Wouldn't you just love to be there in 10 years time to watch TDMA look over his old ET posts.
Your post from 16years ago is enlightening.
"prices are probably not random, IMHO.
if a good discretionary trader was to play stone-paper-scissors with an average trader...he would probably win despite the fact the result should be random...
to say that because a series of closing prices fails the runs test that price movement is random is stretching the test too far...
how about testing the range of daily prices? the time of day of the high/low? the size of gaps, the location of the high/low, the location of intraday pivot points, the day of the week of highs etc etc etc...
i don't think we can prove randomness (i'm no mathematician so laugh if you want) only that trading based on some types of information is more random than trading on other types of information.
Q1
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Actually I already know how I will look back at the posts, I have no narrative, and have found a way to break down anyone who does have a narrative, almost always used for their gain. This is the crossover point for society where those with more, let's call it honorable, agendas flex their muscles against those with more self-serving agendas, which is what happens when everyone over in-debts themselves, no margin of error.
It turns out the car hire company just tried to force through a €1,000 blocking payment without consent, they kept authorising these odd amounts like they were using my card as their personal cash flow. Then the in-lieu coercion of "but you're not insured" comes and I politely point out perhaps they should tell customers what the charges are when they ask and keep to the amounts agreed before, not after, the fact. So I'll take a trip back up to Northern Europe next week and drop it off, however I made sure I had my monies worth, I think I've put something like 7,000km on it these past weeks.
Having a narrative is fine, as long as you're the one with the best narrative, I just take the non-narrative approach, wait for those who have one to implode, and see where the dust settles, they could have just been honest about it up front. The only problem with that is I end up on the receiving end of the first shot, the party must go on, but I'm actually now very experienced at neutralising multiple narratives in parallel, good old Newton and the Third Law. I also notice I'm the only one who posted trade logs, even the newbies were quiet, just shows how far everyone is pulled in to the core of the normal distribution narrative. So much effort, so little return. Actually on that note, I finished the wine, need to go and buy some more, working holiday and all that.
I would like to say the same about how everyone will look back in ten years and realise they were pulled so far in they couldn't see daylight, in most cases they can plead ignorance because no solution was provided, but I've provided the solutions, some they can do themselves, some they need support with, even evidence to confirm they work. Alas non-accredited means doing it the hard way, I can be pulled in myself, almost was a couple of times, or stand outside and occasionally say, no, it really is better over here. Right, where's that wine.
