Trading Excellence
- Thread starter FXAnalyst
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U/CAD at 1.000 seems good for a bounce. It punched through 1.0040 level like a hot knife through butter so I didn't try and catch it. It should bounce up in wave 4 then down again is my best interpretation at the moment, watching 5 minute 10 day charts with a memory of the larger pictures, both hourly and daily.
Regarding the daily it seems that there is either a failed C up to about 0350 ideally and the pattern will resume down, or, the uptrend will continue and the USD/CAD is doing a sloppy Elliot Wave count, something that it's good at. Either way, a safe trade entry is looming for up if one uses tight stops that are quickly moved to safety.
Good work on EUR/AUD Galactisol.
When doing analysis on that one the pattern down shows conservatively complete although could extend more.
I'm not sure if the pictures attached will be of help or hinderance...
The 30 year chart shows a wedge and 10 year an ambiguous count which, if I see present, prompts me to take the most conservative interpretation.
I can't take credit for ever having done a 700 pip trade so please keep posting
.
When doing analysis on that one the pattern down shows conservatively complete although could extend more.
I'm not sure if the pictures attached will be of help or hinderance...
The 30 year chart shows a wedge and 10 year an ambiguous count which, if I see present, prompts me to take the most conservative interpretation.
I can't take credit for ever having done a 700 pip trade so please keep posting
.EUR/GBP finished a 12345 up on hourly charts and doing an ABC down. I think it it willl rise again from about 7850-55. Either the A down will take it to 7850 or the ABC down will be complete by then, not sure so will take the bounce anyway if at computer. And by then it should be clearer as to the pattern.
EUR/USD dropped further with trend at large, extending the pattern as suspected.
EUR/AUD approaches a critical bouncepoint at about 6250 area.
EUR/USD dropped further with trend at large, extending the pattern as suspected.
EUR/AUD approaches a critical bouncepoint at about 6250 area.
Stocks and Carry
Yesterday's numbers on housing and consumer credit were bad, but when put into context, not very different from what we've seen previously and could foresse as possible - the "catalyst".
So S&P bounced 200-day SMA and 20 month SMA, resistance. Stochastics are approaching oversold (on daily charts), after a confirmed slow stochastics bearish divergence set-up.
On the lookout for one or two more daily moves on the downside, was short since some days ago, only turned a profit yesterday albeit a small one. Any candle chart uncertain pattern will prompt my covering of short exposure to stocks.
Getting below 50-week SMA might prompt selling across the board (on technical, market overall sentiment issues). Still think we have some events around that could trigger a bear short-term slide (for some fundamental reasoning), though none of them represent new issues, just same as before.
For further pressure down would need a bigger one and frankly inflation ranks highest among others. Expect more from rice in the next days and weeks: aside all supply-demand concerns, we got Myanmar "blocking" aid entry into the country, and that should affect supply at such sensitive times, it will surely make a difference. Oil? Here we go again! Shouldn't expect more capacity from OPEC anytime soon, unless they start old tricks of pumping up production informally (but that would take time to show in numbers & reports). And commodities' indexes are...booming.
Big day for Europe on rate decisions. Don't expect them to affect stocks significantly, but regarding currencies, we're at an important point where any softening from ECB could prompt further bullish sentiment on the dollar, like a possible confluence of events. Expect ECB to maintain hawkish stance, though still open to surprises specially after Euro Area retail sales came out as a "bad surprise". BOE might continue cutting rates and might enable some more determination on cable or E/Gbp trending.
E/U pair is probably the most powerful generator of trends in Forex, cause it sort of ripples across various other pairs. So any ECB surprise will surely spur big moves, maybe even just a change of tone in the statement, who knows? Have to wait and see.
In the US, Greenspan is speaking in NY today, should listen carefully for some good opinion integration into trading decision making process and who knows might give way to trends. Even if some think he shouldn't comment, he's a free man and we have to allign his comments with our trading strategy, not "condenm" it. Besides, imagine what we would lose from not having the opportunity to listen to his valuable views and insights.
Yesterday's numbers on housing and consumer credit were bad, but when put into context, not very different from what we've seen previously and could foresse as possible - the "catalyst".
So S&P bounced 200-day SMA and 20 month SMA, resistance. Stochastics are approaching oversold (on daily charts), after a confirmed slow stochastics bearish divergence set-up.
On the lookout for one or two more daily moves on the downside, was short since some days ago, only turned a profit yesterday albeit a small one. Any candle chart uncertain pattern will prompt my covering of short exposure to stocks.
Getting below 50-week SMA might prompt selling across the board (on technical, market overall sentiment issues). Still think we have some events around that could trigger a bear short-term slide (for some fundamental reasoning), though none of them represent new issues, just same as before.
For further pressure down would need a bigger one and frankly inflation ranks highest among others. Expect more from rice in the next days and weeks: aside all supply-demand concerns, we got Myanmar "blocking" aid entry into the country, and that should affect supply at such sensitive times, it will surely make a difference. Oil? Here we go again! Shouldn't expect more capacity from OPEC anytime soon, unless they start old tricks of pumping up production informally (but that would take time to show in numbers & reports). And commodities' indexes are...booming.
