Trading Gaps

[Samson77]

Quote from TriPack:

An additional bit of refinement on the concept of overnight session volume being predictive of future moves, take the overnight session's range and divide it by the previous session's day only range. If it is greater than 50% then odds are very high the following RTH session will be a big range day. I define big range days as 120% or more than the average daily range.

Very interesting Tripack I will watch that closely.

Thanks.

 

[dbphoenix]

What constitutes "very high"?

 

[mr.charts]

The original question seemed to be about shares but most comments have discussed futures.
As a trader and coach in the UK I frequently trade opening gaps on shares.
One of the techniques I find very useful is not to become too fixated on whether the gap will actually close, but to look more at the premarket trading and to trade breaks of the pre-market high or low provided that level is breached with clear directional movement.

 

[Samson77]

It is very easy for the floortraders to run the premarket futures prices.

This is why volume becomes so very important and another reason that market enviroment needs to be addressed.

 

[Cheese]

Ah Mr Charts .. who doesn't provide full seminar notes and who offers no proof of his alleged trading success to the suckers he draws in.

Did not think you would have the red neck to dare poke your beak in here at ET!!!!!!!!!

Been waiting for you pal.

 

[mind]

Quote from TriPack:

An additional bit of refinement on the concept of overnight session volume being predictive of future moves, take the overnight session's range and divide it by the previous session's day only range. If it is greater than 50% then odds are very high the following RTH session will be a big range day. I define big range days as 120% or more than the average daily range.

best range predictor i found is yesterday's range. amusingly simple.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from mind:

best range predictor i found is yesterday's range.

In what way?

 

[mind]

recent high range indicates high range today. furthermore if recent (five to ten trading days) trading range was big this indicates not only big range today but shifts expectations for today upwards. the effect is almost tradeable in itself.


peace

 

[dbphoenix]

So if there was a wide-range day in any of the last ten sessions, that indicates a wide-range day for the current day? Seems like one could expect every day to be a wide-range day.

 

[mind]

no. i did not test it that way. you are clearly right. that is nonsense.

1 take highest high and the lowest low of the last x days. look at the average of this value over the last fifteen years.

2 calc the average dailyGain (close/open -1)

3 calc the average dailyGain and vary the preceeding range as defined under 1

the message is: the bigger the range of recent x days the 1. wieder today's range and the bigger today's expected gain.


peace