Trading for Amerrica

[murrica]

Ok, here's a new thread so I can express my own views and interpretations on the markets.

I'll put a simple disclaimer here, now, for all to read. This disclaimer applies to all of my posts in this thread. The info that I provide in this thread will consist merely of my interpretations. I am not giving anyone trading advice, nor I am advising you to use my commentary, charts, or long/short biases for any of your trading decisions. All trading decisions that you make are 100% your own responsibility. I am not responsible for any of your decisions or losses.

The purpose of this thread is for me to document my ideas over time.

Here's a simple chart that is a composite of the resistance analysis of ES emini and MDY etf. The first is from barchart.com and second is from yahoo finance (I apologize for cutting of these respective providers' URL in the chart).

In my view, these two vehicles are sitting at a potential resistance area at this time. Given the nature of the current uptrend, consider this a lower probability play to attempt to short at this level. If this level does not work, I will be watching for the upper band as a last resort area to attempt to catch a top.

There is certainly a good amount of space between 1505 and 1520 on ES if the 1505 area fails to hold. It shows all green. Blindly shorting could be well-argued as being very hazardous to your sanity and risk capital.

I do not consider this a prime steak pick. Rather, it is more like a possibly chewy piece of cow that could get pissed at me and thrust upward at any time. It would not stop me from trying to consume and enjoy, however (at least based on how I have traded in the past). This inclination is clearly indicative of my short bias (stated in another thread), and my decision to stay in cash at this time is based on my past experience of burning myself because of a bias.

Accordingly, I am not placing any live trades based on these observations at this time, thus this post is merely a way for me to document this idea and track the outcome.

All constructive commentary is welcomed.

 

[murrica]

Ok, looks like resistance did in fact finally hold. The observation I have made over the years is that finding the actual resistance is often a cat and mouse game. You look on multiple instruments, multiple time frames, and have to find what appears to be the 'cleanest' type of support/resistance, perhaps the most obvious, or a confluence of support/resistance.

In my view, going long at this level, given that resistance held, is a lower probability play at this point. If I were bullish at this level, which I am not, I'd be waiting for either a break of resistance above to confirm continuation, or a nice move downward to a solid support level.

 

[murrica]

Some support in the intraday $SPX as provided by Yahoo Finance. This gives us a clear indication of where it is likely best *not* to go short (e.g. at this as of yet unbroken intraday support line).

I am still maintaining my swing trade short view (unless resistance broken above), but obviously we have support levels with which to deal.

My views/strategies here are very overly simplistic. Buy at support or a break of resistance or a retest of a upside breakout. Sell at the opposite of these. It doesn't always work and often Mr. Market has other ideas when too many 'enemies' try to gather around this battle plan. Part of my goal is to review my real-time results for the simple stuff (free to all to observe), which I might use later on as a part of developing discretionary / automated / combo systems.

On a side note, I've noticed that oftentimes a coil has been wound up so cleanly and tightly that the impending explosion seemed to have been unstoppable. I love these setups and will try to post when one comes along.

Sorry for the delay in this post, I'm not exactly working in real-time here.

 

[murrica]

Looks like we are on pace for the biggest down day for the Russell 2000 in quite some time. It's not a guarantee of anything, of course. Maybe the market just needed a day to rest

Even a broken clock is right 2x per day, at least for those wacky Amerrican clocks.

 

[murrica]

Possible further consolidation on NQ. The longer it stays in this range, the nicer the impending trend is likely to be.

 

[murrica]

Quote from murrica:

Possible further consolidation on NQ. The longer it stays in this range, the nicer the impending trend is likely to be.

Based on my supposition above, we should see a nice move to the upside, due to the upside breakout today on QQQ/NQ's consolidation that had been occurring all year long.

However, I am still eyeing resistance on $SPX at the upper trend line here, which should correspond to the 1520 or so range on ES documented earlier.

Taking into account the valuable input of others about trading what you see and not fighting the trend, at this time, I will only be watching the price action at these levels to test some theories. The posts/charts/commentary are simply to document my ideas and observations. No live trades will be placed until announced otherwise.

 

[murrica]

Russell 2000 mini -- horizontal support around 910. Support at lower line currently puts us at 905, channel resistance 920+.

Trading plan:

- Wait and watch, first and foremost.

- Watch ES / $SPX per previous post.

- Watch to see if $NDX can stay sufficiently below 3000 to maintain the longer term bear head and shoulders pattern.

Related to $NDX / QQQ and patterns: Someone commented in another thread about how these H&S patterns have been failing more often in recent years. One interesting study would be to track pattern viability over time, which in and of itself could provide some valuable insights relative to systems development.

 

[murrica]

My extremely scientific analysis says that this looks "toppy as a mofo".

Nobody said $SPX and ES *have to* touch the top channel line before a swing reversal begins.

At the least, I would expect some kind of downside here. Stop on the Russell 2000 mini would be above the upper line of the rising wedge pattern in the chart included in this post.

I am not responsible for your losses. Anything can happen, and my analysis might be dead wrong, with an immeasurable number of unforeseen outcomes detrimental to a short bias here.

Good Luck / Manage Your Risk / Be Responsible.

 

[murrica]

It's a cute lil' wedgie. Maybe I should look again at or near the open..

 

[murrica]

1) My interpretation of a bearish rising wedge on the Russel 2000 mini futures daily candlestick chart (two posts back) was incorrect. I noticed someone in another thread say that they ignore the O and C of an OHLC/candlestick bar, and my chart did not ignore them. This merits further study.

2) The triangle (one post back, also in the above picture) played out fairly textbook. There was a break to the upside, re-test of the breakout level 911.0, then a retrace followed by upside break again, then a retest of 911.5 before proceeding upward. What this tells me is that the simple things still work, as long as one trades based on observation and not bias.

Here's an interesting pair of charts. $SPX is touching upper resistance, but ES is still below it slightly. ES resistance is currently around 1525. I am interested to see how these two vehicles play out.

I enjoy reading posts from other participants of Elite Trader in other threads, as they give me different perspectives and insights. It seems I am not alone in my use of trendlines. However, my interpretations seem to be a bit primitive in comparison to others, and it is my goal to iteratively refine my technique in hopes of more consistently and correctly identifying trading opportunities.