You can, just need to be smart about it.
Think about these items:
- there may be seasonality (some months might show higher numbers than others because of some unrelated item, e.g. tax payments or when new visas get issued, etc.)
- distribution should be normal, so moves beyond 1-2std should be reviewed (when has it happened in the past and how did the market react? what was the backdrop?)
- understanding how NFP impacts the demand for local currency
- Understanding how NFP impacts policy makers (fiscal and monetary -- remember that central banks typically have a mandate to reduce unemployment)
- understand where the currency and rates are trading relative to peers
- typically trust the move in rates more than the move in fx
Then, look at some forward looking data to get a feel as to what's going on:
- Rolling 4wk unemployment insurance claims
- Comments on employment in PMI (mfg & svcs)
- etc.
Then, have a view on what's driving the trend in NFP
- EXAMPLE: "as lockdowns continue to roll through the economy, I expect NFP will be very volatile, with falling NFP post-lockdown announcements and bottoming out around the time employers think policy makers will lift restrictions"
- "therefore, an NFP print that is very high, given the backdrop, is likely to be noisy and contain artifacts -- watch the move in rates but generally fade an NFP rally"
When something can't be kept simple and stupid, I just avoid it.