<i>"ER2 is my favorite stock index instrument. But I gotta tell you, it has reduced me to tears so many times in the past, trying to trade this animal with less than $2,000, that I finally smartened up."</i>
Once upon a time the ER was pure gravy to trade. Smooth, wide swings and trendy in nature. That lasted for a few years, but it's changed dramatically of late.
Yesterday and especially today I saw the bid/ask spread a steady two-ticks wide... sometimes three ticks wide in the first hour of trading. Bid 698.10 ~ ask 698.30 and would trade next fill at 698.40 or 698.60
Also made a number of 1 index point ~ 2 index point whipsaws counter to the overall direction it was heading. Size on the dome is 1/2 to 1/3 what it was mid-year 2007. Hence the illiquidity and issues that follow.
I'd be surprised if there are 10 people total in this entire forum who have turned more ER2 contracts than I have since 2004. Trust me when I say it is a very different animal now than before, and much more difficult to trade for everybody.
I'd opine that a majority of former retail traders in ER either blew out and quit when volatility ramped, switched to other markets or some combination of both. Migration to ICE and uncertainty of its future also plays a role.
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In a perfect world the ER could handle 20-lots or bigger, keep a tight 1-tick bid/ask spread and limit the counter-move spikes and whips to a minimum. Give us that and it'd be no problem to average +50pts to +80pts ER monthly ten out of twelve times per year.
About two ER sessions on average per week now are still gravy... but the other two - three are just like today. Sketchy to brutal.
This applies to all systems, methods and approachs in ER without exception. No one or nothing is immune to widened spreads, erratic movement and rogue spikes knocking out stops every which way. The days of stepping into ER and knocking it out of the park every session are, I'm afraid, over with. The dome and charts do not lie.
As for the ES, it was only choppy midday. The first hour and final hour were pretty clear trading, as I imagine the YM and NQ were too. The only symbol with real liquidity = erratic behavior issues right now is ER. Very good advice for small accounts to work the NQ or YM instead.