Big day for Europe on rate decisions. Don't expect them to affect stocks significantly, but regarding currencies, we're at an important point where any softening from ECB could prompt further bullish sentiment on the dollar, like a possible confluence of events. Expect ECB to maintain hawkish stance, though still open to surprises specially after Euro Area retail sales came out as a "bad surprise". BOE might continue cutting rates and might enable some more determination on cable or E/Gbp trending.
E/U pair is probably the most powerful generator of trends in Forex, cause it sort of ripples across various other pairs. So any ECB surprise will surely spur big moves, maybe even just a change of tone in the statement, who knows? Have to wait and see.
In the US, Greenspan is speaking in NY today, should listen carefully for some good opinion integration into trading decision making process and who knows might give way to trends. Even if some think he shouldn't comment, he's a free man and we have to allign his comments with our trading strategy, not "condenm" it. Besides, imagine what we would lose from not having the opportunity to listen to his valuable views and insights.
Forex
Carry
In all pairs that relate to this startegy and since stocks are pretty uncertain for the momment, don't really expect to any big opportunity for the time being. On the search for small profit trades.
U/Cad
Concur with your opinion. Weekly charts range trading opportunities could arise at any point. But would expect to capture small movements only.
E/U
Clearly in a correction, next support would probably come from weekly charts around 20 week SMA, if it's crossed we might get some more short side action, but it is hard to envision any sound foundation for the start of this pair's bearish slide, unless ECB changes stance (cause that would require commodities to come down). If it doesn't would probabçy hev to wait until US economy "picks up".
Currently have no position in this pair, exited on Tuesday my long one with a 50 pip net profit.think I'll wait for the end of the day to start thinking about entering this market, if it can convincingly find support on the weekly charts.
Carry
In all pairs that relate to this startegy and since stocks are pretty uncertain for the momment, don't really expect to any big opportunity for the time being. On the search for small profit trades.
U/Cad
Concur with your opinion. Weekly charts range trading opportunities could arise at any point. But would expect to capture small movements only.
E/U
Clearly in a correction, next support would probably come from weekly charts around 20 week SMA, if it's crossed we might get some more short side action, but it is hard to envision any sound foundation for the start of this pair's bearish slide, unless ECB changes stance (cause that would require commodities to come down). If it doesn't would probabçy hev to wait until US economy "picks up".
Currently have no position in this pair, exited on Tuesday my long one with a 50 pip net profit.think I'll wait for the end of the day to start thinking about entering this market, if it can convincingly find support on the weekly charts.
These performed basically as expected although the EUR/GBP dropped lower than originally proposed before resuming higher hights as expected.
USD/CAD seems to be finishing a 5 wave set down seen on hourly charts, bouncepoint at about 0025 likely if it gets there. News was CAD bullish and oil priced at 125.00 is... affecting! :eek:
Weekly Preview
Stocks & Carry
Take a look at GB's PPI reading: above 7%, annualized. At this pace and intensity, sooner or later it will "bite".
Earnings are not as bad as was thinking, showing two things, at least for the Q under scrutiny, at present:
1- Both financial and housing issues don't seem to be spreading forcefully into other sectors.
2- It's starting to look like a mild "one", more like a slowdown with some probability of a short period of contraction (assuming that once we see consumer strength fading, most commodities will follow suit based on demand)
What should we make of "jobs" numbers? A lot of opinions go in favor of taking some heat off of this area of the economy, since by historical standards, readings don't seem that bad. Will try to explain what I got in mind about this, though it's not easy (because some numbers - don't have them),at least for me: the key to understanding why jobs strength remained amid housing slump is the retirement of "babyboomers". In (most) developed countries demographic pyramids are thin at the basis and wide on top. Now jumping to conclusion: imagine that for every year the amount of working age population trims, so what we get is the need of less jobs added to maintain the same percentage. To me, this is one of the reasons why we would get worried about numbers of jobs added (when compared with historical standards) and surprised at the level of unemployment. Now the economics of jobs and demographics: if the net number of working age population (new entrants in working age range - number of citizens that go over the working age range) in one year is negative, what this would mean is that, if all else stayed the same, it would actually by itself bring down the unemployment rate (we shoud not forget that it assummes the number of jobs or working positions in the economy are maintained). As a speculator don't feel that there is a need to delve into it further, because just need to mind this factor and use other alternative indicators to complement fundamental analysis. This was something that came to mind during weekend night out...that would like to share.
OPEC, one member, at least voiced concerns about cartel responsibility: this should pave way for the start of diminishing speculative belief that the situation might be getting out of control. OPEC has the power and it seems now...the sense of community to not let things derail. As a trader, I cherish it!
This week got some nice pieces of reports coming out not a particularly busy one on "big" numbers, but still portending enticing action:
For the US we'll have retail sales, housing starts & permits, ABC & Michigan consumer sentiment, Net Tic, and two that though not very significant financially are handy for economic forecasting, capacity utilization (specially at times when inflation is a worry) and business inventories (that complements former one).
