Trading Economic News Releases

[expiated]

AUDUSD turned bearish a couple of days ago and AUDJPY did the same a few days back.

They both have "mis-colored" daily candlesticks today, and in my estimation, their intraday trends just switched form bullish to bearish. Of the two, AUDJPY is doing a better job of trending, so what if I sell it at 76.049 and ignore it for a day or so—or at least for a few hours? Will it give me a return of 10, 20 or perhaps even 30 pips or more, or will it start climbing again and stop me out for a loss?

I'm curious to find out, so I think that's what I'll try.

 

[expiated]

Friday / August 21, 2020 / 4:50 AM PST

What if I sell AUDJPY at 76.049 and ignore it for a day or so—or at least for a few hours? Will it give me a return of 10, 20 or perhaps even 30 pips or more, or will it start climbing again and stop me out for a loss? I'm curious to find out, so I think that's what I'll try.

From my "Mis-colored Daily Candlesticks" thread...

Given that this is Friday, I won't necessarily be looking for any additional trades this week. I'll have to see what happens after the last bit of economic data begins to be released at 5:30 AM PST.

 

[expiated]

Recognize that the four-hour price range is the foundation on which price action is built. Not four-hour charts mind you, but four-hour price ranges. Conceptualize them as akin to the backbone of the Forex market, on which the rest of the “body” is constructed.

At the moment, this appears to me to be key. I am therefore switching from this thread to my Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analysis thread with this perspective to test it out.

 

[christielowe]

That’s how everyone else will take it. The market can make you learn what you never thought of learning.

 

[expiated]

Monday / March 15, 2021 / 7:20 PM PST

It might be that continued attempts at improving execution when applying the system—of doing a better job interpreting price action based on the relationships existing between the various elements plotted on my charts and the heightened accuracy and detail they offer—is helping me to remain in trades a little bit longer, which in turn kindled the notion just now that the added precision might also enhance trading during the release of economic data.

There was a period when I avoided trading during such times. However, given that my analysis of historical data included all time periods, the behavior of exchange rates during these hours is baked into the system. Since its mechanisms take into account what happens during such intervals, things reached the point some time ago where I was no longer even glancing at the economic calendar before executing my trades.

But, with how the culminating configuration of my charts may be leading me to extend my take-profit targets, I’m thinking that at this time, I might actually want to make a point of trading during news releases.

I feel charts like the one below make it easy to tell in which direction rates are headed, and the lower panel oscillator greatly facilitates the decision-making process on where to enter positions and where to take profit, more-or-less buying when the oscillator spikes below the lower dotted line (or bold rosy brown line), and locking in gains at or above the upper band of the blue and crimson envelope.

"I’m thinking that at this time, I might actually want to make a point of trading during news releases."

This might be true now even more than it was back in August of 2020, the reason being that the tactic I began applying this morning to the purchase of Nadex binary options calls for waiting until price reaches specific levels designated in advance; and often times, the only way rates reach such levels is when forced to do so under the influence of fresh economic data.

"I feel charts like the one below make it easy to tell in which direction rates are headed, and the lower panel oscillator greatly facilitates the decision-making process on where to enter positions and where to take profit, more-or-less buying when the oscillator spikes below the lower dotted line (or bold rosy brown line), and locking in gains at or above the upper band of the blue and crimson envelope."

I'm now more inclined to enter positions in accordance with predesignated temporal/statistical support/resistance levels, set my take-profit target as much as 100 pips away, and then adjust my stop loss and take-profit target upon observing price action losing its momentum, whether that happens after advancing just a handful of pips, or several dozen. As a result, I regularly have 0.01-lot-sized trades that net, not just 51ȼ or $1.47, but $3 or $5, and on rare occasions, even as much as $16.00.

As of today, I have increased my standard lot size to 0.02. (I hope to be trading full Lots by the end of this year.)