Trading ES, reverse trade based stops

I spoke with someone recently about this experiment and his view is it's same as betting on red or black in roulette, can someone explain what he may be saying as I have no experience playing roulette.
 
romik said:
Trial period: 8 weeks
Profit: +$10,012.5 before commissions (+200.25 pts)
Total trades: 111 (46 wins, 60 losses, 5 b/evens)
ROI: 9.21%
Maximum drawdown: around -1.43% of equity.

I will carry on with this test in my private journal. Thank you to all for your participation.
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Evidently you didn't get the memo - consistently profitable trading can't be done

Personally..., I'm glad you missed it :)

Good Job Sir

RN
 
I don't see how your strategy has anything to do with roulette. The numbers don't match at all. Betting black or red in roulette would give you a 47.4% win percentage with a 1:1 payout. Obviously a losing proposition.

Your strategy has a 41.4% win percentage with a huge payout (Avg win/Avg loss). Totally different.
 
trader_zone11 said:
I don't see how your strategy has anything to do with roulette. The numbers don't match at all. Betting black or red in roulette would give you a 47.4% win percentage with a 1:1 payout. Obviously a losing proposition.

Your strategy has a 41.4% win percentage with a huge payout (Avg win/Avg loss). Totally different.
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That's what I thought, perhaps he meant some sort of betting strategy, he wouldn't go into detail.
 
Maybe, but that still wouldn't match what you are doing imo. Betting strategy always has to do with exploiting winning/losing streaks using position sizing. And you just trade 1 contract straight up every time. So you don't use any betting strategy.
 
trader_zone11 said:
Maybe, but that still wouldn't match what you are doing imo. Betting strategy always has to do with exploiting winning/losing streaks using position sizing. And you just trade 1 contract straight up every time. So you don't use any betting strategy.
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Position sizing remains the same, but is increased if a losing trade is greater in point value , which would be similar to increasing bets after a loss, like in Martingale.
 
Not sure I understand. Do you mean that after a loss your total account size drops and therefore the next 1 contract trade is a bigger bet relative to the account size ?
 
trader_zone11 said:
Not sure I understand. Do you mean that after a loss your total account size drops and therefore the next 1 contract trade is a bigger bet relative to the account size ?
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If an average loss is -5pts and then next loss comes in at -10 pts, that could be compared to doubling your next stake after a loss in Martingale strategy. I don't know, he didn't explain. Perhaps he meant that average reward could shrink in time, making it similar to 1:1 payout in R&B betting.
 
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