Trading ES

Quote from OldTrader:

First let me say that I noted that you said "suggestions were not the purpose of this thread". Yet you ask about others results as if others are using the same method. Because let's face it...there IS a method right now that is working fine. It just isn't your method, or perhaps some of the other respondents to this thread.

If you were generally a guy who bought strength, sold weakness, the last several weeks has had to be frustrating and unprofitable. If you were a guy who chased...ditto. If you were a guy who bought/sold retracements that probably has been frustrating as well...because we seem to be moving in a range. Moving averages intraday? Same thing...probably not working well.

The fact that anyone has a method that has worked in the past is irrelevant to Ms Market. She will simply do as she does, with no mind at all about your method. Whether this is a function of the summer doldrums...perhaps. Clearly it is reflecting the low VIX. (Or is the VIX reflecting the lower volatility).

Just an observation though: what is working very well right now is stock selection. Some stocks have been making very nice moves in this earnings period. So if you felt you had to focus on one thing, it has been to your detriment. Perhaps the indexes are over focused right now...I hope not, but perhaps they are. We'll see in another month or so as the summer winds to an end.

OldTrader
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OldTrader,

I appreciate your post, but your first paragraph is misguided. I did not ask about others' results as if they were using the same methods. If they were using the same methods, then I would already know their results. I was wondering how their methods have been treating them lately in actual ES trading. I have no doubt that some people are doing far better than I have been doing this summer. That's just how it goes. Again, I was just asking for a show of hands. I am not looking to be fixed. I don't need, nor did I ask for, a retrospective assessment. As you yourself wrote, what has "worked in the past is irrelevant to Ms Market." Therefore, I don't really care what I "should have done" since that no longer matters.

Why do I feel like a guy who just asked what time it was, and was then told by people what kind of watch I should wear and on which hand? :)

P.S. You still didn't answer the question. :)
 
Quote from OldTrader:

First let me say that I noted that you said "suggestions were not the purpose of this thread". Yet you ask about others results as if others are using the same method. Because let's face it...there IS a method right now that is working fine. It just isn't your method, or perhaps some of the other respondents to this thread.

If you were generally a guy who bought strength, sold weakness, the last several weeks has had to be frustrating and unprofitable. If you were a guy who chased...ditto. If you were a guy who bought/sold retracements that probably has been frustrating as well...because we seem to be moving in a range. Moving averages intraday? Same thing...probably not working well.

The fact that anyone has a method that has worked in the past is irrelevant to Ms Market. She will simply do as she does, with no mind at all about your method. Whether this is a function of the summer doldrums...perhaps. Clearly it is reflecting the low VIX. (Or is the VIX reflecting the lower volatility).

Just an observation though: what is working very well right now is stock selection. Some stocks have been making very nice moves in this earnings period. So if you felt you had to focus on one thing, it has been to your detriment. Perhaps the indexes are over focused right now...I hope not, but perhaps they are. We'll see in another month or so as the summer winds to an end.

OldTrader
More...


OT,

Great post, as usual.

I do not trade stocks so I cannot comment on that but I do position trade the equity indices (particularly ES) with fairly decent size - both on an intra-day and a multi-day basis. I am actually doing better than I was for the same period last year. I personally attribute this additional profitability mainly to keeping my stops well outside the trading range. The beauty of a non-trending market is that its not going against you in a hurry either.

IMHO, the most important skill for a trader is the ability to characterize a market successfully and objectively in his chosen timeframe (sometimes called market topography). In my case, most of my losses and profits result from my failure or success in this area alone.

Happy trading.:)
 
Quote from sputdr:

The summer is dead.

Just try and survive and reign in your expectations.

I'm getting into other mkt's like Oil and German debt.

Have a backup market.
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Same here the index futures are up a tad to much without any real pull back, and it appears they just like sitting in a 1% range for weeks on end. I think YM is running up on two weeks in a 1% range.


I like you have moved to different instruments, the EURO looks interesting as it has fallen for four months now and has been basing for about a month. I have been trading it from the long side and am doing very well.


If we get a nice 5% correction in the index futures I will give them a look over, but for the moment I have moved on.
 
Quote from 40Deuce:

you're too busy posting on ET
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If your talking to me your right, I have missed many intra-day moves by wasting time typing out messages on ET. I am focusing more on my work now, thanks for the reminder.
 
Quote from Ditch:

.... I think the increasing difficulty is due to the constant fight between black boxes, there are just almost no moves any more that are not completely retraced, ....
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This is what I have observed.

Of course ... I call this "Chop": That is complete retracement on any move .......

I simply have adapted by taking profits on smaller moves and by not trading as often - fewer signals as someone else said - and by taking offsetting positions in other markets.

So, the bottom line is I trade where i best view the opportunity and if there are fewer trade signals in a particular market then i trade something else that has more opportunity.

So, to answer your question, yes, there is a different dynamic going on right now in this market - temporary ? Most probably ....
 
Thunderdog wrote:

Why do I feel like a guy who just asked what time it was, and was then told by people what kind of watch I should wear and on which hand?

We're sorry we haven't paid attention to your original
question. Maybe so many are doing so badly they don't
want to answer truthfully.

No one will pay attention to this either, but, maybe next
time round, insist on a reply that is only a number (?)

5 = significantly better than average
4 = somewhat better than average
3 = average
2 = somewhat worse than average
1 = significanlty worse than average

My Best,

Stephen Szpak
 
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