Quote from jprad:
The liquidity you're referring to is artificial because it exceeds the total production of the underlying commodities. If anything, that increases volatility because it allows prices to get pushed far in excess of what it would be if the players had to produce or accept delivery of some of the contracts they bought or sold.
I don't like to be rude, but pal,You know nothing about the futures markets. I Trade physical Grains as a exporter and I trade energy related spreads. Look how volatile are the onions and garlic in the cash market, is over 300% bigger than most grains.
the Indian Government banned futures trade in wheat, rice, tur and urad 2 years ago, The ban had not led to decrease in prices of these commodities, in fact, The prices in those commodities increased by about 26 per cent. Similarly, in case of tur, the price of tur continued to rise despite ban. In case of urad, the declining trend continued even after the ban, which was also indicated by the futures.
The same thing happens here in the states with onions and potatoes, they banned the Onions from futures trading in 1958, after that the prices in onion makes the swings in oil and corn look tame.
Can You imagine what will happen to the transportation industry, materials industry, export-import industry etc, if the Ban the especulators from the market?, How American Airline will hedge they'r Jet Fuel and against who?.
Our government having shot itself in the foot repeatedly and noticing it somehow missed the big toe takes careful aim and squeezes the trigger. Oil prices are being affected by money flooding (FED, Central Banks) into commodities seeking to leverage against the expected inflation that will be caused by.
Much of this speculative hedging is not in futures contracts or derivatives, but is actual physical oil stored in tankers anchored off the coast of Malaysia. Physical oil located outside of the United States and Europe is immune to a possibile seizure by tyrranical governments on the grounds of "national emergency."
What makes this inlation hedge even better is that the major banks who have been flooded with newly created money by the Bank of England, the European Central bank and by the Federal Reserve System will gladly make 80% to 90% margin commodily loans at very low interest rates to their large institutional customers.
Do you understand how regulated are the refinery industry in this country and much you pay in taxes per gallons?.. Do you want to know why nobody in the private sector wants to invest in new tech or new refinery in this industry?.
The real villan here are those bureaucrats in washington and those people like GS and their washington authorized ponzi scheme with those ETF funds.