Actually thehangingman is quite levelheaded unlike the more animated BS if you read his other posts. Looking forward to reading more posts from guys like him.
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Trading for Friday
- Thread starter thehangingman
- Start date
I believe if the SPX closes over 1430, then the bull market will continue. If it closes below 1414, then we might have a trend reversal. Below 1399, definate trend reversal.
Large money concern stops are probably set right around 54 dollars in the oil market. No signs from OPEC that an emergency meeting will be held.
Motorola warning will probably drive the NDX down to resistance right around 1730.
The NDX price channel does appear to be hitting lower highs and lower lows. Its had two round trips through the channel since November.
In sum, the NDX needs to get above 1821 and the SPX over 1430 for their to be upside. If the NDX gets below 1731, even intraday, then I believe the channel will move further lower.
The TNX is now the key to the markets. If it gets to 5, then we are going to see a situation similiar to May 2006. The employment report and two fed speeches will be the key to today's trading.
The more serious problem with the NDX is the degrading price channel. There are stops set somewhere along the way on that channel that will be hit if it degrades further.
The employment report will have to demonstrate a greater amount of unemployment. If the employment report comes in demonstrating a lesser degree of unemployment, then the TNX will rise.
Combine the TNX with the MOT warning and the NDX will hit a lower low. The key to the NDX is that it does not move lower then 1731. If it does, then there will be additional channel degradation in the coming days.
The foreign markets are in the red right now which will place pressure on those using margin.
Another factor I am looking at is the NYSE margin figures. The Dec 2006 figures are not out yet. The November 2005 margin amount was 219k where as the November 2006 figures were 270k for an increase of 24%. If the December 2006 margin figures demonstrate a +30%, then that I believe will lend further volatility to the SPX.
Large money concern stops are probably set right around 54 dollars in the oil market. No signs from OPEC that an emergency meeting will be held.
Motorola warning will probably drive the NDX down to resistance right around 1730.
The NDX price channel does appear to be hitting lower highs and lower lows. Its had two round trips through the channel since November.
In sum, the NDX needs to get above 1821 and the SPX over 1430 for their to be upside. If the NDX gets below 1731, even intraday, then I believe the channel will move further lower.
The TNX is now the key to the markets. If it gets to 5, then we are going to see a situation similiar to May 2006. The employment report and two fed speeches will be the key to today's trading.
The more serious problem with the NDX is the degrading price channel. There are stops set somewhere along the way on that channel that will be hit if it degrades further.
The employment report will have to demonstrate a greater amount of unemployment. If the employment report comes in demonstrating a lesser degree of unemployment, then the TNX will rise.
Combine the TNX with the MOT warning and the NDX will hit a lower low. The key to the NDX is that it does not move lower then 1731. If it does, then there will be additional channel degradation in the coming days.
The foreign markets are in the red right now which will place pressure on those using margin.
Another factor I am looking at is the NYSE margin figures. The Dec 2006 figures are not out yet. The November 2005 margin amount was 219k where as the November 2006 figures were 270k for an increase of 24%. If the December 2006 margin figures demonstrate a +30%, then that I believe will lend further volatility to the SPX.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p30393667399
Here is the only thing fueling the markets. The bottom was at 4.40 in late November. When it started rising, notice how the NDX started having trouble.
Today is where it is decided whether the NDX channel goes lower or higher. The jobs report will push the TNX above or below the 50 day ema. The TNX needs to close below the 50 day ema to change the channel.
Notice how the TNX closed just above the 50 day EMA on Weds as if the bond market is waiting for today to see what happens.
Here is the only thing fueling the markets. The bottom was at 4.40 in late November. When it started rising, notice how the NDX started having trouble.
Today is where it is decided whether the NDX channel goes lower or higher. The jobs report will push the TNX above or below the 50 day ema. The TNX needs to close below the 50 day ema to change the channel.
Notice how the TNX closed just above the 50 day EMA on Weds as if the bond market is waiting for today to see what happens.
Employment report came out too strong. The TNX is heading for 5 and the Nasdaq will now tank.
My prediction is that the TNX will continue up the channel and this will be just like May. However, the DOW might be saved because of low oil, but the Naz is going to tank. The S&P will be so-so, but wont tank.
My prediction is that the TNX will continue up the channel and this will be just like May. However, the DOW might be saved because of low oil, but the Naz is going to tank. The S&P will be so-so, but wont tank.
Quote from thehangingman:
Employment report came out too strong. The TNX is heading for 5 and the Nasdaq will now tank.
My prediction is that the TNX will continue up the channel and this will be just like May. However, the DOW might be saved because of low oil, but the Naz is going to tank. The S&P will be so-so, but wont tank.
For God Sake, stop it with the oil up-stocks down correlation. IT DOESN'T EXIST. Unless you are a CNBC or Bloomberg reporter. Stocks did nothing but go up from 2003-2006. And oil did nothing but break records...
I respect everyone's opinion, but you must consider inflation, money supply and many other factors when looking at the market's appreciation.
When you weigh in these other factors, the overall market really hasnt appreciated at all.
In the last 3 years, housing costs have doubled. Cost of food has doubled. Gas has doubled. The market is up 40%.
When you weigh in these other factors, the overall market really hasnt appreciated at all.
In the last 3 years, housing costs have doubled. Cost of food has doubled. Gas has doubled. The market is up 40%.
Quote from thehangingman:
I respect everyone's opinion, but you must consider inflation, money supply and many other factors when looking at the market's appreciation.
When you weigh in these other factors, the overall market really hasnt appreciated at all.
In the last 3 years, housing costs have doubled. Cost of food has doubled. Gas has doubled. The market is up 40%.
I agree, everything has nearly doubled.
I usually do the food shopping and let me tell you how expensive things have got in the last 18 months.... 2 weeks ago I saw a pint of strawberries for $6.99!!!!!! All prices have gone through the roof. Thats why when houses pullback 10-20% no one should be complaining after the 100% jump in 4 years.