Trading - can we discuss the use of volume?

[fordewind]

volume only works in company with volatility

 

[Sprout]

On a very fine thread posted by maybe the funniest guy around here, a discussion of volume came up.

One poster, also a very fine lad, posted a picture of a chart, and claimed, based on both price and volume metrics, you could tell essentially where a bottom was and the uptrend started.

Another poster, himself quite a fine lad, posted another picture of a chart, but this time with trend lines drawn on it. He maintained that the volume was essentially irrelevant - at the very least the price action itself was much, much more important. Volume might provide some insight sometimes, but other times it gives the wrong signal.

So what does everyone think? When I was a kid studying this stuff I always read that going up or down on high volume was a sign of great strength/weakness, since it meant lots of people were buying/selling, thus the market had "breadth". This never made much sense to me - sure, a stock going up on great volume means there are a lots of buyers, but for every share or unit bought, doesn't there have to be a share of unit sold? You can say "a stock going up on high volume means lots of people are interested in it." But can't you turn right back around and say "a stock going up on low volume means there are lots of people not willing to sell at that price and think they can get more!!!"

Thoughts?

Thanks.

There is a paradigm where Volume is the leading indicator of price.

Yes, price can go through markup on low volume.


To get an insight on volume, one starts with discerning Dominance and non-Dominance in relationship with the ten cases of price.

There’s an operating order of events that continuous dual auction markets have by the nature of their structure.

The above is an unconventional viewpoint. The only way to understand it is to do drills to affect one’s sensing and perception to operate in an entirely different paradigm than the one that supports conventional wisdom.

The work is difficult to start, the rewards are great, a road less traveled becomes simple and clear but starts amid paradox, confusion and frustration.

 

[Xela]

Additionally, how do they have volume on a forex chart?

Forex futures have volume available, just like any other futures; in the case of spot forex, for which market volume obviously isn't available, all that's being displayed as volume is the "broker's" own volume (which is essentially nonsense, of course, but some of the people who trade spot don't appreciate that).

 

[Money Trust]

I've noticed that most people who use volume always do so in hindsight. In my own case, however, I find wave volume to be pretty useful in spotting turning points. Individual bar volume? I can't do anything with it unless it's to identify a potential buying or selling climax.

 

[Xela]

I've noticed that most people who use volume always do so in hindsight.

I would think that's probably right (at least within a forum context - but it's perhaps true of "most people who use most things", within a forum context, at least in the sense that all forum examples are inherently anecdotal and subject to selection-bias?).

I use volume to construct my charts, in the sense that the price-bars are defined according to volumes transacted, so it's kind of "essential", to me.

In my own case, however, I find wave volume to be pretty useful in spotting turning points.

I've heard surfers say exactly the same thing about wave volume (but it doesn't seem to stop some of them from coming off their boards, anyway).

Individual bar volume? I can't do anything with it ...

Mine are all the same volume: I can't do anything without it.

(And congratulations on your 1,000th post here, Money Trust.)

 

[Sprout]

I would think that's probably right (at least within a forum context - but it's perhaps true of "most people who use most things", within a forum context, at least in the sense that all forum examples are inherently anecdotal and subject to selection-bias?).

I use volume to construct my charts, in the sense that the price-bars are defined according to volumes transacted, so it's kind of "essential", to me.





I've heard surfers say exactly the same thing about wave volume (but it doesn't seem to stop some of them from coming off their boards, anyway).

Mine are all the same volume: I can't do anything without it.

(And congratulations on your 1,000th post here, Money Trust.)

Xela, have you explored volume pace as it relates to cvb’s?

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...if-you-use-constant-volume-bars.157931/page-3

 

[Scataphagos]

Individual bar volume? I can't do anything with it unless it's to identify a potential buying or selling climax.

What do you do when price turns and the "volume is a whimper" instead of presumedly climactic?

Years ago, about 90% of the volume was retail. (Volume may have been more useful then.... and still may be on individual issues. But what about "the market"... stock indices?)

Then it shifted to be about 80% "institutional".

Today we hear that up to 70% of trade volume is "algorithmic... executed by bots".

How does your "analysis" of volume take that into consideration?

 

[lcranston]

If one views price as a bar or candle rather than as a series of buying and selling waves, then "volume" is not likely to be of much benefit. If he also views volume as a bar or candle rather than as the number of traders involved in the transaction and he also considers the number of traders involved in the transaction to be of no importance, then "volume" will be even less likely to be of much benefit.

When a great many traders have been involved in propelling price to a certain level and then the participants suddenly disappear, what is most likely to happen? Does one want to be hanging around when it does?

When a great many traders have been involved in propelling price to a certain level and then they cannot propel it further, what is most likely to happen? Does one want to be hanging around when it does?

 

[Scataphagos]

Let's assume your proposition is correct.

Wouldn't you get the same message from Price TA at the same time... making any volume consideration at best redundant?

 

[Xela]

Xela, have you explored volume pace as it relates to cvb’s?

Not so much "explored": I trade from fast enough charts just to be able to see how long the bars take to form, so I've never really been aware of an issue about that (but I suppose there's nothing to stop people from displaying timed bars as well, if they really want to?).

I'm perhaps too insular to be significantly aware of "other's people's issues", and my expectation of understanding "other people's charts" is always really low: when I do occasionally look at them in any detail, I almost invariably decide that I wouldn't have drawn the lines on them in the same places as they're shown, anyway.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...if-you-use-constant-volume-bars.157931/page-3

Thanks very much - interesting: I'd never seen that thread, before. Reading it, I must admit I found myself thinking - for the first 25 posts - what Jack Hershey finally pointed out in post #26 ("the OP will not be able to process this contribution because of his confusion caused by how he links unlinkable dimensions of the market"). I'll have to investigate some more of JH's posts, some time. I think I'm kind of from a different generation of traders from most people who've written online about volume-bars, which are my "normal" and probably the only kind I really understand.