Trading bubble

Opportunities: GM was a gift at $31/share!!!

MSO ran from 15 to 35 and then back down to 20. That is a total of 35 points and if you were not aware of this fact you need to turn on the sound of the TV.

APPL went from 25 to 75.

Homebuilders have gone up for two years.

Oil and oil service??? duh

AIG went from $70 down to $50 and back to $60. A total of 30 points and this is a DOW 30 stock!!! It was in the news almost every day!!!

I have always believed that a small trader cannot make money trading anything but equities. The big boys with the giant computers are trading the indices, FX etc etc. You, as a little guy, are trading against the house. Almost all will lose their money.

I have a friend who bought 2000 shares of GOOG on the offering. There is money to be made.

There is an old saying "Migrate, mutate, adapt or die"

SteveD
 
Who said nothing moves? Nobody's arguing there isn't money made or to be made. The argument is that the risk involved to do so has gone up a *lot*, to the point where it's almost a 50/50 of something happening and that nothing will.

Many styles of trading simply aren't working the way they did even 1-2 years ago.

What about the hundreds that *looked* like they were about to move and instead went the other way, or worse, went nowhere?
Those get neglected but it's those trades that chop way at the other good gains.


Quote from SteveD:

Opportunities: GM was a gift at $31/share!!!

MSO ran from 15 to 35 and then back down to 20. That is a total of 35 points and if you were not aware of this fact you need to turn on the sound of the TV.

APPL went from 25 to 75.

Homebuilders have gone up for two years.

Oil and oil service??? duh

AIG went from $70 down to $50 and back to $60. A total of 30 points and this is a DOW 30 stock!!! It was in the news almost every day!!!

I have always believed that a small trader cannot make money trading anything but equities. The big boys with the giant computers are trading the indices, FX etc etc. You, as a little guy, are trading against the house. Almost all will lose their money.

I have a friend who bought 2000 shares of GOOG on the offering. There is money to be made.

There is an old saying "Migrate, mutate, adapt or die"

SteveD
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Quote from Casey30:


Oh, and who cares what you make PER HOUR of trading. What really matters is how much you make total at the end of the month and the end of the year. I have never heard anyone come up with such a great way to massage their numbers as this PER HOUR accounting. But hey, whatever makes you feel better.
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It's not massaging but a certain viewpoint. I have a part time side job that is per hour, $24-26 to be exact.
I make 100k+ with trading and my side job. I put in 40-60 hours a week. I do most of my research at my side job. That how I breakdown it down. I'm sure Im not rich or super traders like you & your crew but I'm satisfied with my position in the current market conditions. Once it actually does get better, I'll re-adjust my hours.
 
Casey30,

I could not agree more with your post. I too have been trading for about 5 years but seriously for just over 2.(Where I now do it for a living)

Trading is my passion, and my profession. Even after all this time I still find it difficult to be away from the markets. Even If I do not have trades on.

I spend my summers in Russia and the rest of the year in California. i prefer Russia for trading because I can trade both European and American markets (US markets are open from 5:30-12 am our time) I structure my life around the markets in either country. few of my friends understand, fortunatly, my husband does as he trades as well though not as often.

I would like to write a more intellegent, and insigtful message but it is 3 am here and I need to get some sleep :) I just wanted to let you know that there are other traders who think/feel as you do and who still find enough opportunities in the markets to make a living. sure, it's harder but if you love what you do it is really not work.

I will be gone for a couple of days but I will look for your response (or anyone elses) on this thread when I return I hope to start a dialoge alonge the lines of those who love to trade.

Good bye for now
 
Quote from Hydroblunt:

It's not massaging but a certain viewpoint. I have a part time side job that is per hour, $24-26 to be exact.
I make 100k+ with trading and my side job. I put in 40-60 hours a week. I do most of my research at my side job. That how I breakdown it down. I'm sure Im not rich or super traders like you & your crew but I'm satisfied with my position in the current market conditions. Once it actually does get better, I'll re-adjust my hours.
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I apologize for being so agressive in that previous post. Sometimes this message board will eat you alive when you post a dessenting opinion. We all live one life and if you are satisfied with where you are curently, that is really all that matters. I am happy with what I have accomplished but unfortunately I am not satisified and therefore continue to plug away at the markets almost religiously.

I just continue to believe things really aren't all that bad, and when people start talking like things are getting worse as time goes on, it becomes easier to believe that this is the case and that we all will suffer declining returns going out to infinity. When in reality, things always change, and you simply need to adjust and learn to make the same amount of money or more in the markets. Remember, the mind can convince you many a things, even if they are not true.
 
Quote from TradinByThe Sea:

Casey30,

I could not agree more with your post. I too have been trading for about 5 years but seriously for just over 2.(Where I now do it for a living)

Trading is my passion, and my profession. Even after all this time I still find it difficult to be away from the markets. Even If I do not have trades on.

