves, which total over 1,800 tonnes (or so the Chinese say — it’s likely more). That’s a combined 3,300 tonnes of gold, or about the same amount as Germany.
Now consider that in the months to come, the U.S. is about to lose overarching control of policymaking within the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The U.S. lockup on global gold is about to vanish. So let’s consider the real possibility that Russia-China could exercise indirect (or even direct) control over the IMF’s gold reserve of over 2,800 tonnes.
Between Russian, Chinese and IMF gold, we have 6,100 tonnes of gold, potentially in competition with the U.S. hoard of 8,100 tonnes. That situation does not bode well for the future of the dollar. It’s right up the alley of Jim’s predictions of severe dollar problems ahead.
---------------
Gold is used in jewelry
50 percent of silver is used in industrial uses.
Silver is not rare
17X more silver available than gold
50, 60 , 70 ratio of gold to silver
Statistically the 1Q is the best Q for gold prices……………..
Copper prices based on consumption supply and demand
Copper is an indicator of the economy…………..
Platinum is used in catalytic converters…….also jewelry and coins investment
supply constrained- hardest to mine.only a few countries mine it. Russia, Zimbabwe South Africa are the largest producers
It’s rarity drives its price.
I was going to do some research and try to write my own analysis of the gold industry and try to define where the most gold is mine, who owns the most, ratio of paper traded gold to physical gold, ratio of gold to silver etc.
Sometimes I would see something on line and tell myself I was going to go back and copy it, then I would lose the link....
Then, my laptop went bonkers and I lost my earliest entries ..no back up copy.. then I lost interest in the idea.
I also wanted to learn more about Nixon taking us off the gold standard.
FDR is the one that outlawed the possession of gold in 1932 and bought it from our grandparents at $29 an ounce and then 6 months later priced it at $35 an ounce.
Technically, as far as I am concerned; this is when we left the gold standard.
Nixon made it formal in 1971 and it had something to do with OPEC/Value of the Dollar and the price of oil, but I can't find a proper reference to it.
I was trying to find a legitimate source of information but the info I was looking for was like a cop, you can never find one when you need it.
------------------
http://www.gold.org/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/?s=gold
---------------
There are 35k tons of gold in the world since 2010 China and Russia have bought 5k tons
Venezuela began selling its gold reserves in March 2015, according to IMF data. At roughly 367 tonnes, Venezuela has the world’s 16th-biggest gold reserves, according to the World Gold Council. In contrast, China and Russia both added to their gold holdings this year, the data show.
Gold prices have risen 15 per cent this year. Last year Venezuela’s central bank swapped part of its gold reserves for $1bn in cash through a complex agreement with Citi.
The late president Hugo Chávez had said he would free Venezuela from the “dictatorship of the dollar” and directed the central bank to ditch the US dollar and start amassing gold instead. In 2011, as a safeguard against market instability, Chávez brought most of the gold stored overseas back to Caracas.
The gold swap is another indication the country is desperate for cash. Venezuela and its national oil company PDVSA have some $6bn to repay in principal and interest payments this year, according to Russ Dallen of investment bank Caracas Capital Markets.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c674defa-2281-11e6-aa98-db1e01fabc0c.html#axzz49iwwlqCD
Gold output across the globe hit an all-time high in 2015, climbing 1.8 percent to 3,211 tonnes. Much of this growth was led by Mexico, whose output increased double digits (18 percent) from 112 tonnes in 2014 to 133 tonnes last year. Indonesia grew 20 percent, Kazakhstan 29 percent.
This year, global production is expected to level out as project development budgets were slashed during the three-year gold bear market. But with gold prices rebounding, miners are in a good position to be much more profitable.
Below, explore and discover the world’s top 10 gold producing mines.
View As: One Page Slides
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-10-gold-producing-mines-in-the-world-2016-9/#1-muruntau-10
------------------------
My point is that Russia’s most potent weapon may not be its nuclear warheads. The fastest-evolving “weapon” in Russia’s geopolitical arsenal is that nation’s hoard of gold, along with Russia’s national currency, the ruble.
It means that the ruble is as much a part of Russia’s tool kit of governance as Russia’s army, navy or air force, up to and including those nuclear missiles that were discussed in the 60 Minutessegment.
In July of this year, the central bank of Russia added 200,000 ounces of gold to its reserves.The one-month uptick in Russian gold reserves — 200,000 ounces — is approximately equal to the entire annual output of Barrick Gold’s Turquoise Ridge gold mine in Nevada.
Gold is part of Russia’s national plan.
In his 2011 book Currency Wars, Jim used an example of “what if” Russia and China combined their gold reserves to form a gold-backed currency to compete against the dollar. Take current Russian reserves of about 1,500 tonnes and add Chinese reserves, which total over 1,800 tonnes (or so the Chinese say — it’s likely more). That’s a combined 3,300 tonnes of gold, or about the same amount as Germany.
Now consider that in the months to come, the U.S. is about to lose overarching control of policymaking within the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The U.S. lockup on global gold is about to vanish. So let’s consider the real possibility that Russia-China could exercise indirect (or even direct) control over the IMF’s gold reserve of over 2,800 tonnes.
Between Russian, Chinese and IMF gold, we have 6,100 tonnes of gold, potentially in competition with the U.S. hoard of 8,100 tonnes. That situation does not bode well for the future of the dollar. It’s right up the alley of Jim’s predictions of severe dollar problems ahead.
---------------
Gold is used in jewelry
50 percent of silver is used in industrial uses.
Silver is not rare
17X more silver available than gold
50, 60 , 70 ratio of gold to silver
Statistically the 1Q is the best Q for gold prices……………..
Copper prices based on consumption supply and demand
Copper is an indicator of the economy…………..
Platinum is used in catalytic converters…….also jewelry and coins investment
supply constrained- hardest to mine.only a few countries mine it. Russia, Zimbabwe South Africa are the largest producers
It’s rarity drives its price.
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