Trading EUR/USD Daily Hi & Lo

Cnbc

Perhaps the past week's stock market rally was only a mirage: Fund-flow data showed retail investors ran for the exits even as the major averages were gaining nearly 4 percent and staging their biggest surge in months.

Equity investors pulled nearly $12 billion out of mutual funds for the week ending July 7, nearly matching the entire month of May, when the Standard & Poor's 500 [ .SPX1077.96 +7.71 (+0.72%) ] fell 8.5 percent and dropped into correction territory off the April 23 high.

Though some mutual funds reflect institutional investor holdings, they are considered a strong barometer of retail investor behavior.

So with $11.6 billion leaving the market in one week, investment pros are suspect about the quality of the rally.

"This looks like a short-covering rally," says David Twibell, president of wealth management for Colorado Capital Bank in Denver. "You have a big up day, decent follow-through, but not much volume, not much conviction, and it's hard to find a catalyst for any of it."
 
Quote from ammo:

did u reverse at 73 or are u saying u r going short with a 15 point stop
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No position at present, will trade breakout of the posted range starting with £15 per point.
 
Current results:

-85 pips/-£127.5 @ £1.50 per pip

+355 pips/+£1,065 @ £3 per pip

-120 pips/-£120 @ £1 per pip

+277 pips/+£554 @ £2 per pip

-165 pips/-£165 @ £1 per pip

-117 pips/-£234 @ £2 per pip

-172 pips/-£688 @£4 per pip

-132 pips/-£1,056 @ £8 per pip

-220 pips/-£3,520 @ £16 per pip

+420 pips/+£13,440 @ £32 per pip

+487 pips/+£974 @ £2 per pip

-116 pips/-£232 @ £2 per pip

+215 pips/+£860 @ £4 per pip

-106 pips/-£212 @ £2 per pip

-128 pips/-£512 @ £4 per pip

+328 pips/+£656 @ £2 per pip

+15 pips/+£30 @ £2 per pip

-25 points/-£375 @ 15 per point (ES)

-28 points/-£840 @ £30 per point (ES)

+39.75/+£2,385 @ £60 per point (ES)

Win/Loss: 40/60

ROI: +59.4%
 
Hi,

In response to your earlier question: I tried backtesting your EUR/USD daily hi/low strategy but didn't use anything complicated to measure vol. Ended up being in the market 70% of the time and ruining the account is short order.

If you don't mind answering, what are you using as your vol filter and trade entry criteria? And how do you determine when to exit a profitable trade?

I wanted to perform a proper backtest and walk-forward analysis on this method but couldn't work out all the filters and criteria from your posts. I made some guesses but they didn't generate anything long term profitable. I happy to send you the trade analysis if you're interested.

Would you mind posting a summary post of the method and criteria? I'm sure you'll get a few backtests from various members of the forum with that info.

Thanks!

C
 
Hi,

I tried backtesting your EUR/USD daily hi/low strategy but didn't use anything complicated to measure vol. Ended up being in the market 70% of the time and ruining the account is short order.

If you don't mind answering, what are you using as your vol filter and trade entry criteria? And how do you determine when to exit a profitable trade?

I wanted to perform a proper backtest and walk-forward analysis on this method but couldn't work out all the filters and criteria from your posts. I made some guesses but they didn't generate anything long term profitable. I happy to send you the trade analysis if you're interested.

If you wouldn't mind posting a summary of your entry, exit criteria that would be helpful. I'm sure you'd get a few backtest results from other members of ET as well.

Cheers,
C
 
I look for times nearing end of a cycle during acc/dis periods. Then I choose a daily bar which is either narrower than average or look for a narrow range hammer, in both cases they have to happen near extreme levels of acc/dis periods. Enter after either Hi or Lo is touched, sell Lo & buy Hi. Targets are at least x2 initial range. Targets is a complex subject as you know & is very difficult to code due to the fact that market behavior is indeed random. We would like to think that it ain't, yet it is. With this strategy I monitor price behavior after a breakout & if not convincing I am looking to get reward x2 risk ie lost £2k get £4k on next breakout or if account in danger of a margin call or a wipeout, then settle for 1:1 to offset loss.

This method is not based on any sort of market wizardry, but on a positive expectation that price behavior is about to take a directional pull away, which way makes no difference. Daily extremes are better "protected" so can be banked on for reversals. The hardest part in trading is knowing when & perhaps not knowing but actually taking the profit, so it covers the losses & increases equity.

Hope this helps.










Quote from cedric:

Hi,

In response to your earlier question: I tried backtesting your EUR/USD daily hi/low strategy but didn't use anything complicated to measure vol. Ended up being in the market 70% of the time and ruining the account is short order.

If you don't mind answering, what are you using as your vol filter and trade entry criteria? And how do you determine when to exit a profitable trade?

I wanted to perform a proper backtest and walk-forward analysis on this method but couldn't work out all the filters and criteria from your posts. I made some guesses but they didn't generate anything long term profitable. I happy to send you the trade analysis if you're interested.

Would you mind posting a summary post of the method and criteria? I'm sure you'll get a few backtests from various members of the forum with that info.

Thanks!

C
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