I have often wondered if the leveling of the playing field and the advent of computerized trading has any longer term effects on the shrinking ranges of the markets, rather than just a cylical thing....
Trading dying a slow death
- Thread starter sputdr
- Start date
I just started running my own semi-automated system over the past two weeks after two years of research and some limited discretionary trading. Very nice results so far.
It is a tough racket for sure - I'm not sure it's ever been different though, I just think 99% of people don't have the make-up for it. You do anything remotely obvious and you will get hosed.
Going mechanical has so many advantages, including not having to fight your own pyschology as much (a lot of people can probably come up with something that works, but far fewer can actually take the trauma that comes with executing it), using statistics to figure out when your edge is gone, the "noise" doesn't affect you as much, and so on.
It is a tough racket for sure - I'm not sure it's ever been different though, I just think 99% of people don't have the make-up for it. You do anything remotely obvious and you will get hosed.
Going mechanical has so many advantages, including not having to fight your own pyschology as much (a lot of people can probably come up with something that works, but far fewer can actually take the trauma that comes with executing it), using statistics to figure out when your edge is gone, the "noise" doesn't affect you as much, and so on.
I expect to see a lot more volatility in equities next year, the four year cyle low is due in October 2006 and is one of the most
reliable of all market cycles.
I think we will see the S&P below 1000 at some point next year
and the VIX over 25.
reliable of all market cycles.
I think we will see the S&P below 1000 at some point next year
and the VIX over 25.
There are a lot of people making money right now. They just dont talk about it.
I can see that. Amazing how we've now gone three straight years without a single front-page headline dramatic market drop.
Especially considering that every single year from 1996 to 2002 had exhibited large one day dips.
Especially considering that every single year from 1996 to 2002 had exhibited large one day dips.
Good trading is really relative to a traders P&L and risk/reward. Surely, you can't assume that everyone is doing the same as you. There will always be guys doing worse, and guys doing better. If you find yourself struggling, its not the market, its you. Roll up your sleaves and figure out a way to make money. If I took this attitude I wouldnt have made it past my 6th month.