Euro Area we got a lot coming from Italy and France, with likes of CPI industrial production (also in the US), trade balance & current account and French NFP, also German CPI.
GBP, got some readings coming out with a bias on inflation, from PPI, CPI, RPI to trade balance and something on jobs too.
From Switzerland got consumer sentiment and retail sales.
For Canada have auto sales and housing price index.
Japan with GDP, trade balance, industrial output, some on consumer sentiment and corporate goods price index.
Australia comin with business & consumer confidence.
Technical
Besides all past analysis we got the bearish weekly slow stochastics cross-over for the S&P (Can't believe how could've missed that one in the past week). Now this is a major one, to follow-up upon on the next weeks. I was short but got out with about an 8 or 9 point profit since daily is approaching oversold (slow stochastics) and waiting for another oportunity to get in. In terms of the "yin-yang" of markets still on the look out for possible recovery, not feeling that much strength on the bear side as expected, but still rather go with trend ("The trend is your friend, expept at the end when it bends"
).
U/chf
Still have this position but must say, to my temporary relief, that this position has seen worse days. Thinking of making it longer term based mostly on that weekly S&P cross-over.
Anyway gotta go for now, pick it up later for the rest of Forex trades & opportunities...
Stocks & Carry
Take a look at GB's PPI reading: above 7%, annualized. At this pace and intensity, sooner or later it will "bite".
Earnings are not as bad as was thinking, showing two things, at least for the Q under scrutiny, at present:
1- Both financial and housing issues don't seem to be spreading forcefully into other sectors.
2- It's starting to look like a mild "one", more like a slowdown with some probability of a short period of contraction (assuming that once we see consumer strength fading, most commodities will follow suit based on demand)
What should we make of "jobs" numbers? A lot of opinions go in favor of taking some heat off of this area of the economy, since by historical standards, readings don't seem that bad. Will try to explain what I got in mind about this, though it's not easy (because some numbers - don't have them),at least for me: the key to understanding why jobs strength remained amid housing slump is the retirement of "babyboomers". In (most) developed countries demographic pyramids are thin at the basis and wide on top. Now jumping to conclusion: imagine that for every year the amount of working age population trims, so what we get is the need of less jobs added to maintain the same percentage. To me, this is one of the reasons why we would get worried about numbers of jobs added (when compared with historical standards) and surprised at the level of unemployment. Now the economics of jobs and demographics: if the net number of working age population (new entrants in working age range - number of citizens that go over the working age range) in one year is negative, what this would mean is that, if all else stayed the same, it would actually by itself bring down the unemployment rate (we shoud not forget that it assummes the number of jobs or working positions in the economy are maintained). As a speculator don't feel that there is a need to delve into it further, because just need to mind this factor and use other alternative indicators to complement fundamental analysis. This was something that came to mind during weekend night out...that would like to share.
OPEC, one member, at least voiced concerns about cartel responsibility: this should pave way for the start of diminishing speculative belief that the situation might be getting out of control. OPEC has the power and it seems now...the sense of community to not let things derail. As a trader, I cherish it!
This week got some nice pieces of reports coming out not a particularly busy one on "big" numbers, but still portending enticing action:
For the US we'll have retail sales, housing starts & permits, ABC & Michigan consumer sentiment, Net Tic, and two that though not very significant financially are handy for economic forecasting, capacity utilization (specially at times when inflation is a worry) and business inventories (that complements former one).
Euro Area we got a lot coming from Italy and France, with likes of CPI industrial production (also in the US), trade balance & current account and French NFP, also German CPI.
GBP, got some readings coming out with a bias on inflation, from PPI, CPI, RPI to trade balance and something on jobs too.
From Switzerland got consumer sentiment and retail sales.
For Canada have auto sales and housing price index.
Japan with GDP, trade balance, industrial output, some on consumer sentiment and corporate goods price index.
Australia comin with business & consumer confidence.
Technical
Besides all past analysis we got the bearish weekly slow stochastics cross-over for the S&P (Can't believe how could've missed that one in the past week). Now this is a major one, to follow-up upon on the next weeks. I was short but got out with about an 8 or 9 point profit since daily is approaching oversold (slow stochastics) and waiting for another oportunity to get in. In terms of the "yin-yang" of markets still on the look out for possible recovery, not feeling that much strength on the bear side as expected, but still rather go with trend ("The trend is your friend, expept at the end when it bends"
). U/chf
Still have this position but must say, to my temporary relief, that this position has seen worse days. Thinking of making it longer term based mostly on that weekly S&P cross-over.
Anyway gotta go for now, pick it up later for the rest of Forex trades & opportunities...
I was away from keyboard for the EUR/CAD buying opportunity of 5400 however it bounced there as expected and would have yeilded a good 75-100 pips for the savy trader who took the buy suggestion.
Ideally, one could have sold it down from the previously mentioned price then exited near bottom and waited for 5400. Instead I sold the USD/CAD and took 42 pips.
The EUR/AUD yeilds pips as well as it heads to its bouncepoint of 6600. Depending on when it gets there it could bounce slightly there and then go higher to as high as 6650 area before larger bounce down. One will have to monitor the situation as proposed bouncepoints loom closer.