Trading Excellence

Canadian Dollar Erases Gains as Export Commodity Prices Decline

By Haris Anwar

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's dollar erased gains against its U.S. counterpart as the prices of some of the nation's commodity exports slid.

Crude oil fell about 1 percent after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. inventories rose more than estimated last week. Commodities account for about half of Canada's exports.

The Canadian dollar traded at 99.18 cents per U.S. dollar at 11:18 a.m. in Toronto, from 99.21 cents yesterday. Earlier, it touched 98.37 cents, the highest since March 7.
 
AUD/U and NZD/U news later today...

N.Z. House Sales Fall, Prices Drop to 12-Month Low (Update3)

By Tracy Withers

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand house sales slumped and prices fell to a 12-month low in February, adding to signs record-high interest rates are cooling the property market and will slow economic growth.

House sales dropped 32 percent to 6,356 homes from 9,357 a year earlier, according to a report today from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Inc. e-mailed to Bloomberg News. The median house price dropped to NZ$337,500 ($271,000) from NZ$340,000 in January.

Reserve Bank Governor of New Zealand Alan Bollard kept the benchmark interest rate at 8.25 percent last week, saying a ``sharp slowdown'' in the housing market was spilling over into consumer spending. The Treasury department this week said the property market was cooling sooner than expected, which will curb economic growth.

``The slowdown in the housing market will weigh on household spending and residential construction, which have already shown evidence of weakening,'' said Shamubeel Eaqub, economist at Goldman Sachs JBWere Ltd. in Auckland. ``The economy is rapidly losing momentum.''

New Zealand's dollar bought 80.27 U.S. cents at 5 p.m. in Wellington from 80.31 cents immediately before the report was released.

Bollard last week said interest rates would have to remain high for a ``significant time yet.'' Still, seven of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect a rate cut this year.

Annual Price Change

Eaqub expects a cut in borrowing costs before June 30, assuming economic growth slows to 1.1 percent in 2008. The central bank expects 2 percent growth this year.

The median house price rose just 0.7 percent from a year earlier, the slowest pace since prices were unchanged in the 12 months ended January 2002, the institute said.

Last week, the central bank forecast prices will fall 3.9 percent in the year ending Sept. 30, the first decline in prices since 2000.

``If prices tip into reverse, that will have huge economic implications,'' Murray Cleland, national president of the Real Estate Institute, said in a statement. ``The cost to the average New Zealander during 2008 could be considerable.''

The median time it took to sell a house soared to 50 days from 32 days a year earlier, and 49 days in January, the institute said.
 
An excerpt from a "Trade the News service" pertaining to the News scheduled later today...

2. Wednesday, March 12th, 2008 (5:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 5:45 p.m. we will have New Zealand Retail Sales coming out. I think a "regular" retail sales (NOT core) is more in focus. It is expected to come out at 0.3% versus 0.1% last month. I believe a trigger of 0.7 should be sufficient on this. If it comes out at 1% or higher, I would buy NZD/USD; If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, I would sell NZD/USD, looking for 40 pips of a price action.

3. Wednesday, March 12th, 2008 (8:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 8:30 p.m. we will have Australian Employment Change coming out. It is expected to come out at 15K, like every other month - they always expect 15 K Actually it is great because it gives great trading opportunities. I will use 20K trigger on this. If it comes out at 35 K or higher, I would buy AUD/USD. If it comes out at -5K or more negative, I would sell AUD/USD. If my trigger is hit, expect about 50 pips price action. Watch out for an unemployment rate. It is expected to come out at 4.2%. A 0.2 deviation is a good enough to move the market well. If it is conflicting with the employment change, I would stay away (or get out if you are already in trade using the SNW). Ideally, with a positive deviation on employment change you want to see a negative deviation on the unemployment rate, OR with a negative deviation on employment change you want to see a positive deviation on the unemployment rate - such combinations would help you to make even more pips.

That's all for tomorrow.

If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
 
AUD/U news, employment number came out over 36K, expected was 15K and the pair price jumped 40 pips in minutes. Elliot Wave Pattern showed this move in advance and I was in over 3 hours ago re-buying up... out now as target was met. Will consider buy after retracement from 9890 price current although it may go up a bit before retracement. Then with trend the target is above 9450 ideally but as trend runs out of inertia trailing stop makes sense as wave pattern up could stall. Buying at retracement bottoms and exiting at peaks has been good on this pair this week thanks to Elliot Wave patterns.:)
 
USD/CAD I'm unclear on immediate pattern of after higher than expected rise however the character of that pair after watching it for a couple of years to note E.W. patterns is a bit more lawless than other pairs. The larger pattern seen on 1hr charts still shows probable downward bias but havn't had time to figure a sell point for swing down from the spike of above 9930 today.

I'll have to do some more digging or at least read previous analysis... lol. The 1 day candles over 10 years show ambiguos ABC up either finished or to expand higher. Still I favour downtrending but need to watch closely for contrary signs.
 
Quote from FXAnalyst:

CAD/JPY may be a good buy at just above 103.50 using a small stop. Target 104.50 conservatively.

G/J was a good bet at 206.50 but I see that I just missed that. I lean toward this pair descending more today after bounce even though it appears to have done an ABC down from 208.00 because larger pattern indicates that instead of ABC down it could be 123 of a larger 5 wave set. Either way a buy up will catch either a bounce up or new hights. Keeping ones stops a 0 or positive is key to not missing a good swing. I'll trade this one eithe way today at what i suspect are good bouncepoints, using small stop and taking some off the table after a few pips possible, leaving the rest for large speculative gains.
More...

400 pips lower on G/J its clearly doing a 12345 wave set down from 208.00 and doesn't look finished. Was stopped out 4 times catching bounces on the way down today, once at 0 and 3 times with small stops of less than 20 however gains made better than losses on G/J as retracements are often 50-100 pips. Catching bounce up presently from below 204.00 but expect it to drop later to 203.50 area at least. Ideal target for sell down from should be 205ish depending on how the Elliot Waves transpire if it in fact reaches those hights before further descent.
 
AUD/U has done an A of ABC down to 9330 almost complete, that or a 1 of a 12345 down but I think it will only ABC down before another rise. "A" down to about where it just hit at 9330 or a bit lower then up for B for at least 40-50 pips then down for C to maybe 9300. I missed the bounce due to watching the U/J and am trading that up from the 100.00 mark target 100.98 for now with some profit off table momentarily at over 100.20 and fingers crossed that the downtrend will take a big break for higher levels now.
 
CHF/JPY appears to have hit a bouncepoint at 98.95 for those who like slower movers... but after a bounce it appears like it will want to double bottom or drop a bit lower, bounce may be 20-30 pips. Other U/J crosses show that they are closing in on large bouncepoint soon but the U/J is droppping once again to 100.00 so the reversal is not quite arrived across the board for the crosses.
 
The dollar fell to the weakest since 1995 against the yen and a record low versus the euro after a Carlyle Group fund failed to agree to reschedule overdue debt, triggering concern at more forced asset sales and losses. - Bloomberg
 
USD/CAD has confirmed a donward patter although bouncing up off 9800 now. reselling from a higher point with downtrend makes the most sense, possibly from as low as 9830 depending on ABC up pattern as seen on minute charts, stop above 50, or wait to se if it regains near 9850. The target is 9725ish at this point and is expectd lower as downward pattern unfolds
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top