I spend my summers in Russia and the rest of the year in California. i prefer Russia for trading because I can trade both European and American markets (US markets are open from 5:30-12 am our time) I structure my life around the markets in either country. few of my friends understand, fortunatly, my husband does as he trades as well though not as often.

I would like to write a more intellegent, and insigtful message but it is 3 am here and I need to get some sleep :) I just wanted to let you know that there are other traders who think/feel as you do and who still find enough opportunities in the markets to make a living. sure, it's harder but if you love what you do it is really not work.

I will be gone for a couple of days but I will look for your response (or anyone elses) on this thread when I return I hope to start a dialoge alonge the lines of those who love to trade.

Good bye for now
More...

I really appreciate this responce, it is hard for my friends to agree that the extent of my dedication to the markets is normal or even healthy. Even though the traders in my group are committed and dedicated, I am sure they also sometimes wonder the same thing about me at times as my other friends do. I do however find that when traders start to make real money they somehow start to take trading more seriously and begin to really enjoy it(for obvious reasons of course). I just really love the markets and I have been fascinated with them for most of my life. I think this transcends into how I handle my job and my outlook on trading as what I feel will be a long-term career.

I remember when I started I couldn't sleep some nights cause I was so excited for the next day. Sometimes I still get that feeling. Anyways, I will end it there with the touchy feely stuff.

I find it really interesting that you trade both markets and from Russia at times, that is great. Now that would be heaven for me. However, I don't think my girlfriend would let me get a way with that for too long. Otherwise I wouldn't have one, at least not the same one. Just kidding.
 
Quote from Casey30:

I couldn't disagree more with this whole thread, doom and gloom all over your faces. It is almost like you are all self-defeatists. If you enter the arena with that attitude everyday no wonder your returns are dwindling. ...
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Hi Casey,

What you are alluding to is a fair cross section of what's frying in the kettle. Let the nimble welcome all arena participants, whether self-defeatist trading bubblers or not.
:)
 
Quote from Hydroblunt:


I'm talking about the influx of day traders/traders for god knows what reason. I did not say "equities bubble" or "RE bubble", I said "trading bubble" meaning way too many traders without any fundamentals. Just like every other shmoe in CA & FL wants to be a RE speculator, every other Joe Shmoe is being masqueraded as a trader by the brokerage industry. The big difference is that the equities & futures markets are nowhere near the right condition
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I saw a lot more wanna be traders rushing in to trade back in 1997-2000 than today. Brokerage firms have not done much more than roll out more services at lower costs, not much different than a lot of technological innovations. PC's cost an arm and leg 15 years ago .. as the technology matured we paid less $$ for more (RAM, hard drive, etc.). Same with trading ... 10 years ago it was $25/trade plus ECN's costs ... now you can make similar trades for $5 or so each way. Technology gives us more (news feeds, real time tools, etc.) at lower costs. And to say the markets are nowhere the right condition ... that depends on ones trading style. Adapting to (current) conditions is a big part of the process of evolving as a trader.
 
Casey30,

Sorry I took so long to respond, I went flat and spent most of the week at my husbands familys dacha. It is like a farm without animals located 100 K from Moscow. I printed up my charts and reviewd them in the evenings. days I spent harvesting and repairing things. Exchanging mental labor for physical :)

My husband trades as well, but only currencies, he has been trading them for years, well, before internet trading. He does not trade as frequently as I do, nor does he have the same interest in the markets as I do. In fact, I do most of his charting for him :)

I agree with you regarding peoples thoughts on the trading lifestyle. In America, my freinds and some family affectionatly call me "Trading Geek" and when I talk about the markets they roll their eyes. in Russia, most of them look at me like I am an alien when I explain what I do for a living. Especially the ones who live outside Moscow. Try expaining the markets and trading to people that do not even have indoor plumbing- lol

In general, I somewhat dread the question "What do you do for a living?" Because when I answer, I usually get one of these responses: (also, I am a resonably attractive women in my 30s so I do not fit peoples image of a trader):

"Wow, I just bought 1K shares of XXYY because my brother-n-law told me it is the next big thing. Do you think it is going up?"

"Are you a daytrader? isn't that risky? How do you sleep at night? (When I have better money management skills then most everyone I know. I want to ask them "How do you sleep at night knowing you owe 50K on your credit cards :) )

"Can you help me figure out my 401K plan"

and lastly,

"Wow, you must be rich."

well, I am sure you can add to the list, in fact do, it would be interesting. I am sure it is much the same type of thing that police, fireman, doctors ect. get when asked what they do. Alot of preconcieved notions.

It is nice having the ability to trade 2 markets without being exhausted, When I am in California and try to trade Europe I am usually exhausted by the time the NASDAQ opens. I don't like trading when I am not in top form even though I plan my trades in advance, I am not as quick to respond when conditions change.

As far as your girlfriend is concerned is she cool with the trading lifestyle? You could always trade Asia or depending on where you are located. Currencies work well too since it is a 24 hr market and it is much easier to chart/trade. IMHO

If I may ask, Where is your trading room located ?
 
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