trading for a living

T

toybits

Plan for the day:

index analysis: Indices look strong and may break recent highs, might do a QQQ if this happens.

position: fully positioned at the moment with WTR and LCC, both MA plays, no new positions tonight

plan:
1. MA half stop - if positions break yesterday's low (entry day) or a big distribution day on the index happens
2. Today is just Entry + 1, I will allow 1 doji tonight if ever it happens. Max I will allow are 2 dojis
 
Plan for the day:

index analysis: Indices still within a range, although IBD notes that the SP500 had its 3rd distribution day since July 11. The Fed will probably be the day that the indices make an upmove or downmove from here. At the moment though, this is still an uptrend and I would only question this if the 20ma is broken

position:
1. WTR - makes a doji day on volume that is more than last Friday's uptick. This is bad, if tonight's action results in a doji/downtick I would look to sell half. 10ma at around 33.40, gives me room to move up the stop here.
2. LCC - small uptick on decreasing volume. The past 3 days have been upticks on volume that has been decreasing, but are still above average. 10ma at 18.50, gives me room to move up the stop


plan:
1. Move stops up slightly to reduce risk
 
Plan for the day:

index analysis: Indices still within a range, with the Nasdaq testing highs but backing off at the close. Doji's past two days which signal indecision ahead of the Fed tonight. Uptrend still intact

position:
1. WTR - downtick day, as planned will decrease position to half size at the market open. Remaining will have the 10ma as a stop. Earnings will be released next week 8/7
2. LCC - downtick day, but this is stronger than WTR as it's occurring after three uptick days. Chart resistance at 19.50, and I'm hoping for a break here

plan:
1. move up stop on lcc, leave wtr as is
2. cut wtr position in half in the first 30 minutes
3. no new positions tonight, wait for market reaction to Fed and the market close after
 
Plan for the day:

index analysis: Bad price action on the indices and with volume at that. Look to cut weak positions and only put in new ones if indices test highs.


position:
1. WTR - was able to cut half at the open, and looking to cut the remaining at tonight's open as well. This is the 3rd day after the entry with no price progress, thus triggering a time stop. It's worth noting as well that last night's downtick volume was also bigger than the past 3 days

2. LCC - holding up at the moment, but I would cut half positions if indices break the 20ma support. May be able to slightly increase the trailing stop

plan:
1. cut remaining WTR position
2. watch the 20ma on the indices, look to cut half of LCC if the indices close below it.
 
Plan for the day:

index analysis: Big upmove with volume on all indices. Uptrend very much intact


position:
closed both positions, hesitated a bit on WTR which caused me an entry on EDU. LCC was closed as price action was bad on a strong upmove day


plan:
1. buy FLT and ODFL on the first 30 minutes
2. entry order on NFLX
 
Plan for the day:

index analysis: indices at new highs

position:
opened ODFL but will close today unless the Thursday highs are broken early (similar to WTR last week). Didn't chase FLT as it gapped up on earnings


plan:
1. entry orders placed for WGO and OSTK, watching WAL
 
Plan for the day:

index analysis: pausing on low volume

position:
Breakeven stop placed for WGO, use the 10ma to cut half if it pauses at this stage

plan:
1. can put one additional position - orders in place for ODFL and OSTK, watching WAL
2. can put a new position if half of WGO has been tp'd
 
August 08,2013

index analysis: The indices fell for the second straight day and crossed the 20ma at their intraday lows. They managed to close above this MA, but there's weakness in the uptrend at this stage. Not a time to be aggressive!

position: square at the moment, but will allow myself one position (5% risk)

watchlist: (entry / stop loss / take profit)

bbby - 78.35 / 77.35 / 81.35
nke - 66.90 / 66.25 / 68.90
cog - 78.15 / 77.15 / 82.15
afop - 35.40 / 34.40 / 39.40
ahs - 16.28 / 15.98 / 17.18

Will only take the first one that gets triggered. I may take a second position only if the indices are making a strong move for the day and the first position has a breakeven stop established or if I get greedy and ignore my plan...

historical returns: 0% since August 8, 2013. NAV is 1.00. Here we go!
 
August 09,2013

index analysis: The indices make a pause day (dow) or a small uptick (spx, comp). This removes some of the bearishness and makes the overall pattern a little more sideways. My main indicator here of the uptrend being intact is if prices do not close decisively below the 20MA and chart supports - approximately 1678 spx, 15400 dow, too lazy to get the exact points but it's approximately there.

position: square at the moment, but as long as we're hovering here and not going below the aforementioned index supports, I will put in 1 position (5% gain on the tp level)

watchlist: (entry / stop loss / take profit)

bbby - 78.35 / 77.35 / 81.35
nke - 66.90 / 66.25 / 68.90
cog - 78.15 / 77.15 / 82.15
afop - 35.40 / 34.40 / 39.40
ahs - 16.28 / 15.98 / 17.18
eat - 44.00 / 43.40 / 46.00
cab - 72 / 71 / 76

I'm seeing tight flag formations on some base breakouts on good earnings. Examples would be EAT on the list above and LKQ. I'm just waiting for the 10ma to come nearer and provide support


historical returns: 0% since August 8, 2013. NAV is 1.00.
 
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