Trading BTC can beat HODL

[Ed48]

It may be possible but it would be far from easy.

Starting in 2015, when BTC was around $200, you'd need to achieve 100x (10,000%) to even match HODL @ $20k, and that's including the current 70% drawdown.

https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg2920ztgCzl

And before anyone points out the obvious, yes, past performance is no guarantee of future results, and HODLing BTC may not work out so well in future. But, whatever BTC does over the next few years, beating HODL with trading won't be easy either.

 

[maxinger]

only newbies and investors investing based on hope/faith use the term HODL.

Traders don't use the term HODL.

You should delete HODL from your vocabulary.
and replace it with

AH-SIP
Always have STOP in Place


or
TIYF
Trend Is Your Friend

or NHODL
NEVER HOLD ON TO DEAR LIFE!

 

[HolyGrailSeeker]

True it is very hard to beat HODL if you get in at a good price, although its still possible.

 

[David's faith]

Well if you short it maybe you bear every hodler there is. Depends on how far price goes down. Zero bid is possible but not likely

 

[The_Krakenite]

It may be possible but it would be far from easy.

Sure it can be easy. Just leverage and use a Pelosi crystal ball.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

A single profitable trade beat HODLing WorldCom

 

[Ed48]

True it is very hard to beat HODL if you get in at a good price, although its still possible.

Yes but probably only for good traders. It would be interesting to know these numbers:

a) % of Bitcoin traders who end up losing money (negative PnL)
b) % of Bitcoin traders who have a positive PnL
c) % of Bitcoin traders who beat buy & hold

I'm guessing even (b) is small, and I bet (c) is tiny.

 

[deaddog]

It may be possible but it would be far from easy.

Starting in 2015, when BTC was around $200, you'd need to achieve 100x (10,000%) to even match HODL @ $20k, and that's including the current 70% drawdown.

https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg2920ztgCzl

And before anyone points out the obvious, yes, past performance is no guarantee of future results, and HODLing BTC may not work out so well in future. But, whatever BTC does over the next few years, beating HODL with trading won't be easy either.

Not sure what trading method you are using. And I agree that looking back is easy.
If you use a trend following system and buy and sell when the trend breaks I think you beat buy and hold.
The system is long only. you buy when the trend changes.
Throw up a weekly chart with a 30 week moving average
Buy when a bar closes above the ma and sell when it closes below.

 

[Ed48]

Only backtesting (Monte Carlo) would reveal whether that would have consistently beaten buy & hold.

And it would have to have beaten buy & hold by a wide margin (or at least substantially reduced drawdowns) for it to be even worth the bother. And there's always the risk that it underperforms going forward.

For the vast majority of people, buy & hold is the best strategy. With Bitcoin, you just have to accept that it's a really wild ride, and if you invest money you can't afford to lose then you could end bitterly regretting it.

 

[sebking1986]

Of course it is possible but as with stocks trading few traders outperform the market if they just dollar cost averaged into index funds. If you think bitcoin is worth investing in and aren't a solid trader then I'd suggest the same method will be for you.