Trading Full-Time Is Not What I Fantasized

Quote from AnnaG:

Not sure if you're familiar with Hurst's cyclic analysis but when you take the mathematics to the extreme you realise that there wavelengths at work which are beyond our present detection, simply because insufficient time has passed for enough data to have formed to calculate the sums, or algorithms, or algae-rhythms, whichever you prefer.

In other words, when trading we can only backtest/trade that which we know. And if we can only use the data we have available then we are effectively creating codes in a closed system, when in reality we are trying to trade an open system. These difficulties are particularly amplified when trading intraday, as the relative volatility increases as you progressively get into smaller timeframes. It's also helpful to note that the species of volatility that will usually catch out a code is the kind resulting from market suppression and its subsequent natural re-adjustment.

Sometimes, it's a good idea to go back to the beginning and test a really simple code on a huge 24hr market, and see what happens to the projected outcome as you reduce the timeframe(s). In other words, see if the code will catch an elephant before going after the mice.

Yes, being a engineer by edification I bought Hurst's little monograph 25 or so years ago and wasted far too much of my meagre intellectual horsepower on transform analysis, which back then was a non-trivial exercise computationally. Using EOD data, every solution I found rapidly diverged from reality outside the test data set. A pretty notion, but at the time I concluded that it was a crock and moved on. I never looked at it intraday, but my guess would be that exogenous factors such as news or exchange rates would make it an exercise in futility. I work at the tick level, and what I see happening is support/resistance, book balancing, shakeouts, and lemming-like behavior. None of that needs transform theory to explain it. I am sad to say that the rest of what you wrote went over my tired old head. But I will ponder it. I run all my codes 24/7 and will look for what you said. Gone for a few days, back to the slammer for parole violation. Lots of time to think and dream the market.
 
Last year I eventually hired eight layed off local defense engineers, taught them methods I wanted traded, and have three shifts going, they code, backtest when waiting for signals. Should have done this years ago as it frees up time to work on new projects, get much more sleep, work with some students and test more money management ideas.

Day trading is ungodly boring, I can only walk on treadmill so long waiting for trades. Some methods are just too hard to automate. But I do have four automated systems, I never cancel the trades any more, the methods just do better than when I altered during the day.

I actually bought a devise where if my chin drops to my chest, an alarm goes off, LOL.
 
Quote from Duref Mudgins:

Yes, being a engineer by edification I bought Hurst's little monograph 25 or so years ago and wasted far too much of my meagre intellectual horsepower on transform analysis, which back then was a non-trivial exercise computationally. Using EOD data, every solution I found rapidly diverged from reality outside the test data set. A pretty notion, but at the time I concluded that it was a crock and moved on. I never looked at it intraday, but my guess would be that exogenous factors such as news or exchange rates would make it an exercise in futility. I work at the tick level, and what I see happening is support/resistance, book balancing, shakeouts, and lemming-like behavior. None of that needs transform theory to explain it. I am sad to say that the rest of what you wrote went over my tired old head. But I will ponder it. I run all my codes 24/7 and will look for what you said. Gone for a few days, back to the slammer for parole violation. Lots of time to think and dream the market.

Sigmond, I bet you are a real hoot in real life. You have always been one the most spectacularly entertaining people on ET.

If you are winning, I am very glad for you, you have definitely put in your 10000 hours.

I hit this epiphany recently as well, that trading is anything but a glamour job. I am very thankful that I was smart enuf to maintain my profession as an RN. It gets me out of the house.

Further, I realized that I wasted a few thousand hours coding, and rehashing what I already knew but did not know that I knew it.

Now, I draw a few lines, and trade off of those lines. Most days are small losers, but then the probabilities kick in, and I get that trend day.

I should have been rich years and years ago. Trading is truly about mastering the ego. Which is why I love your handle:D
 
Quote from Duref Mudgins:



As to the perfect automated system, it is a gynecoid that looks and feels like a real woman but does what I tell it to. The ultimate financial goal of my trading is to buy or develop or program such a thing.


Reminds me of the Cherry 2000 movie.

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kckEEQKXaCU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
Try monthly time frame.There only 12 candles in a year.Color them different colors and chose the color you like.You`ll have fun,i promise.
 
Quote from Wide Tailz:

Thanks.

Both systems made new highs today. I cringed when they both stayed long last week. I seriously thought the market topped last week.

Funny thing is they're just coded versions of a very simple daytrading scalping method I learned from a DVD set I bought from one of the cheesiest websites out there.

He had ads running about two years ago. I was new enough at this to still have an open mind so I spent the $700 (less than the cost of one college class, by the way).

I hated the method but it killed, just absolutely killed, everything else I wanted to try.

Everything I now do in the market is based on that simple scalping method from that ridiculous website.


Wide Tailz,

are you referring to these guys here: tradestocksamerica.com ?

Did some searching in your old posts ;-)


I will have to agree with the topic of this thread: day trading sucks big time. It wears you out in the long run.
 
Yeah, when I first got into this a few years ago I had the same aspirations as the topic starter.... lol.

But in reality nothing is as sexy and glamorous in real life as movies and magazines portray it. One of my college friends is a doctor now, and his job is not glamorous at all. Not that he hates it, but yeah, I remember he was looking forward to living the idealized country club lifestyle that most people associate with doctors. The same is probably true for lots of other people in other professions that have high earning potential or 'high status' reputations.
 
Quote from RCG Trader:

Sigmond, I bet you are a real hoot in real life. You have always been one the most spectacularly entertaining people on ET.

If you are winning, I am very glad for you, you have definitely put in your 10000 hours.

I hit this epiphany recently as well, that trading is anything but a glamour job. I am very thankful that I was smart enuf to maintain my profession as an RN. It gets me out of the house.

Further, I realized that I wasted a few thousand hours coding, and rehashing what I already knew but did not know that I knew it.

Now, I draw a few lines, and trade off of those lines. Most days are small losers, but then the probabilities kick in, and I get that trend day.

I should have been rich years and years ago. Trading is truly about mastering the ego. Which is why I love your handle:D


And that is why an EGO is one cycle of 360 degrees (E=3, G=6, O=0). We start out with knowledge, and end with knowing, ready to begin another revolution of learning. I think that's in Kung Fu Panda somewhere? Something like that anyway.
 
get an office suite in the nice part time of town and trade a few days a week at the office and a few days at home. its best to keep home/work separate imho. This is the best way to stay sane day trading if you fly solo. Maybe find a few other traders in your city and split up a small office suite. put on a nice shirt/shave/drive to the office but again you work for yourself so you are not forced to drive in everyday like a working stiff has too
 
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