Trading Forex

A

AM Bankus

What I am doing with the Forex....

I am going to capitalize on the JPY movement buy selling it after a relevant market retracement (primarily a .382) in all crosses.........watching out for the GBP/JPY which could be the only spoiler in the bunch.
I am also selling the GBP/USD at 1.5861 with a stop at 1.5965 and a limit at 1.5433. The GBP has been a geographical benefactor of the (perceived) good news out of Europe. With Halifax HPI, Manufacturing (which may be worse than what people are expecting) and Construction numbers coming out on Thursday and Friday, traders may price in a short move. Combine this with a technical inner trend line and you can see my thought for the short.
I am also short the NZD/USD at .8365 with a stop at .8450 and a Limit at .8245. This pair is looking top heavy and is what the old "risk on money was doing". This pair is looking over bought and its inability to make higher highs is a big reason I am looking at it to the south. Face it money is leaving there and traveling into places.....time to take profit, or short for profit.
Finally I am adding the USD/CHF to the mix. After breaking through the SnR at .9100 and falling below the .618, the natural finish to the move is a .786 fall. I am looking for an entry at the old .618 price of .8959 short with a stop at .9080 and a Limit at .8786.
 
Quote from AM Bankus:

What I am doing with the Forex....

I am going to capitalize on the JPY movement buy selling it after a relevant market retracement (primarily a .382) in all crosses.........watching out for the GBP/JPY which could be the only spoiler in the bunch.
I am also selling the GBP/USD at 1.5861 with a stop at 1.5965 and a limit at 1.5433. The GBP has been a geographical benefactor of the (perceived) good news out of Europe. With Halifax HPI, Manufacturing (which may be worse than what people are expecting) and Construction numbers coming out on Thursday and Friday, traders may price in a short move. Combine this with a technical inner trend line and you can see my thought for the short.
I am also short the NZD/USD at .8365 with a stop at .8450 and a Limit at .8245. This pair is looking top heavy and is what the old "risk on money was doing". This pair is looking over bought and its inability to make higher highs is a big reason I am looking at it to the south. Face it money is leaving there and traveling into places.....time to take profit, or short for profit.
Finally I am adding the USD/CHF to the mix. After breaking through the SnR at .9100 and falling below the .618, the natural finish to the move is a .786 fall. I am looking for an entry at the old .618 price of .8959 short with a stop at .9080 and a Limit at .8786.
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that's something similar to what I do. I haven't been doing it that long, but my experience was the first thing to do was get rid of the stops, and treat the whole thing as a portfolio. Keep in mind, it doesn't matter how many pairs you have on, if they all individually are trading a losing strategy then it will just be a slow death.
second is get rid of the targets, IMHO that is certain death.

I use the profit taker system. That's where you finally get flat when the whole bottom line shows you a nice (usually 5 to 10 percent) profit on the whole account.

I'm almost never flat, it's hard to hit that target on the whole portfolio and when I get flat I go to the store and start it all back up again.

It takes a long time to put on a full load, for me several weeks.

At the moment I am just trading two pairs AUD.USD and AUD.JPY, but the principle is the same.

good luck
 
man, that long AUD/JPY vs short AUD/USD worked out pretty well. I had a decent loss this morning and 50% dry powder when I just gave up and took a nap. When I woke up the whole account was up 13%.

I didn't even think about it, I just got flat.

That's why I say targets are certain death. If I had been awake there would have been somebody there to take the profit (and I would have been happy with another piddling days wages.)

After I thought about it a while, I just put the same damn position on (only now I'm just at a starter size.)
 
Quote from oldtime:

man, that long AUD/JPY vs short AUD/USD worked out pretty well. I had a decent loss this morning and 50% dry powder when I just gave up and took a nap. When I woke up the whole account was up 13%.

I didn't even think about it, I just got flat.

That's why I say targets are certain death. If I had been awake there would have been somebody there to take the profit (and I would have been happy with another piddling days wages.)

After I thought about it a while, I just put the same damn position on (only now I'm just at a starter size.)
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Why didn't you just go long USD/JPY ?

Same exposure as your synthetic, and usually there's a smaller transaction cost with the dollar/yen overall compared to the cross and AUD/USD.
 
Quote from Jack_Larkin:

Why didn't you just go long USD/JPY ?

Same exposure as your synthetic, and usually there's a smaller transaction cost with the dollar/yen overall compared to the cross and AUD/USD.
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all the money was made in the short AUD/USD
 
So what?

You had a synthetic USD/JPY position on...



http://www.babypips.com/school/creating-synthetic-pairs.html



Same result, less positions, less total spread/cost...


Every dollar you made on the short AUD/USD that had to do with the Australian dollar losing value was offset by the long AUD exposure you had on the other pair. The net difference between the two was the result of the USD gaining value over the yen... and you could have gotten that same exposure for cheaper than paying the spread on the other pairs.
 
Quote from Jack_Larkin:

So what?

You had a synthetic USD/JPY position on...



http://www.babypips.com/school/creating-synthetic-pairs.html



Same result, less positions, less total spread/cost...


Every dollar you made on the short AUD/USD that had to do with the Australian dollar losing value was offset by the long AUD exposure you had on the other pair. The net difference between the two was the result of the USD gaining value over the yen... and you could have gotten that same exposure for cheaper than paying the spread on the other pairs.
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yeah, but I didn't know that. So because of my ignorance I am up many thousands of dollars for the day in USD.

Like the man said, "All's well that ends well."

otherwise, I think you are missing the point that I put these on a little at a time and am almost never 50 long 50 short except maybe on Fri afternoon or before something is going to happen.

so like I said I was 2/3 short AUD/USD and maybe 1/3 or less long AUD/JPY

If you want to call that offset go ahead
 
Ok, sure dude... I try to help by pointing out a cheaper way of getting the same thing done and you pull any technical reason why I'm "wrong" out from your position that you previously hadn't mentioned.

You're welcome.

I wish you and your "thousands" of newly minted profit the best of luck. :)

But I'm done holding hands tonight.
 
Quote from Jack_Larkin:

Ok, sure dude... I try to help by pointing out a cheaper way of getting the same thing done and you pull any technical reason why I'm "wrong" out from your position that you previously hadn't mentioned.

The egos on ET amaze me sometimes.

You're welcome for the help. I wish you and your "thousands" of newly minted profit the best of luck.
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hey man, I appreciate the help, I am just telling you how I get there, and it isn't by thinking too much. And I never would have got there in just USD/JPY.

My ego was shattered long ago by women so I really don't care who is right or who is wrong.

Once you get free from them, there really is no wrong or right.

But still, whenever I get around one the first thing out of my mouth is, "Sorry, I'm wrong."
 
Quote from oldtime:

hey man, I appreciate the help, I am just telling you how I get there, and it isn't by thinking too much. And I never would have got there in just USD/JPY.

My ego was shattered long ago by women so I really don't care who is right or who is wrong.

Once you get free from them, there really is no wrong or right.

But still, whenever I get around one the first thing out of my mouth is, "Sorry, I'm wrong."
More...

Yeah, I reworded my post above before you responded but after you must have clicked "quote".

Was having a frustrating day (not trading related) and read too much into your response. Plus I had just finished reading about 3 threads here on ET where the posters were completely full of themselves..

Anyhoo.. no worries.
 
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